7
System-Analytical Modeling of Water
Quality for Mountain River Runoff
Yuri Kirsta and Alexander Puzanov
Abstract
The method of system-analytical modeling of
complex natural systems is proposed to construct the simulation balance models for water
and hydrochemical runoff of mountain rivers.
An integral set of universal models for
seasonal and long-term runoff dynamics was
developed based on the example of 34
mid-size and small rivers of the Altai-Sayan
mountain country as a regional case study.
The set includes (a) regional climate model,
(b) water runoff balance model, and (c) seven
hydrochemical runoff balance models. The
latter characterizes the hydrochemical composition of the river runoff: three nitrogen
mineral forms (NO
À
2 ; NO
À
3 ; and NH
þ
4 ), phosphates (PO
3À
4 ), ions, total dissolved iron, and
suspended matter. To calculate the seasonal
runoff, four hydrological periods/seasons were
specified: winter low water, spring–summer
flood, summer low water, and autumn low
water. A total of 13 typological geosystem
groups (landscapes) were selected to account
for a landscape structure of river basins. In “b”
and “c” models, the hydrological and hydrochemical regimes of river basins are divided
into 13 standard types that correspond to
selected hydrological seasons and landscapes.
Each type depends on spatially generalized
monthly dynamics of precipitation and air
temperature. These meteorological characteristics are calculated in “a” model and
expressed in percent of specified long-term
mean values to be the same throughout the
Altai-Sayan mountain country. GIS data on
the relief and landscape structures of mountain
river basins represent the input information for
the “b” and “c” models. These data include the
area and average altitude of the basins, the
area and elevation of landscapes, the altitude
of the outlet, the length of river channels
(between the river head and the outlet), and
the area of arable land. The spatially generalized for the Altai-Sayan mountain country
normalized monthly precipitation and mean
monthly air temperature as well as water
runoff estimated for individual landscapes in
river basins with “a” and “b” models serve as
input factors for seven “c” models. The
sensitivity of models to variations of input
factors was evaluated. The sensitivity is
expressed as a contribution of a particular
factor to the variance of the observed values of
the output variable (water or hydrochemical
runoff). A quantitative assessment of the water
and hydrochemical runoff sensitivity was
Y. Kirsta (&) Á A. Puzanov
Institute for Water and Environmental Problems
SB RAS, 1, Molodezhnaya St., Barnaul 656038,
Russian Federation
e-mail: kirsta@iwep.ru
Y. Kirsta
Altai State Technical University, Barnaul 656038,
Russian Federation
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
B. W. Pandey and S. Anand (eds.), Water Science and Sustainability, Sustainable Development Goals Series,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57488-8_7
79
System-Analytical Modeling of Water
Quality for Mountain River Runoff
Yuri Kirsta and Alexander Puzanov
Abstract
The method of system-analytical modeling of
complex natural systems is proposed to construct the simulation balance models for water
and hydrochemical runoff of mountain rivers.
An integral set of universal models for
seasonal and long-term runoff dynamics was
developed based on the example of 34
mid-size and small rivers of the Altai-Sayan
mountain country as a regional case study.
The set includes (a) regional climate model,
(b) water runoff balance model, and (c) seven
hydrochemical runoff balance models. The
latter characterizes the hydrochemical composition of the river runoff: three nitrogen
mineral forms (NO
À
2 ; NO
À
3 ; and NH
þ
4 ), phosphates (PO
3À
4 ), ions, total dissolved iron, and
suspended matter. To calculate the seasonal
runoff, four hydrological periods/seasons were
specified: winter low water, spring–summer
flood, summer low water, and autumn low
water. A total of 13 typological geosystem
groups (landscapes) were selected to account
for a landscape structure of river basins. In “b”
and “c” models, the hydrological and hydrochemical regimes of river basins are divided
into 13 standard types that correspond to
selected hydrological seasons and landscapes.
Each type depends on spatially generalized
monthly dynamics of precipitation and air
temperature. These meteorological characteristics are calculated in “a” model and
expressed in percent of specified long-term
mean values to be the same throughout the
Altai-Sayan mountain country. GIS data on
the relief and landscape structures of mountain
river basins represent the input information for
the “b” and “c” models. These data include the
area and average altitude of the basins, the
area and elevation of landscapes, the altitude
of the outlet, the length of river channels
(between the river head and the outlet), and
the area of arable land. The spatially generalized for the Altai-Sayan mountain country
normalized monthly precipitation and mean
monthly air temperature as well as water
runoff estimated for individual landscapes in
river basins with “a” and “b” models serve as
input factors for seven “c” models. The
sensitivity of models to variations of input
factors was evaluated. The sensitivity is
expressed as a contribution of a particular
factor to the variance of the observed values of
the output variable (water or hydrochemical
runoff). A quantitative assessment of the water
and hydrochemical runoff sensitivity was
Y. Kirsta (&) Á A. Puzanov
Institute for Water and Environmental Problems
SB RAS, 1, Molodezhnaya St., Barnaul 656038,
Russian Federation
e-mail: kirsta@iwep.ru
Y. Kirsta
Altai State Technical University, Barnaul 656038,
Russian Federation
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
B. W. Pandey and S. Anand (eds.), Water Science and Sustainability, Sustainable Development Goals Series,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57488-8_7
79