predictive model, the accuracy of calculations is
still affected by spatial generalization of precipitation (A = 0.66) and air temperature (A = 0.50).
It is worth noting that generalization of these
input factors for the Altai-Sayan mountain
country was carried out due to the data from 11
weather stations located outside the analyzed 34
river basins.
In closing, we can sum up the following key
results:
• The combined universal models of normalization and spatial generalization of average
monthly temperature and monthly precipitation, water, and hydrochemical runoff allow
us to estimate and manage the seasonal and
long-term dynamics of water quality for any
river basin of the Altai-Sayan mountain
country, even if experimental hydrometeorological and hydrochemical data on the basin
are unavailable.
• The proposed evaluation of model sensitivity
to natural variations of environmental factors
is achieved by random entangling the
observed values of the target input factor. This
method does not require any special mathematical procedures and can be applied to any
mathematical models based on the observed
data series.
• The developed balance models of water and
hydrochemical runoff with anew selected
landscapes and parameters updated via
system-analytical modeling can be applied to
any mountainous area.
References
Agal’tseva NA, Spektorman TY, Chub VE, Bolgov MV,
Trubetskova MD (2011) Estimating hydrological
characteristics in the Amu Darya River basin under
climate change conditions. Russ Meteorol Hydrol 36
(10):681–689 (in Russian)
Altai-Sayan mountain region (1969) Eds.: S.A. Strelkov,
V.V. Vdovin. Institute of Geology and Geophysics,
Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences. –
Nauka, Moscow. p 415 (in Russian).
Beven K (2002) Towards an alternative blueprint for a
physically based digitally simulated hydrologic
response modeling system. Hydrol Process 16:189–
206
Brus DJ (1993) Incorporating models of spatial variations
in sampling strategies for soil: PhD thesis. Wageningen University, The Netherlands, p 211
Chernykh DV, Samoilova GS (2011) Landscapes of the
Altai (Altai Krai and Republic of Altai). Map. –
Novosibirsk Map Reproduction plant, Novosibirsk (in
Russian)
Deng X, Singh RB, Liu J, Güneralp B (2015) Water use
efficiency and integrated water resource management
for river basin. Phys Chem Earth, Parts a/B/C 89–
90:1–2
Dingman SL, Sharma KP (1997) Statistical development
and validation of discharge equations for natural
channels. J Hydrol 199:13–35
Hauduc H, Neumann M, Muschalla D, Gamerith V,
Gillot S, Vanrolleghem PA (2011) Towards quantitative quality criteria to evaluate simulation results in
wastewater treatment – A critical review. In: Proceedings 8th International IWA Symposium on Systems
Analysis and Integrated Assessment in Water Management (WATERMATEX2011). San Sebastian,
Spain, 36–46
Jarrett RD (1990) Hydrologic and hydraulic research in
mountain rivers. Water Resour Bull 26:419–429
Kirsta YB (2006a) System-analytical modelling – Part I:
General principles and theoretically best accuracies of
ecological models. Soil-Moisture Exchange in Agroecosystems. Ecol Modelling 191:315–330
Kirsta YB (2006b) System-analytical modelling – Part II:
Wheat biotime run and yield formation. Agroclimatic
potential, Le Chatelier principle, changes in agroclimatic potential and climate in Russia and the U.S.
Ecol Modelling 191:331–345
Kirsta YB (2011a) The forecast of both climate and
agroclimatic potential in Siberian federal okrug till
2020. Reg Environ Issues 3:22–30 (in Russian)
Kirsta YB (2011b) Spatial generalization of climatic
characteristics in mountain areas. World of Science,
Culture and Education (Mir Nauki, Kul’tury, Obrazovaniya) 3(28):330–337 (in Russian)
Kirsta YB (2016) Modeling of hydrochemical composition of mountain river runoff: assessment of model
performance for the runoff of mineral nitrogen forms.
News of the Samara scientific center of RAS 18
(2):408–412 (in Russian)
Kirsta YB, Kirsta BY (2014) The information-physical
principle of evolutionary systems formation, systemanalytical modeling of ecosystems, 2nd edn. Altai
State University Publishing House, Barnaul, p 283 (in
Russian)
Kirsta YB, Kurepina NY, Lovtskaya OV (2014) Decomposition of meteorological fields in the Northern
Hemisphere: determination of zones of maximum
climate destabilization. Int J Appl Fundam Res (Part
1), 63–68 (in Russian)
Kirsta YB, Lubenets LF, Chernykh DV (2011) Typological classification of landscapes for river flow
7 System-Analytical Modeling of Water Quality …
99
still affected by spatial generalization of precipitation (A = 0.66) and air temperature (A = 0.50).
