10.4.2 Vulnerability Approach
Throughout history, civilisations have always responded to climate and weather
fluctuations by adjusting to prevalent climate variability and extremes, either
through technology or through nomadic travel. The contemporary climate change
calls for adjustments to both current climate as well as to forthcoming climates.
Climate change research deals with many uncertainties and estimations. Our knowledge of climate processes, of the interactions between scientific and socioeconomic
factors affecting climate change, and the unknown possible future responses from
society to climate change, is imperfect and inadequate. This makes predicting future
climate scenarios and the effects of those circumstances on infrastructure (and
services) extremely difficult. Defining strategies to adapt to climate change in such
conditions also becomes a difficult and complicated exercise. As climate change
varies over time, impacts and adaptation become dynamic systems, so that adaptation strategies should incorporate an iterative procedure.
Numerous tools and approaches for evaluating adaptation options have been
developed. While the conventional approach is to start with climate scenarios to
estimate potential impacts and adaptive responses, the vulnerability approach proposes an iterative process in five steps:
1. engage stakeholders
2. evaluate current vulnerability
3. guesstimate future conditions
4. appraise future vulnerability and
5. consider and implement options
In the usual climate scenarios assessment method, the starting point is average
climate conditions. In contrast, the vulnerability assessment approach starts with the
system (e.g., community, region or sector), to establish the knowledge foundation of
that area and its vulnerability. When possible future climate scenarios are introduced,
some of the uncertainties inherent with the other approach are reduced. In so doing,
the vulnerability assessment is carried out to the local scale, rather than the global or
large regional scale considered by the climate scenarios approach.
In short, the vulnerability approach considers a system’s capacity to cope with the
impacts, predicted by climate scenarios and socioeconomic scenarios.
Thus, a community that is able to cope or adapt to important climate change
impacts will be less vulnerable (i.e., more resilient) than a community that is
subjected to fewer or less severe impacts, but without any capacity to carry out
adaptation strategies. The aptitude to adapt strongly depends on social and
economic factors including the will to adapt, this being the one main reason why
stakeholder participation is a core element in the vulnerability approach: by engaging stakeholders, planners obtain a better understanding and assessment of what
adaptation choices may, or may not, be successfully executed within the community.
The vulnerability approach, thus, offers an all-inclusive, systematic and wide-ranging
296
10 Climate Change and Infrastructure
Throughout history, civilisations have always responded to climate and weather
fluctuations by adjusting to prevalent climate variability and extremes, either
through technology or through nomadic travel. The contemporary climate change
calls for adjustments to both current climate as well as to forthcoming climates.
Climate change research deals with many uncertainties and estimations. Our knowledge of climate processes, of the interactions between scientific and socioeconomic
factors affecting climate change, and the unknown possible future responses from
society to climate change, is imperfect and inadequate. This makes predicting future
climate scenarios and the effects of those circumstances on infrastructure (and
services) extremely difficult. Defining strategies to adapt to climate change in such
conditions also becomes a difficult and complicated exercise. As climate change
varies over time, impacts and adaptation become dynamic systems, so that adaptation strategies should incorporate an iterative procedure.
Numerous tools and approaches for evaluating adaptation options have been
developed. While the conventional approach is to start with climate scenarios to
estimate potential impacts and adaptive responses, the vulnerability approach proposes an iterative process in five steps:
1. engage stakeholders
2. evaluate current vulnerability
3. guesstimate future conditions
4. appraise future vulnerability and
5. consider and implement options
In the usual climate scenarios assessment method, the starting point is average
climate conditions. In contrast, the vulnerability assessment approach starts with the
system (e.g., community, region or sector), to establish the knowledge foundation of
that area and its vulnerability. When possible future climate scenarios are introduced,
some of the uncertainties inherent with the other approach are reduced. In so doing,
the vulnerability assessment is carried out to the local scale, rather than the global or
large regional scale considered by the climate scenarios approach.
In short, the vulnerability approach considers a system’s capacity to cope with the
impacts, predicted by climate scenarios and socioeconomic scenarios.
Thus, a community that is able to cope or adapt to important climate change
impacts will be less vulnerable (i.e., more resilient) than a community that is
subjected to fewer or less severe impacts, but without any capacity to carry out
adaptation strategies. The aptitude to adapt strongly depends on social and
economic factors including the will to adapt, this being the one main reason why
stakeholder participation is a core element in the vulnerability approach: by engaging stakeholders, planners obtain a better understanding and assessment of what
adaptation choices may, or may not, be successfully executed within the community.
The vulnerability approach, thus, offers an all-inclusive, systematic and wide-ranging
296
10 Climate Change and Infrastructure