Interpreting Ecological Civilization with the Latest Results …
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(2) The model B: leaping forward to pursue the target. It is hoped that developing
countries immediately go from low human development with a low ecological
footprint to high human development with a low ecological footprint required
for sustainable development, which means reducing the ecological footprint
while increasing the human development level. This line of thinking, though
seems reasonable, doesn’t work. The reason is that the model B often requires
a high degree of ideological, institutional and technological innovation, but
developing countries who are generally restricted by outmoded concepts, oldfashioned systems, and old technologies, always incline to follow what has
been set before them. Since the reform and opening up, China has repeatedly
proposed to avoid the western path of “pollution before treatment”; however, its
per capita ecological footprint has now reached 2.2 global hectares, an amount
still lower than the global ones of 2.6 hectares, but higher than the 1.7 hectares,
or the earth’s per capita ecological carrying capacity. As such, it is no longer
possible for China to follow the model B, which would negatively affect its
modernization process without satisfying the people’s basic needs, and also fail
to meet the inherent requirements of sustainable development and ecological
civilization.
(3) The model C: pursuing green competitiveness. The significance of this model
for the development of China is to increase its per capita GDP to an amount
between USD 20,000 and 30,000, and the human development index to more
than 0.8. China’s per capita ecological footprint may rise to an amount that
would exceed the per capita carrying capacity of the earth, but it would be
strictly kept under the average global per capita ecological footprint level, or
2.6 global hectares, far less than 3.5 hectares of developed countries. This is a
grand goal of green development. If China could achieve it, it would reach the
modernization level of developed countries with a lower per capita ecological
footprint. Therefore, China’s goal of achieving ecological civilization by 2035
needs to have upper and lower limits in terms of its ecological footprint goal—
the per capita ecological footprint close to the ecological carrying capacity
at that time makes the lower limit, and the amount never exceeding that of
developed countries makes the upper one. By 2020, China will begin to enter
the middle tier of the doughnut, with the per capita GDP close to USD 10,000
and the human development index standing at about 0.8. If it can meet the basic
requirements of ecological civilization through smart growth that is green,
inclusive, and innovative, it is possible for China to stay in the middle tier
where it can achieve high economic and social development through acceptable
consumption of the earth’s natural capital. At that time, it must strive to realize
three goals marked by 20%—namely, a population less than 20% of the world,
a total economic volume exceeding 20% of the world, and a reduced ecological
footprint impact smaller than 20% of the world.
(4) The theoretical significance of the mode C for China’s development. For a long
time to come, the main task of China will still be to achieve industrialization,
urbanization, and modernization. Compared with the ecological civilization
of western post-industrial societies, the ecological civilization with Chinese
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(2) The model B: leaping forward to pursue the target. It is hoped that developing
countries immediately go from low human development with a low ecological
footprint to high human development with a low ecological footprint required
for sustainable development, which means reducing the ecological footprint
while increasing the human development level. This line of thinking, though
seems reasonable, doesn’t work. The reason is that the model B often requires
a high degree of ideological, institutional and technological innovation, but
developing countries who are generally restricted by outmoded concepts, oldfashioned systems, and old technologies, always incline to follow what has
been set before them. Since the reform and opening up, China has repeatedly
proposed to avoid the western path of “pollution before treatment”; however, its
per capita ecological footprint has now reached 2.2 global hectares, an amount
still lower than the global ones of 2.6 hectares, but higher than the 1.7 hectares,
or the earth’s per capita ecological carrying capacity. As such, it is no longer
possible for China to follow the model B, which would negatively affect its
modernization process without satisfying the people’s basic needs, and also fail
to meet the inherent requirements of sustainable development and ecological
civilization.
(3) The model C: pursuing green competitiveness. The significance of this model
for the development of China is to increase its per capita GDP to an amount
between USD 20,000 and 30,000, and the human development index to more
than 0.8. China’s per capita ecological footprint may rise to an amount that
would exceed the per capita carrying capacity of the earth, but it would be
strictly kept under the average global per capita ecological footprint level, or
2.6 global hectares, far less than 3.5 hectares of developed countries. This is a
grand goal of green development. If China could achieve it, it would reach the
modernization level of developed countries with a lower per capita ecological
footprint. Therefore, China’s goal of achieving ecological civilization by 2035
needs to have upper and lower limits in terms of its ecological footprint goal—
the per capita ecological footprint close to the ecological carrying capacity
at that time makes the lower limit, and the amount never exceeding that of
developed countries makes the upper one. By 2020, China will begin to enter
the middle tier of the doughnut, with the per capita GDP close to USD 10,000
and the human development index standing at about 0.8. If it can meet the basic
requirements of ecological civilization through smart growth that is green,
inclusive, and innovative, it is possible for China to stay in the middle tier
where it can achieve high economic and social development through acceptable
consumption of the earth’s natural capital. At that time, it must strive to realize
three goals marked by 20%—namely, a population less than 20% of the world,
a total economic volume exceeding 20% of the world, and a reduced ecological
footprint impact smaller than 20% of the world.
(4) The theoretical significance of the mode C for China’s development. For a long
time to come, the main task of China will still be to achieve industrialization,
urbanization, and modernization. Compared with the ecological civilization
of western post-industrial societies, the ecological civilization with Chinese