water. After the 1980s, despite prohibitions on farmland being converted into
residential areas, most of the fields around the villages gradually and informally
became residential. The dwelling sites followed the field forms, and multistory
traditional masonry apartment buildings were built, usually with three
30–50 m
2 units per floor. Thus, densely occupied, multistory residence structures
arose.
Typically, informal development overseen by private companies results in insufficient infrastructure for lower-income megacity residents, who have left their rural
areas to seek work in the megacity. These informal developments are sometimes
referred to as “slums” or “shanty towns.” Historically, these areas were developed
based on the local urban traditions, as were the residential developments on farmland
in Jakarta and Cairo. However, because cheap high-rise apartments can increase
density, this new method, which was imported from other regions, came to prevail in
the poor areas of these countries, despite their different historical traditions. For
example, Kolkata in monsoon Asia has multistory high-rises and high-density
apartments for poor people. Thus, not only formal housing but also informal housing
has become global. To understand the nature of these provisional developments, it is
necessary to understand the culture of the region.
5.4.3 Future Megacities from a Regional Perspective
In this section, we estimate the number of future megacities for each region. Based
on the cities in the UN data set, Annual Population of Urban Agglomerations with
300,000 or more in 2018, we compare the regions’ situations for 2000–2035. Each
region differs in terms of population, the number of cities and megacities, and the
estimated number of megacities after 2035 (Table 5.5).
In upper Eurasia, the number of cities with over 4 million inhabitants remain
constant, as mentioned earlier, and only one additional city, St. Petersburg, is
predicted to reach over 5 million in 2035. Thus, the appearance of a new megacity
after 2035 is likely to take a long time in this region.
In North America and Oceania, in contrast to upper Eurasia, the number of cities
over 4 million has increased and is estimated to continue increasing. The population
of New York is estimated to exceed 20 million by 2035. Chicago is expected to reach
9 million in 2035, and thus will reach the 10-million megacity threshold soon after
2035. However, the number of cities with populations over 4 million remains fixed at
16 after 2015.
In Latin America, the number of cities over 4 million has increased and is
estimated to increase more than in North America and Oceania. There were only
six cities with 10 million or more people from 2020, and the populations of these
cities remain constant to 2035 as shown in Table 5.2. However, one additional city,
Santiago, is predicted to reach 7 million by 2030. Again, we predict that the
appearance of a new megacity after 2035 will take a long time in this region.
96
N. Fukami
residential areas, most of the fields around the villages gradually and informally
became residential. The dwelling sites followed the field forms, and multistory
traditional masonry apartment buildings were built, usually with three
30–50 m
2 units per floor. Thus, densely occupied, multistory residence structures
arose.
Typically, informal development overseen by private companies results in insufficient infrastructure for lower-income megacity residents, who have left their rural
areas to seek work in the megacity. These informal developments are sometimes
referred to as “slums” or “shanty towns.” Historically, these areas were developed
based on the local urban traditions, as were the residential developments on farmland
in Jakarta and Cairo. However, because cheap high-rise apartments can increase
density, this new method, which was imported from other regions, came to prevail in
the poor areas of these countries, despite their different historical traditions. For
example, Kolkata in monsoon Asia has multistory high-rises and high-density
apartments for poor people. Thus, not only formal housing but also informal housing
has become global. To understand the nature of these provisional developments, it is
necessary to understand the culture of the region.
5.4.3 Future Megacities from a Regional Perspective
In this section, we estimate the number of future megacities for each region. Based
on the cities in the UN data set, Annual Population of Urban Agglomerations with
300,000 or more in 2018, we compare the regions’ situations for 2000–2035. Each
region differs in terms of population, the number of cities and megacities, and the
estimated number of megacities after 2035 (Table 5.5).
In upper Eurasia, the number of cities with over 4 million inhabitants remain
constant, as mentioned earlier, and only one additional city, St. Petersburg, is
predicted to reach over 5 million in 2035. Thus, the appearance of a new megacity
after 2035 is likely to take a long time in this region.
In North America and Oceania, in contrast to upper Eurasia, the number of cities
over 4 million has increased and is estimated to continue increasing. The population
of New York is estimated to exceed 20 million by 2035. Chicago is expected to reach
9 million in 2035, and thus will reach the 10-million megacity threshold soon after
2035. However, the number of cities with populations over 4 million remains fixed at
16 after 2015.
In Latin America, the number of cities over 4 million has increased and is
estimated to increase more than in North America and Oceania. There were only
six cities with 10 million or more people from 2020, and the populations of these
cities remain constant to 2035 as shown in Table 5.2. However, one additional city,
Santiago, is predicted to reach 7 million by 2030. Again, we predict that the
appearance of a new megacity after 2035 will take a long time in this region.
96
N. Fukami