water and by rail. The current market prices, roughly translated into the charge
calculations in the Dutch and the global case, had a minor impact. The EU variable
charge was based on a systematic account of total external cost and had a significantly higher impact. Clearly, if one wants to arrive anywhere near a contribution to
global emission targets, higher charges have to be considered than what is now
considered politically feasible.
8.3 Gaps in Studies
The studies described here are representative of the broader extant literature, in terms
of the scope of decisions considered, but relatively rich compared to mainstream
research. We have shown that it matters for the result of impact assessments, which
reorganization responses are included in studies. A number of important gaps in
modelling would need to be addressed. Firstly, many decisions that could have a
mitigating effect on industry responsiveness are still missing in most studies, like
distribution chain design, outsourcing of logistics services and shipment sizes.
Secondly, more insight is needed in the distributional effects of policies towards
specific sectors and regions of the world. These may be large and may require
additional policies to promote acceptance of decarbonization. Thirdly, the calculations seem to indicate that the level of decarbonization needed in the sector of around
80–90% will not be achieved by taxing current technologies. None of the studies
presented here and, to our knowledge, no other work in the extant literature arrives at
decarbonization results of this scale. The question, therefore, how a drastic
decarbonization can be achieved, is not answered. Finally, the issue of dynamics
seems to be a weak spot in the literature – while assumptions about dynamics are
essential to predict times to impact of policy measures, we are essentially still in the
dark. We note, finally, that a comprehensive literature review would be needed to
confirm the above issues that we have only been able to touch upon briefly with these
cases.
9 Concluding Remarks
The purpose of this chapter is to explore ways in which logistics decisions can be
taken into account in evaluations of decarbonization policies. To this end, we
reviewed and compared several cases of quantitative policy evaluation, all
implementing a form of taxation on transport, with the aim to reduce external effects.
The cases underline a number of general lessons. Firstly, logistics decision-making
is important to be understood as they determine the reorganization response of
companies. The current literature on logistics decision-making is too narrow in
scope to cover the necessary range of relevant choices and their properties. Additional research is needed to be able to predict impacts of carbon taxes. Typical
32
L. Tavasszy
calculations in the Dutch and the global case, had a minor impact. The EU variable
charge was based on a systematic account of total external cost and had a significantly higher impact. Clearly, if one wants to arrive anywhere near a contribution to
global emission targets, higher charges have to be considered than what is now
considered politically feasible.
8.3 Gaps in Studies
The studies described here are representative of the broader extant literature, in terms
of the scope of decisions considered, but relatively rich compared to mainstream
research. We have shown that it matters for the result of impact assessments, which
reorganization responses are included in studies. A number of important gaps in
modelling would need to be addressed. Firstly, many decisions that could have a
mitigating effect on industry responsiveness are still missing in most studies, like
distribution chain design, outsourcing of logistics services and shipment sizes.
Secondly, more insight is needed in the distributional effects of policies towards
specific sectors and regions of the world. These may be large and may require
additional policies to promote acceptance of decarbonization. Thirdly, the calculations seem to indicate that the level of decarbonization needed in the sector of around
80–90% will not be achieved by taxing current technologies. None of the studies
presented here and, to our knowledge, no other work in the extant literature arrives at
decarbonization results of this scale. The question, therefore, how a drastic
decarbonization can be achieved, is not answered. Finally, the issue of dynamics
seems to be a weak spot in the literature – while assumptions about dynamics are
essential to predict times to impact of policy measures, we are essentially still in the
dark. We note, finally, that a comprehensive literature review would be needed to
confirm the above issues that we have only been able to touch upon briefly with these
cases.
9 Concluding Remarks
The purpose of this chapter is to explore ways in which logistics decisions can be
taken into account in evaluations of decarbonization policies. To this end, we
reviewed and compared several cases of quantitative policy evaluation, all
implementing a form of taxation on transport, with the aim to reduce external effects.
The cases underline a number of general lessons. Firstly, logistics decision-making
is important to be understood as they determine the reorganization response of
companies. The current literature on logistics decision-making is too narrow in
scope to cover the necessary range of relevant choices and their properties. Additional research is needed to be able to predict impacts of carbon taxes. Typical
32
L. Tavasszy