8
H. Schlör et al.
100
104
133
133
133
133
133
118
121
100
173
760
100
100
168
194
223
264
350
450
731
950
2654
4639
100
100
100
100
132
314
451
611
1023
2390
3757
7117
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1
1000
1500
1600
1700
1820
1850
1870
1900
1950
1970
2000
Per Capita GDP - 1=100
China
Germany
USA
Fig. 4 Per capita GDP − 1 = 100. Source Own calculations (2020), based on Maddison and
Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC) [48]
In China (Fig. 4), per capita GDP remained more or less the same until 1000 and
then rose slowly until 1500, before it stagnated until 1850, and then shrunk again
until 1950 to the level of year 1. During this middle period, there was no economic
growth and per capita GDP remained constant for nearly 500 years. In Germany,
instead, per capita GDP remained roughly constant for the first 1000 years, before it
more than doubled until 1700. Then the per capita GDP increased constantly until
2000. In the USA, there was almost no per capita GDP growth for nearly 1700 years.
It started to grow after 1820 and then the economic performance rose sharply with
per capita GDP increasing constantly until 2000.
Given the examples of China (with almost no economic growth per capita for
2000 years) and the USA (with also almost no per capita welfare growth for nearly
1700 years), we can safely conclude that economic growth is not a natural constant.
It, instead, depends on the socio-economic circumstances. However, de-growth is
not only a historical event in Italy and China, as the economic effects of the Corona
pandemic currently show.
2.2 Corona Virus—A Historical Economic Growth Break-In
The COVID-19 pandemic and the related governmental containment measures
caused a collapse of the world trade and many other economic activities (tourism,
capital flows, remittance) [2]. The global shutdowns initiated by the governments
around the world caused a tremendous downturn of the global economy, as Table 4
based on the estimates by the World Bank shows [93].
H. Schlör et al.
100
104
133
133
133
133
133
118
121
100
173
760
100
100
168
194
223
264
350
450
731
950
2654
4639
100
100
100
100
132
314
451
611
1023
2390
3757
7117
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1
1000
1500
1600
1700
1820
1850
1870
1900
1950
1970
2000
Per Capita GDP - 1=100
China
Germany
USA
Fig. 4 Per capita GDP − 1 = 100. Source Own calculations (2020), based on Maddison and
Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC) [48]
In China (Fig. 4), per capita GDP remained more or less the same until 1000 and
then rose slowly until 1500, before it stagnated until 1850, and then shrunk again
until 1950 to the level of year 1. During this middle period, there was no economic
growth and per capita GDP remained constant for nearly 500 years. In Germany,
instead, per capita GDP remained roughly constant for the first 1000 years, before it
more than doubled until 1700. Then the per capita GDP increased constantly until
2000. In the USA, there was almost no per capita GDP growth for nearly 1700 years.
It started to grow after 1820 and then the economic performance rose sharply with
per capita GDP increasing constantly until 2000.
Given the examples of China (with almost no economic growth per capita for
2000 years) and the USA (with also almost no per capita welfare growth for nearly
1700 years), we can safely conclude that economic growth is not a natural constant.
It, instead, depends on the socio-economic circumstances. However, de-growth is
not only a historical event in Italy and China, as the economic effects of the Corona
pandemic currently show.
2.2 Corona Virus—A Historical Economic Growth Break-In
The COVID-19 pandemic and the related governmental containment measures
caused a collapse of the world trade and many other economic activities (tourism,
capital flows, remittance) [2]. The global shutdowns initiated by the governments
around the world caused a tremendous downturn of the global economy, as Table 4
based on the estimates by the World Bank shows [93].