In the sub-Saharan Africa region, “metropolitanization” occurred later than in
other regions as discussed earlier. Nevertheless, it is estimated that the maximum
population of two megacities, Lagos and Kinshasa, will exceed 20 million by 2030.
Abidjan, Nairobi, and Addis Ababa, despite being predicted to reach only 8 million
by 2035, are continuing to grow rapidly and may become megacities soon after
2035. All the megacities and estimated megacities in this region are the capital or
primary cities of a nation state (Table 5.2).
In the mid-latitude arid region, with increasing megacities following monsoon
Asia, though the increasing ratio of the cities from 2015 to 2035 with inhabitants
over 7 million less than 10 million is higher than monsoon Asia. The maximum
population of the largest megacity in the mid-latitude arid region in 2035 is estimated
to be higher than in monsoon Asia. The population of Delhi exceeded 20 million in
2010 and is estimated to exceed 40 million in 2035, making it the most populated
city in the world. In 2035, following the 12 megacities, the next largest cities are
three cities with populations over 9 million, Khartoum, Riyadh, and Pune. It is
estimated that these three cities will become megacities soon after 2035. Khartoum
and Riyadh are primary cities of nation states, and Pune is located near megacity
Mumbai in India and is a center for education, manufacturing, and IT.
Monsoon Asia is the area where the maximum number of megacities exists from
1985 to 2035 (Table 5.2), and the total number of cities with populations exceeding
4 million is also the highest from 1950 (Table 5.1). Moreover, Suzhou, Hangzhou,
Foshan, and Dongguan, Chinese cities that are strong trading and industrial centers,
have experienced constant population increases and are estimated to exceed 8 million
in 2035. Thus, they may become megacities soon after 2035. On the other hand, for
cities in Japan, population growth is low and likely to remain stable.
Summarizing the above, monsoon Asia, the mid-latitude arid region, and the
sub-Saharan Africa region will increase their numbers of megacities after 2035, with
the two former regions leading in terms of increasing numbers of megacities and the
populations of megacities. Conversely, the other three regions will remain more
stable in terms of these megacity trends.
5.5 Conclusion
In this chapter, we have developed a framework based on six eras and on six regions
related to their ecosystems, and analyzed the transformation of cities, using the
Islamic cities as an illustrative case. We analyzed the eras and regions in terms of
the history of the urban population, and the urban area, based on LandScan (2007)
data. We believe that this framework provides valid indicators to consider the
historical typology of cities. We then considered 18 megacities, extracted using
LandScan (2007) data, and suggested five conditions for the sustainability of
megacities. The megacity is rooted in the phenomena of upper Eurasia and North
America and Oceania, although the direction of evolution has changed since 1950.
Monsoon Asia is leading the current development in terms of number and size of
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N. Fukami
other regions as discussed earlier. Nevertheless, it is estimated that the maximum
population of two megacities, Lagos and Kinshasa, will exceed 20 million by 2030.
Abidjan, Nairobi, and Addis Ababa, despite being predicted to reach only 8 million
by 2035, are continuing to grow rapidly and may become megacities soon after
2035. All the megacities and estimated megacities in this region are the capital or
primary cities of a nation state (Table 5.2).
In the mid-latitude arid region, with increasing megacities following monsoon
Asia, though the increasing ratio of the cities from 2015 to 2035 with inhabitants
over 7 million less than 10 million is higher than monsoon Asia. The maximum
population of the largest megacity in the mid-latitude arid region in 2035 is estimated
to be higher than in monsoon Asia. The population of Delhi exceeded 20 million in
2010 and is estimated to exceed 40 million in 2035, making it the most populated
city in the world. In 2035, following the 12 megacities, the next largest cities are
three cities with populations over 9 million, Khartoum, Riyadh, and Pune. It is
estimated that these three cities will become megacities soon after 2035. Khartoum
and Riyadh are primary cities of nation states, and Pune is located near megacity
Mumbai in India and is a center for education, manufacturing, and IT.
Monsoon Asia is the area where the maximum number of megacities exists from
1985 to 2035 (Table 5.2), and the total number of cities with populations exceeding
4 million is also the highest from 1950 (Table 5.1). Moreover, Suzhou, Hangzhou,
Foshan, and Dongguan, Chinese cities that are strong trading and industrial centers,
have experienced constant population increases and are estimated to exceed 8 million
in 2035. Thus, they may become megacities soon after 2035. On the other hand, for
cities in Japan, population growth is low and likely to remain stable.
Summarizing the above, monsoon Asia, the mid-latitude arid region, and the
sub-Saharan Africa region will increase their numbers of megacities after 2035, with
the two former regions leading in terms of increasing numbers of megacities and the
populations of megacities. Conversely, the other three regions will remain more
stable in terms of these megacity trends.
5.5 Conclusion
In this chapter, we have developed a framework based on six eras and on six regions
related to their ecosystems, and analyzed the transformation of cities, using the
Islamic cities as an illustrative case. We analyzed the eras and regions in terms of
the history of the urban population, and the urban area, based on LandScan (2007)
data. We believe that this framework provides valid indicators to consider the
historical typology of cities. We then considered 18 megacities, extracted using
LandScan (2007) data, and suggested five conditions for the sustainability of
megacities. The megacity is rooted in the phenomena of upper Eurasia and North
America and Oceania, although the direction of evolution has changed since 1950.
Monsoon Asia is leading the current development in terms of number and size of
98
N. Fukami