3.5 Conclusion
As a result of research, we developed a mathematical model to forecast runoff for the Neman
River basin. Modeling of runoff changes for the
two scenarios of climate change A1B and B1
taking into account the thaw was carried out. The
results for the A1B scenario indicate the increasing of runoff from 7.4% for the Šventoji River to
33.9% for the Jūra River. Scenario B1 has shown
a minor change in runoff from 1.9% for the
Šventoji River up to 21.6% for the Neris River.
Development of compensation measures to
reduce impacts from increased runoff of the
Neman River is the subject of further research.
References
Belonenko G, Valuev V (1974) The annual distribution of
warmth and power resources and the maximum total
evaporation. Hydraulic engineering and land reclamation in Western Siberia. Omsk. T. 118:58–64
Budyko M (1971) Climate and life. Leningrad. p 472
Ikonnikov VF, Lishtvan II, Loginov VF (2003) Use of nature:
collection of scientific works. Minsk - Is.9, pp 25–33
Korneev V, Volchak A, Gertman L, Bulak I (2014)
Forecasting river runoff in the Western Dvina and the
Western Bug River basins in the current climatic
changes. Nat Resour 2:72–85
Marchuk V (1982) Calculations of warmth power
resources of process warmth and wet interface conditions in the wetlands (by the example of Belarus)
Hydrology and hydraulic engineering of land reclamation. – Omsk, pp 74–76
Mezentsev V and Karnatsevich I (1969) Hydration of the
West Siberian plain. Leningrad. p 168
Mezentsev V (1982) Hydrological calculations for melioration. Omsk. p 84
Mezentsev V (1995) Hydrological-climatic hypothesis
and examples. Water Resour 22(3):299–301
Encyclopaedia (1994) The blue book of Belarus: Belarus,
Minsk – p 415
Volchak A (1986) Method of determining the maximum
possible evaporation for mass meteogram (by example
of Belarus). Scient Tech Inf Reclam Water Manag
12:17–21
Volchak A, Parfamuk S (2007) Assessment of the
transformation of the water regime of small rivers of
the Belarusian Polesie under the influence of natural
and anthropogenic factors (for example, the Yaselda
River). Water sector of Russia: problems, technologies, management. Ekaterinburg. No. 1. pp 50– 62
Volchak A, Kirvel I (2013) Lake water level variations in
Belarus. Limnolog Rev 13(2):115–126
Water
Resources
(2012)
of
the
National
Park « Narochansky » : Reference Book. Minsk:
RIFTUR PRINT, p 128
22
A. A. Volchak and S. Parfomuk
As a result of research, we developed a mathematical model to forecast runoff for the Neman
River basin. Modeling of runoff changes for the
two scenarios of climate change A1B and B1
taking into account the thaw was carried out. The
results for the A1B scenario indicate the increasing of runoff from 7.4% for the Šventoji River to
33.9% for the Jūra River. Scenario B1 has shown
a minor change in runoff from 1.9% for the
Šventoji River up to 21.6% for the Neris River.
Development of compensation measures to
reduce impacts from increased runoff of the
Neman River is the subject of further research.
References
Belonenko G, Valuev V (1974) The annual distribution of
warmth and power resources and the maximum total
evaporation. Hydraulic engineering and land reclamation in Western Siberia. Omsk. T. 118:58–64
Budyko M (1971) Climate and life. Leningrad. p 472
Ikonnikov VF, Lishtvan II, Loginov VF (2003) Use of nature:
collection of scientific works. Minsk - Is.9, pp 25–33
Korneev V, Volchak A, Gertman L, Bulak I (2014)
Forecasting river runoff in the Western Dvina and the
Western Bug River basins in the current climatic
changes. Nat Resour 2:72–85
Marchuk V (1982) Calculations of warmth power
resources of process warmth and wet interface conditions in the wetlands (by the example of Belarus)
Hydrology and hydraulic engineering of land reclamation. – Omsk, pp 74–76
Mezentsev V and Karnatsevich I (1969) Hydration of the
West Siberian plain. Leningrad. p 168
Mezentsev V (1982) Hydrological calculations for melioration. Omsk. p 84
Mezentsev V (1995) Hydrological-climatic hypothesis
and examples. Water Resour 22(3):299–301
Encyclopaedia (1994) The blue book of Belarus: Belarus,
Minsk – p 415
Volchak A (1986) Method of determining the maximum
possible evaporation for mass meteogram (by example
of Belarus). Scient Tech Inf Reclam Water Manag
12:17–21
Volchak A, Parfamuk S (2007) Assessment of the
transformation of the water regime of small rivers of
the Belarusian Polesie under the influence of natural
and anthropogenic factors (for example, the Yaselda
River). Water sector of Russia: problems, technologies, management. Ekaterinburg. No. 1. pp 50– 62
Volchak A, Kirvel I (2013) Lake water level variations in
Belarus. Limnolog Rev 13(2):115–126
Water
Resources
(2012)
of
the
National
Park « Narochansky » : Reference Book. Minsk:
RIFTUR PRINT, p 128
22
A. A. Volchak and S. Parfomuk