It is worth noting that generalization of these
input factors for the Altai-Sayan mountain
country was carried out due to the data from 11
weather stations located outside the analyzed 34
river basins.
In closing, we can sum up the following key
results:
• The combined universal models of normalization and spatial generalization of average
monthly temperature and monthly precipitation, water, and hydrochemical runoff allow
us to estimate and manage the seasonal and
long-term dynamics of water quality for any
river basin of the Altai-Sayan mountain
country, even if experimental hydrometeorological and hydrochemical data on the basin
are unavailable.
• The proposed evaluation of model sensitivity
to natural variations of environmental factors
is achieved by random entangling the
observed values of the target input factor. This
method does not require any special mathematical procedures and can be applied to any
mathematical models based on the observed
data series.
• The developed balance models of water and
hydrochemical runoff with anew selected
landscapes and parameters updated via
system-analytical modeling can be applied to
any mountainous area.
References
Agal’tseva NA, Spektorman TY, Chub VE, Bolgov MV,
Trubetskova MD (2011) Estimating hydrological
characteristics in the Amu Darya River basin under
climate change conditions. Russ Meteorol Hydrol 36
(10):681–689 (in Russian)
Altai-Sayan mountain region (1969) Eds.: S.A. Strelkov,
V.V. Vdovin. Institute of Geology and Geophysics,
Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences. –
Nauka, Moscow. p 415 (in Russian).
Beven K (2002) Towards an alternative blueprint for a
physically based digitally simulated hydrologic
response modeling system. Hydrol Process 16:189–
206
Brus DJ (1993) Incorporating models of spatial variations
in sampling strategies for soil: PhD thesis. Wageningen University, The Netherlands, p 211
Chernykh DV, Samoilova GS (2011) Landscapes of the
Altai (Altai Krai and Republic of Altai). Map. –
Novosibirsk Map Reproduction plant, Novosibirsk (in
Russian)
Deng X, Singh RB, Liu J, Güneralp B (2015) Water use
efficiency and integrated water resource management
for river basin. Phys Chem Earth, Parts a/B/C 89–
90:1–2
Dingman SL, Sharma KP (1997) Statistical development
and validation of discharge equations for natural
channels. J Hydrol 199:13–35
Hauduc H, Neumann M, Muschalla D, Gamerith V,
Gillot S, Vanrolleghem PA (2011) Towards quantitative quality criteria to evaluate simulation results in
wastewater treatment – A critical review. In: Proceedings 8th International IWA Symposium on Systems
Analysis and Integrated Assessment in Water Management (WATERMATEX2011). San Sebastian,
Spain, 36–46
Jarrett RD (1990) Hydrologic and hydraulic research in
mountain rivers. Water Resour Bull 26:419–429
Kirsta YB (2006a) System-analytical modelling – Part I:
General principles and theoretically best accuracies of
ecological models. Soil-Moisture Exchange in Agroecosystems. Ecol Modelling 191:315–330
Kirsta YB (2006b) System-analytical modelling – Part II:
Wheat biotime run and yield formation. Agroclimatic
potential, Le Chatelier principle, changes in agroclimatic potential and climate in Russia and the U.S.
Ecol Modelling 191:331–345
Kirsta YB (2011a) The forecast of both climate and
agroclimatic potential in Siberian federal okrug till
2020. Reg Environ Issues 3:22–30 (in Russian)
Kirsta YB (2011b) Spatial generalization of climatic
characteristics in mountain areas. World of Science,
Culture and Education (Mir Nauki, Kul’tury, Obrazovaniya) 3(28):330–337 (in Russian)
Kirsta YB (2016) Modeling of hydrochemical composition of mountain river runoff: assessment of model
performance for the runoff of mineral nitrogen forms.
News of the Samara scientific center of RAS 18
(2):408–412 (in Russian)
Kirsta YB, Kirsta BY (2014) The information-physical
principle of evolutionary systems formation, systemanalytical modeling of ecosystems, 2nd edn. Altai
State University Publishing House, Barnaul, p 283 (in
Russian)
Kirsta YB, Kurepina NY, Lovtskaya OV (2014) Decomposition of meteorological fields in the Northern
Hemisphere: determination of zones of maximum
climate destabilization. Int J Appl Fundam Res (Part
1), 63–68 (in Russian)
Kirsta YB, Lubenets LF, Chernykh DV (2011) Typological classification of landscapes for river flow
7 System-Analytical Modeling of Water Quality …
99