18.3 Precipitation
417
the area southeast of Northeast China, Shaanxi, and South Gansu—had decreased
precipitation. Southeast China and Northeast China had stable precipitation rates (Ye
et al. 2004).
18.3.2 Estimates
Climate change will alter the distribution of water resources. It is estimated that
in the future, climate change will significantly impact the hydrological cycle and
spatial and temporal distributions of water resources in China. It will intensify annual
and seasonal variations and increase the frequency of extreme hydrological events,
such as floods and droughts. More particularly, global warming will accelerate the
melting of glaciers in Western China, which will impact the runoff of rivers mainly
supplied from glaciers. Global warming might increase the drying tendency in North
China, deteriorate the water supply and cause conflict (Information Office of the
State Council of the People’s Republic of China 2008).
Under the continually warming climate, precipitation distribution will change.
More water in northern China and less in southern China will alleviate the pressure
of water resources in northern China. With global warming, precipitation in China
will fluctuate before 2040. Beginning in 2015, northern China will experience more
precipitation, while southern China will have less precipitation. After 2040, precipitation will significantly increase, with an 8–10% increase at the end of the twenty-first
century. The greatest precipitation increase will occur in northern China, followed by
Northeast China. Precipitation in southern China will decrease. This pattern is typical
of precipitation under global warming conditions (that is, increased precipitation in
middle and high latitudes and less in subtropical regions) (Gao et al. 2009).
According to the results of the RCM from China’s National Assessment Report on
Climate Change, average annual precipitation will increase under a double concentration of carbon dioxide in 2070. The greatest percentages of increase—over 20%—
will occur in western China, covering areas from the western part of North China to
Xinjiang. The eastern part of Guangdong Province, western part of Fujian Province,
and northeast part of Guangxi Autonomous Region will be the areas with the largest
percentage of precipitation. The center and downstream of the Yangtze River Basin
will change less, with some areas increasing and some decreasing. The northern
part of Northeast China will be the region with the greatest increase in precipitation,
with about 20% in some areas. At the same time, the southern part of Northeast
China and the northern part of North China will undergo decrease with by more than
10% in some areas. It should be pointed out that the modeled results are consistent with changes over the past decades. The average annual precipitation in China
will increase by 12%, with increases of 6%, 19%, 6%, and 12% in spring, summer,
autumn, and winter, respectively (Compiling group 2007).
417
the area southeast of Northeast China, Shaanxi, and South Gansu—had decreased
precipitation. Southeast China and Northeast China had stable precipitation rates (Ye
et al. 2004).
18.3.2 Estimates
Climate change will alter the distribution of water resources. It is estimated that
in the future, climate change will significantly impact the hydrological cycle and
spatial and temporal distributions of water resources in China. It will intensify annual
and seasonal variations and increase the frequency of extreme hydrological events,
such as floods and droughts. More particularly, global warming will accelerate the
melting of glaciers in Western China, which will impact the runoff of rivers mainly
supplied from glaciers. Global warming might increase the drying tendency in North
China, deteriorate the water supply and cause conflict (Information Office of the
State Council of the People’s Republic of China 2008).
Under the continually warming climate, precipitation distribution will change.
More water in northern China and less in southern China will alleviate the pressure
of water resources in northern China. With global warming, precipitation in China
will fluctuate before 2040. Beginning in 2015, northern China will experience more
precipitation, while southern China will have less precipitation. After 2040, precipitation will significantly increase, with an 8–10% increase at the end of the twenty-first
century. The greatest precipitation increase will occur in northern China, followed by
Northeast China. Precipitation in southern China will decrease. This pattern is typical
of precipitation under global warming conditions (that is, increased precipitation in
middle and high latitudes and less in subtropical regions) (Gao et al. 2009).
According to the results of the RCM from China’s National Assessment Report on
Climate Change, average annual precipitation will increase under a double concentration of carbon dioxide in 2070. The greatest percentages of increase—over 20%—
will occur in western China, covering areas from the western part of North China to
Xinjiang. The eastern part of Guangdong Province, western part of Fujian Province,
and northeast part of Guangxi Autonomous Region will be the areas with the largest
percentage of precipitation. The center and downstream of the Yangtze River Basin
will change less, with some areas increasing and some decreasing. The northern
part of Northeast China will be the region with the greatest increase in precipitation,
with about 20% in some areas. At the same time, the southern part of Northeast
China and the northern part of North China will undergo decrease with by more than
10% in some areas. It should be pointed out that the modeled results are consistent with changes over the past decades. The average annual precipitation in China
will increase by 12%, with increases of 6%, 19%, 6%, and 12% in spring, summer,
autumn, and winter, respectively (Compiling group 2007).