3
Forecast Changes in Runoff
for the Neman River Basin
A. A. Volchak and S. Parfomuk
Abstract
Changes in river runoff for the Neman River
basin using two scenarios of economic development and climate change (A1B and B1)
were forecasted. The data sources are based
on the materials for the 24 hydrological
stations since 1961 till 2009 and 23 meteorological stations since 1961 till 2010 at the
Neman River in Belarus and Lithuania. During the research, we devised a multi-factor
model based on joint solution of the equations
for water and thermal balances. Modeling the
water balance was realized in a computer
program. The results for the A1B scenario
indicate the increasing of runoff from 7.4% to
33.9%. Scenario B1 has shown change in
runoff from 1.9% to 21.6%.
Keywords
Runoff Á Water Á Balance Á Model Á Forecast Á
Change Á Neman river
3.1 Introduction
The main hydrological parameters of the river
runoff are not stable. These parameters change
constantly under the influence of the complex
variety of factors. The combination of these
factors can be divided into climatic and anthropogenic those differ by the nature and consequences of impact on water resources (Water
Resources 2012).
Natural causes determine spatial-temporal
variations of water resources under the influence of the annual and secular climatic conditions. Intra-annual fluctuations occur constantly
and consistently. Secular variations occur slowly
and cover quite extensive areas. These variations
are typically quasi-periodic and tend to some
constant value. Studies show that in historical
time, these deviations were not progressive.
Periods of cooling and warming, dry and wet alternating in time and the general condition of
water resources and their quality do not change
significantly. The main feature of the natural
reasons is that the changes have not unilateral
tendencies (The Blue Book 1994).
Anthropogenic causes are the result of various
human activities. They affect water resources and
water quality relatively quickly and unilaterally,
and this is their main difference from natural
causes. The economic activities causing changes
in quantitative and qualitative parameters of
water resources are diverse and depend on the
A. A. Volchak (&) Á S. Parfomuk
Brest State Technical University, Moskovskaya 267,
Brest 224017, Belarus
e-mail: volchak@tut.by
S. Parfomuk
e-mail: parfom@mail.ru
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
B. W. Pandey and S. Anand (eds.), Water Science and Sustainability, Sustainable Development Goals Series,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57488-8_3
13
Forecast Changes in Runoff
for the Neman River Basin
A. A. Volchak and S. Parfomuk
Abstract
Changes in river runoff for the Neman River
basin using two scenarios of economic development and climate change (A1B and B1)
were forecasted. The data sources are based
on the materials for the 24 hydrological
stations since 1961 till 2009 and 23 meteorological stations since 1961 till 2010 at the
Neman River in Belarus and Lithuania. During the research, we devised a multi-factor
model based on joint solution of the equations
for water and thermal balances. Modeling the
water balance was realized in a computer
program. The results for the A1B scenario
indicate the increasing of runoff from 7.4% to
33.9%. Scenario B1 has shown change in
runoff from 1.9% to 21.6%.
Keywords
Runoff Á Water Á Balance Á Model Á Forecast Á
Change Á Neman river
3.1 Introduction
The main hydrological parameters of the river
runoff are not stable. These parameters change
constantly under the influence of the complex
variety of factors. The combination of these
factors can be divided into climatic and anthropogenic those differ by the nature and consequences of impact on water resources (Water
Resources 2012).
Natural causes determine spatial-temporal
variations of water resources under the influence of the annual and secular climatic conditions. Intra-annual fluctuations occur constantly
and consistently. Secular variations occur slowly
and cover quite extensive areas. These variations
are typically quasi-periodic and tend to some
constant value. Studies show that in historical
time, these deviations were not progressive.
Periods of cooling and warming, dry and wet alternating in time and the general condition of
water resources and their quality do not change
significantly. The main feature of the natural
reasons is that the changes have not unilateral
tendencies (The Blue Book 1994).
Anthropogenic causes are the result of various
human activities. They affect water resources and
water quality relatively quickly and unilaterally,
and this is their main difference from natural
causes. The economic activities causing changes
in quantitative and qualitative parameters of
water resources are diverse and depend on the
A. A. Volchak (&) Á S. Parfomuk
Brest State Technical University, Moskovskaya 267,
Brest 224017, Belarus
e-mail: volchak@tut.by
S. Parfomuk
e-mail: parfom@mail.ru
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
B. W. Pandey and S. Anand (eds.), Water Science and Sustainability, Sustainable Development Goals Series,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57488-8_3
13