imagination and put their creativity in practice. It is important to train them in this
direction, so that they know what to do when a disaster occurs.
The media can be very helpful in communicating cyclone class warnings to the
public, with the latest information being relayed regularly on the press and radio
channels. This is good management by the media.
However, many people, in Mauritius, will recall hearing journalists trying to
obtain scoops for their own organization: when a Class 1 warning has been
announced, they will ask – when will you announce a Class 3 warning? When will
the cyclone come to Mauritius?
As yet, nobody has asked: “when will it be over ?”.
Earlier, it was explained that drivers slowing down to watch the scene of an
accident may, in fact, be hindering the progress of other traffic and medical attendants. Similarly, sometimes journalists will announce, in advance, a trap the police
has set to catch a criminal or terrorist. In doing so, the journalists, in fact, undermine
the operation itself. On a more day to day level, should a driver who is driving too
fast be warned by the radio or otherwise that there is speed trap – when he is a
potential danger to ALL other road users, not only at that location, but everywhere
else where he drives!!
However, when the authorities do not release any information in due time, it goes
without saying, that all sorts of rumours will start, and amplify as time goes by, every
hour or day.
But, how do the decision makers react during the crisis? Whatever the risk, there
is difference between reality and the perception of this reality. Imagine that there two
lotteries:
Lottery A offers a prize of Rs. 1000,000 – the organisers sell 120,000 tickets at
Rs. 10 each.
Lottery B offers a prize of Rs. 1000,000 – the organisers sell 12,000 tickets at
Rs. 100 each.
Most people will prefer buying Rs. 500 of lottery A, because they are “sure” they
have more chances of winning with the 50 tickets of lottery A than with the 5 tickets
of lottery B!
In the same way, the certain death of 100 people is less acceptable than a 0.2
probability of seeing 500 persons die. The two results are similar, except that one is a
certainty, while the other is given in terms of probability.
An extension to this rule is that we prefer security when there is gain/benefit,
while we take risks when there will be losses.
It is easier to deal with an isolated crisis rather than within a chain of risks.
Cyclonic conditions may entail disruption of road transport, water, electricity supplies, etc. Such conditions occur after all hurricanes, cyclones or typhoons, as
experienced either by local inhabitants or as observed from television.
But, in spite of the minor flood occurrence on 13th February 2013 (thus a warning
of possible flood conditions) in Port Louis, the authorities seem to have been taken
unawares during the 30
th March 2013 heavy rains.
12.9 Management of Disasters
349
direction, so that they know what to do when a disaster occurs.
The media can be very helpful in communicating cyclone class warnings to the
public, with the latest information being relayed regularly on the press and radio
channels. This is good management by the media.
However, many people, in Mauritius, will recall hearing journalists trying to
obtain scoops for their own organization: when a Class 1 warning has been
announced, they will ask – when will you announce a Class 3 warning? When will
the cyclone come to Mauritius?
As yet, nobody has asked: “when will it be over ?”.
Earlier, it was explained that drivers slowing down to watch the scene of an
accident may, in fact, be hindering the progress of other traffic and medical attendants. Similarly, sometimes journalists will announce, in advance, a trap the police
has set to catch a criminal or terrorist. In doing so, the journalists, in fact, undermine
the operation itself. On a more day to day level, should a driver who is driving too
fast be warned by the radio or otherwise that there is speed trap – when he is a
potential danger to ALL other road users, not only at that location, but everywhere
else where he drives!!
However, when the authorities do not release any information in due time, it goes
without saying, that all sorts of rumours will start, and amplify as time goes by, every
hour or day.
But, how do the decision makers react during the crisis? Whatever the risk, there
is difference between reality and the perception of this reality. Imagine that there two
lotteries:
Lottery A offers a prize of Rs. 1000,000 – the organisers sell 120,000 tickets at
Rs. 10 each.
Lottery B offers a prize of Rs. 1000,000 – the organisers sell 12,000 tickets at
Rs. 100 each.
Most people will prefer buying Rs. 500 of lottery A, because they are “sure” they
have more chances of winning with the 50 tickets of lottery A than with the 5 tickets
of lottery B!
In the same way, the certain death of 100 people is less acceptable than a 0.2
probability of seeing 500 persons die. The two results are similar, except that one is a
certainty, while the other is given in terms of probability.
An extension to this rule is that we prefer security when there is gain/benefit,
while we take risks when there will be losses.
It is easier to deal with an isolated crisis rather than within a chain of risks.
Cyclonic conditions may entail disruption of road transport, water, electricity supplies, etc. Such conditions occur after all hurricanes, cyclones or typhoons, as
experienced either by local inhabitants or as observed from television.
But, in spite of the minor flood occurrence on 13th February 2013 (thus a warning
of possible flood conditions) in Port Louis, the authorities seem to have been taken
unawares during the 30
th March 2013 heavy rains.
12.9 Management of Disasters
349