422
18 Climatic Change and Water Resources
areas to the plain. The most insensitive region is arid inland river basins and the
upper stream of the Yellow River Basin. The most sensitive region is semi-humid
and semi-arid regions, such as the Songhua and Liao River Basins, Hai River Basin,
and Huai River Basin (Compiling group 2007).
According to the China Meteorological Bureau, in the scenario of temperatures
increasing by 1.9–2.3 °C in Northwest China, the glacier area will decrease by 27%
compared to the present, and all small glaciers less than 2 km
2 will disappear. With
the increase of production and domestic water demand, the water shortage will be
about 20 billion m
3 from 2010 to 2030 in China.
1
There are many studies on the responses of water resources to climate change and
global warming. Fu’s (1993) research indicated that a 2 °C increase in temperature in
North China would reduce runoff by 10–20% in the Qinglong River, Tang River, and
Sha River and by 40% in the Bai River. With a 10% decrease in precipitation, runoff in
these four rivers would decrease by 15–25%. In the tropical area, a 2 °C temperature
increase and 10% decrease in precipitation would reduce runoff by 40–60% in North
China and 25.6% in the Wanquan River in Hainan Province.
The research results of “Impact of Climatic Change on Water Resources and its
Adaptive Measures” indicated that, based on four global circulation model (GCM)
scenarios, runoff would likely increase in the Songhua River Basin; increase or
decrease in the Liao River Basin; and decrease in the North China Plain, the
middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River and the Huai River (Water Resources
Information Centre, MWR 1996).
In the middle reach of the Yellow River, annual runoff would decrease by 3.7–
6.6% with a temperature increase of 1 °C and by 17–22% with a 10% decrease
in precipitation (Zhang et al. 2009). In the Yellow River, with significant variation
among different modeling results, the greatest decrease in runoff would be 23.6%
and the greatest increase would be 5.7% (Yu et al. 2008). In the headwater area of the
Yellow River, based on eight scenarios (under temperature increases and decreases of
1 °C and precipitation increases and decreases of 10% and 20%), annual runoff would
decrease due to warming temperatures, but runoff would increase during November
and April and from May to October due to melting snow (Jia et al. 2008). At the
same time, according to 13 scenarios from the IPCC DDC, runoff would generally
decrease by less than 10% in the next 50 years, and the temperature increase after
2050 would result in a 5% reduction in runoff every 10 years.
In the Huai River Basin, incorporating three SRES scenarios (B1, A2, A1B) from
four GCMs and applying Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, research has
demonstrated that runoff would mainly decrease from 2011 to 2040 (Gao 2008)
In the Danjiangkou Reservoir, the predicted and modeled runoffs into the reservoir
will increase by 8.18% (HadCM3), 7.78% (CSRIO), and 2.14%(CCSRINES) (Zhang
2008). In West Creek of Jin River in Fujian Province, with a 4 °C and 20% decrease
in precipitation, runoff would decrease by 33.34% (Gao 2008). In the Laizhou Bay
region of Shandong Province, water shortages from 2020 to 2042 will be 2–5.7
1 Climate warming will deteriorate water shortage in West China, available at http://news.xinhua
net.com/newscenter/2008-03/22/content_7839145.htm.
18 Climatic Change and Water Resources
areas to the plain. The most insensitive region is arid inland river basins and the
upper stream of the Yellow River Basin. The most sensitive region is semi-humid
and semi-arid regions, such as the Songhua and Liao River Basins, Hai River Basin,
and Huai River Basin (Compiling group 2007).
According to the China Meteorological Bureau, in the scenario of temperatures
increasing by 1.9–2.3 °C in Northwest China, the glacier area will decrease by 27%
compared to the present, and all small glaciers less than 2 km
2 will disappear. With
the increase of production and domestic water demand, the water shortage will be
about 20 billion m
3 from 2010 to 2030 in China.
1
There are many studies on the responses of water resources to climate change and
global warming. Fu’s (1993) research indicated that a 2 °C increase in temperature in
North China would reduce runoff by 10–20% in the Qinglong River, Tang River, and
Sha River and by 40% in the Bai River. With a 10% decrease in precipitation, runoff in
these four rivers would decrease by 15–25%. In the tropical area, a 2 °C temperature
increase and 10% decrease in precipitation would reduce runoff by 40–60% in North
China and 25.6% in the Wanquan River in Hainan Province.
The research results of “Impact of Climatic Change on Water Resources and its
Adaptive Measures” indicated that, based on four global circulation model (GCM)
scenarios, runoff would likely increase in the Songhua River Basin; increase or
decrease in the Liao River Basin; and decrease in the North China Plain, the
middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River and the Huai River (Water Resources
Information Centre, MWR 1996).
In the middle reach of the Yellow River, annual runoff would decrease by 3.7–
6.6% with a temperature increase of 1 °C and by 17–22% with a 10% decrease
in precipitation (Zhang et al. 2009). In the Yellow River, with significant variation
among different modeling results, the greatest decrease in runoff would be 23.6%
and the greatest increase would be 5.7% (Yu et al. 2008). In the headwater area of the
Yellow River, based on eight scenarios (under temperature increases and decreases of
1 °C and precipitation increases and decreases of 10% and 20%), annual runoff would
decrease due to warming temperatures, but runoff would increase during November
and April and from May to October due to melting snow (Jia et al. 2008). At the
same time, according to 13 scenarios from the IPCC DDC, runoff would generally
decrease by less than 10% in the next 50 years, and the temperature increase after
2050 would result in a 5% reduction in runoff every 10 years.
In the Huai River Basin, incorporating three SRES scenarios (B1, A2, A1B) from
four GCMs and applying Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, research has
demonstrated that runoff would mainly decrease from 2011 to 2040 (Gao 2008)
In the Danjiangkou Reservoir, the predicted and modeled runoffs into the reservoir
will increase by 8.18% (HadCM3), 7.78% (CSRIO), and 2.14%(CCSRINES) (Zhang
2008). In West Creek of Jin River in Fujian Province, with a 4 °C and 20% decrease
in precipitation, runoff would decrease by 33.34% (Gao 2008). In the Laizhou Bay
region of Shandong Province, water shortages from 2020 to 2042 will be 2–5.7
1 Climate warming will deteriorate water shortage in West China, available at http://news.xinhua
net.com/newscenter/2008-03/22/content_7839145.htm.