climate-safe, sustainable, long-term energy and economic development, and the
Deeper Decarbonization Perspective (DDP) could guide low-carbon policy measures, helping to ensure coherence between rhetoric and action in tackling climate
change.
Based on the Baseline Energy Scenario (BES) from IRENA (2020), energyrelated emissions will increase by 0.7% per year to 43 gigatonnes (Gt) by 2050
(34 Gt in 2019), resulting in a temperature rise of 3
C or more in the second half of
this century. Under the Planned Energy Scenario (PES), emissions would decline to
33 Gt by 2050, resulting in a temperature rise of 2.5
C in the second half of this
century. In contrast, under IRENA’s Transforming Energy Scenario, emissions are
expected to fall by 3.8% per year to 10 Gt (70% less than the current level) by 2050,
keeping the expected temperature rise well below 2
C. The Deeper Decarbonization
Perspective would reduce emissions to zero by as early as 2050 or, at the latest, by
2060, holding the temperature increase to 1.5
C. Recent energy trends confirm the
need to accelerate a reduction in CO 2 emissions. Renewable energy forms a key part
of any viable solution. However, efforts in other sectors outside energy are also
needed to reduce emissions.
Dependence on fossil fuels must be changed immediately, because it continues to
have negative impacts on the world, such as high levels of air, water, and soil
pollution. Globally, there is pressing need for clean, sustainable energy solutions.
The Transforming Energy Scenario would cut fossil fuel use by approximately 75%
by 2050. The largest consumption declines would take place in coal use (41% by
2030 and 87% by 2050). The second largest decline in use would be seen in oil (31%
by 2030 and 70% by 2050), and natural gas would experience the third largest
decline (increasing 3% by 2030 and declining 41% by 2050) (IRENA 2020).
According to IRENA (2020), there are five technological pillars for the future of
energy: electrification, increasing power system flexibility, conventional renewable
energy sources, green hydrogen and fostering innovation to address challenging
sectors. Under the Transforming Energy Scenario, the costs of solar PV and wind
projects will decline by four-fifths and will thus produce less expensive electricity
than any fossil fuel alternative; these two renewable energy sources are strongly
recommended. IRENA (2020) mentions that hydropower, bioenergy, solar thermal
energy, and geothermal energy all have significant potential for scaling up and
represent over one-quarter of the mitigation potential in the Transforming Energy
Scenario. Two technologies can play particularly important roles: hydropower and
bioenergy.
In the Transforming Energy Scenario, bioenergy plays an important role, particularly in sectors that are hard to electrify, such as shipping, aviation, and industry
(both for processing and as feedstock). In the Transforming Energy Scenario, the
share of primary energy met by modern bioenergy sources increases to 23%.
Moreover, traditional uses of bioenergy, which cover a large share of the current
bioenergy demand, must be phased out and replaced with cleaner options, including
modern bioenergy and other renewables. Bioenergy must be produced in ways that
are environmentally, socially, and economically sustainable. There is enormous
potential to produce cost-effective and sustainable bioenergy on existing farmlands
228
M. Osaki et al.
Deeper Decarbonization Perspective (DDP) could guide low-carbon policy measures, helping to ensure coherence between rhetoric and action in tackling climate
change.
Based on the Baseline Energy Scenario (BES) from IRENA (2020), energyrelated emissions will increase by 0.7% per year to 43 gigatonnes (Gt) by 2050
(34 Gt in 2019), resulting in a temperature rise of 3
C or more in the second half of
this century. Under the Planned Energy Scenario (PES), emissions would decline to
33 Gt by 2050, resulting in a temperature rise of 2.5
C in the second half of this
century. In contrast, under IRENA’s Transforming Energy Scenario, emissions are
expected to fall by 3.8% per year to 10 Gt (70% less than the current level) by 2050,
keeping the expected temperature rise well below 2
C. The Deeper Decarbonization
Perspective would reduce emissions to zero by as early as 2050 or, at the latest, by
2060, holding the temperature increase to 1.5
C. Recent energy trends confirm the
need to accelerate a reduction in CO 2 emissions. Renewable energy forms a key part
of any viable solution. However, efforts in other sectors outside energy are also
needed to reduce emissions.
Dependence on fossil fuels must be changed immediately, because it continues to
have negative impacts on the world, such as high levels of air, water, and soil
pollution. Globally, there is pressing need for clean, sustainable energy solutions.
The Transforming Energy Scenario would cut fossil fuel use by approximately 75%
by 2050. The largest consumption declines would take place in coal use (41% by
2030 and 87% by 2050). The second largest decline in use would be seen in oil (31%
by 2030 and 70% by 2050), and natural gas would experience the third largest
decline (increasing 3% by 2030 and declining 41% by 2050) (IRENA 2020).
According to IRENA (2020), there are five technological pillars for the future of
energy: electrification, increasing power system flexibility, conventional renewable
energy sources, green hydrogen and fostering innovation to address challenging
sectors. Under the Transforming Energy Scenario, the costs of solar PV and wind
projects will decline by four-fifths and will thus produce less expensive electricity
than any fossil fuel alternative; these two renewable energy sources are strongly
recommended. IRENA (2020) mentions that hydropower, bioenergy, solar thermal
energy, and geothermal energy all have significant potential for scaling up and
represent over one-quarter of the mitigation potential in the Transforming Energy
Scenario. Two technologies can play particularly important roles: hydropower and
bioenergy.
In the Transforming Energy Scenario, bioenergy plays an important role, particularly in sectors that are hard to electrify, such as shipping, aviation, and industry
(both for processing and as feedstock). In the Transforming Energy Scenario, the
share of primary energy met by modern bioenergy sources increases to 23%.
Moreover, traditional uses of bioenergy, which cover a large share of the current
bioenergy demand, must be phased out and replaced with cleaner options, including
modern bioenergy and other renewables. Bioenergy must be produced in ways that
are environmentally, socially, and economically sustainable. There is enormous
potential to produce cost-effective and sustainable bioenergy on existing farmlands
228
M. Osaki et al.