10.5.3 Managing Uncertainties
Although global warming with increases is an established fact, the uncertainties
revolve around the scale, timing and nature of the exact change in the climate.
The uncertainty arises partly, from uncertainty in future emissions and partly,
from the nature in which the climate system behaves. This is not easy to model at the
regional level. Thus, it is difficult to predict exactly what future climate to adapt to.
As a parallel with other sectors (exchange rate forecasting, energy costs and R&D
outcomes), where uncertainty does not hamper action, a structured approach to
infrastructure decision taking adaptation decisions should include the following
steps:
• Establish what the decision-maker is trying to achieve.
• Consider the vulnerability of the goal(s) to present-day climate and future climate
scenarios.
• Establish and appraise possible adaptation options to mitigate the risks.
There are, generally, low-regrets options (see Chap. 16) that deliver immediate
benefits and are insensitive to accurate climate change predictions. These alternatives can be implemented immediately without needing to continue further in the
decision-making process.
10.5.4 Balancing Priorities
When nothing is certain without any immediate occurrence, there is a tendency to
delay any action for later. Similarly, given the uncertainties associated with climate
change and its possible long-term effects, there is, unfortunately, the danger of
delaying any important (and probably urgent) action. (Diamond 2011). (see also
Chap. 4). In particular, investors and infrastructure operators are more focussed on
the short term events and results.
The implications include, that decision makers do not devote sufficient attention
to possible climate change impacts, both for regulated and unregulated sectors,
where lack of capital and/or management time may act as constraints on the road
to climate change adaptation. Although climate change adaptation is a long-term
challenge, the arguments given in Chap. 5 about the time scale of infrastructure
investment and the prevailing climate vulnerability challenges, should convince that
proactive planning and implementing measures are needed now.
This shows that, while other priorities need to be balanced against climate
resilience, it is necessary to emphasise the importance of adaptation across infrastructure companies and investors. This can be effectively implemented, only when
adaptation is fully integrated into the business planning and operation of infrastructure stakeholders.
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10 Climate Change and Infrastructure
Although global warming with increases is an established fact, the uncertainties
revolve around the scale, timing and nature of the exact change in the climate.
The uncertainty arises partly, from uncertainty in future emissions and partly,
from the nature in which the climate system behaves. This is not easy to model at the
regional level. Thus, it is difficult to predict exactly what future climate to adapt to.
As a parallel with other sectors (exchange rate forecasting, energy costs and R&D
outcomes), where uncertainty does not hamper action, a structured approach to
infrastructure decision taking adaptation decisions should include the following
steps:
• Establish what the decision-maker is trying to achieve.
• Consider the vulnerability of the goal(s) to present-day climate and future climate
scenarios.
• Establish and appraise possible adaptation options to mitigate the risks.
There are, generally, low-regrets options (see Chap. 16) that deliver immediate
benefits and are insensitive to accurate climate change predictions. These alternatives can be implemented immediately without needing to continue further in the
decision-making process.
10.5.4 Balancing Priorities
When nothing is certain without any immediate occurrence, there is a tendency to
delay any action for later. Similarly, given the uncertainties associated with climate
change and its possible long-term effects, there is, unfortunately, the danger of
delaying any important (and probably urgent) action. (Diamond 2011). (see also
Chap. 4). In particular, investors and infrastructure operators are more focussed on
the short term events and results.
The implications include, that decision makers do not devote sufficient attention
to possible climate change impacts, both for regulated and unregulated sectors,
where lack of capital and/or management time may act as constraints on the road
to climate change adaptation. Although climate change adaptation is a long-term
challenge, the arguments given in Chap. 5 about the time scale of infrastructure
investment and the prevailing climate vulnerability challenges, should convince that
proactive planning and implementing measures are needed now.
This shows that, while other priorities need to be balanced against climate
resilience, it is necessary to emphasise the importance of adaptation across infrastructure companies and investors. This can be effectively implemented, only when
adaptation is fully integrated into the business planning and operation of infrastructure stakeholders.
302
10 Climate Change and Infrastructure