5.3 The Population and Urban Area of the World’s Big
Cities
5.3.1 Demographics of Regions and Eras
In this section, we will analyze the six proposed regions and eras in terms of their
urban populations and urban areas. The analysis of the historical urban populations
is based on information from previous studies (Chandler 1987; Satterthwaite 2007).
However, there is some uncertainty concerning the historical population data, and
views on archeology and demographic history may vary. Only cities with information on population are investigated, and many cities are excluded owing to lack of
data. Nevertheless, by collecting as much data as possible, we can determine the
most reasonable estimates of urban size available.
Regarding the cities that existed before 1900, the Muramatsu Project at RIHN
estimated each city’s historical population chronologically in 2014 (Muramatsu
2016b). As mentioned in footnote 1, Reiko Hayashi dealt with urban demography
and she created the chronological table of 499 cities with historic urban population
based mainly on Chandler (Chandler 1987; Hayashi 2007). Using this as a basis, we
add as much additional data as possible from previous studies (Ahmed 1986;
Bairoch 1988; Bairoch et al. 1989; Buringh 2010; Connolly and Dodge 1998;
Fletcher 1995; Mitchell 1998a, b, 2007a, b, c; Modelski 2003; Morris 2010; Shower
2005; Smith 2005; de Vries 1984; Wilson 2011) with reference to the sites
2 with the
result that we have data on 915 cities including some agglomerations of populations
before 3700 BCE mentioned later. We focus on cities with populations of 10,000 or
more and categorize them into the following five groups: (1) 10,000–99,999,
(2) 100,000–399,999, (3) 400,000–999,999, (4) 1,000,000–3999,999, and (5) 4
million and above.
For cities that existed after 1950, we use two data sources. First, we use data from
the United Nations (UN) Annual Population of Urban Agglomerations series for
cities of 300,000 inhabitants or more in UN (2018), which provides estimates and
forecasts for the period 1950–2035. Second, we use the United States
(US) Department of Energy’s 2007 LandScan data on cities with more than 4 million
people (LandScan 2007). The method of collecting LandScan data is a little different
as it is based on the continuity of a 1-km
2 mesh with a population density of over
2000 people. Focusing on populations of 1 million and over, I divided these cities
into three groups; (1) 1,000,000–399,999, (2) 400,000–999,999, and (3) 10 million
and above.
When the cities are classified into the six regions proposed, the major factors in
determining which region they fall into are the continents on which they are based
and their Köppen climate classification (Kottek et al. 2006), especially whether the
2 https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%AD%B4%E5%8F%B2%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%AE%E6%
8E%A8%E5%AE%9A%E9%83%BD%E5%B8%82%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3, https://en.
wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_urban_community_sizes
76
N. Fukami
Cities
5.3.1 Demographics of Regions and Eras
In this section, we will analyze the six proposed regions and eras in terms of their
urban populations and urban areas. The analysis of the historical urban populations
is based on information from previous studies (Chandler 1987; Satterthwaite 2007).
However, there is some uncertainty concerning the historical population data, and
views on archeology and demographic history may vary. Only cities with information on population are investigated, and many cities are excluded owing to lack of
data. Nevertheless, by collecting as much data as possible, we can determine the
most reasonable estimates of urban size available.
Regarding the cities that existed before 1900, the Muramatsu Project at RIHN
estimated each city’s historical population chronologically in 2014 (Muramatsu
2016b). As mentioned in footnote 1, Reiko Hayashi dealt with urban demography
and she created the chronological table of 499 cities with historic urban population
based mainly on Chandler (Chandler 1987; Hayashi 2007). Using this as a basis, we
add as much additional data as possible from previous studies (Ahmed 1986;
Bairoch 1988; Bairoch et al. 1989; Buringh 2010; Connolly and Dodge 1998;
Fletcher 1995; Mitchell 1998a, b, 2007a, b, c; Modelski 2003; Morris 2010; Shower
2005; Smith 2005; de Vries 1984; Wilson 2011) with reference to the sites
2 with the
result that we have data on 915 cities including some agglomerations of populations
before 3700 BCE mentioned later. We focus on cities with populations of 10,000 or
more and categorize them into the following five groups: (1) 10,000–99,999,
(2) 100,000–399,999, (3) 400,000–999,999, (4) 1,000,000–3999,999, and (5) 4
million and above.
For cities that existed after 1950, we use two data sources. First, we use data from
the United Nations (UN) Annual Population of Urban Agglomerations series for
cities of 300,000 inhabitants or more in UN (2018), which provides estimates and
forecasts for the period 1950–2035. Second, we use the United States
(US) Department of Energy’s 2007 LandScan data on cities with more than 4 million
people (LandScan 2007). The method of collecting LandScan data is a little different
as it is based on the continuity of a 1-km
2 mesh with a population density of over
2000 people. Focusing on populations of 1 million and over, I divided these cities
into three groups; (1) 1,000,000–399,999, (2) 400,000–999,999, and (3) 10 million
and above.
When the cities are classified into the six regions proposed, the major factors in
determining which region they fall into are the continents on which they are based
and their Köppen climate classification (Kottek et al. 2006), especially whether the
2 https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%AD%B4%E5%8F%B2%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%AE%E6%
8E%A8%E5%AE%9A%E9%83%BD%E5%B8%82%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3, https://en.
wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_urban_community_sizes
76
N. Fukami