Distribute and Be Damned 53
The role of technology has always been important in such disruption
and for del Rosal, its starting point is the exponential computing power
growth, as exemplified by – but not limited to – Moore’s Law, the heuristic that the number of transistors that can be added to a piece of silicon doubles every 18 months or so. Writing in 2015, del Rosal argued
that the ability to include the power of 30 mobile phones in one case by
2025 would lead to novel forms of interaction – eye wear as an interface, augmented reality, motion sensing, and haptic feedback.
57
Some
of those technologies, AR in particular, seem to be progressing in a way
that fits del Rosal’s schema, but perhaps the most impressive interface
development in the three years since he wrote his book – voice – is barely
mentioned by him at all, while Google Glass, an innovation discussed in
some detail, looks set to be relegated to a niche product. This is not to
mock del Rosal’s futurology per se, but to draw attention to a common
mistake made by techno-evangelists who operate within a limited mode
of technological determination and ignore social or cultural parameters.
The demise of Google Glass was much less to do with technological
considerations (which, so the argument goes, can always be overcome
by exponential computing power growth) than the fact that other people
became increasingly confrontational when faced with the possibility of
being recorded by Glass wearers, as well as that such wearers tended not
to like being referred to as “glassholes”: sometimes, fashion sense has
as important role to play as technology, otherwise, we would have long
been driving Sinclair C5s.
A focus on technology alone, then, is always a mistake when considering the impact of disruptive technologies. Dobbs, Manyika, and Woetzel
are more effective in determining underlying macro forces driving largescale changes in the world.
58
They list these four categories as: the rise of
emerging markets; technology as a means of accelerating the “natural”
forces of the market; an ageing world population; and accelerating flows
of trade, capital, and people. These categories – of which technology
is but one part – are effecting huge transformations, such as the shift
of markets from the west to the east, a greying workforce that can no
longer retire at such an early age, and increasing globalisation. Writing
in 2016, Dobbs, Manyika, and Woetzel do not take into account reactions against such globalisation as expressed in events such as Brexit, the
populist policies of Donald Trump, or anti-immigration trends throughout the advanced economies; it is too early to write off corrective effects within such populist expressions, but the fact that in the decades
ahead half of the world’s economic growth will come from massive cities
such as Kumasi in Ghana or Santa Catarina in Brazil – largely ignored
by western political elites today – indicates that the centre of gravity
will inevitably shift away from the West. This, then, is a part of the
socio-economic shift that is taking place now across the globe that will
indeed transform all parts of the economy, the media included. Dobbs,
The role of technology has always been important in such disruption
and for del Rosal, its starting point is the exponential computing power
growth, as exemplified by – but not limited to – Moore’s Law, the heuristic that the number of transistors that can be added to a piece of silicon doubles every 18 months or so. Writing in 2015, del Rosal argued
that the ability to include the power of 30 mobile phones in one case by
2025 would lead to novel forms of interaction – eye wear as an interface, augmented reality, motion sensing, and haptic feedback.
57
Some
of those technologies, AR in particular, seem to be progressing in a way
that fits del Rosal’s schema, but perhaps the most impressive interface
development in the three years since he wrote his book – voice – is barely
mentioned by him at all, while Google Glass, an innovation discussed in
some detail, looks set to be relegated to a niche product. This is not to
mock del Rosal’s futurology per se, but to draw attention to a common
mistake made by techno-evangelists who operate within a limited mode
of technological determination and ignore social or cultural parameters.
The demise of Google Glass was much less to do with technological
considerations (which, so the argument goes, can always be overcome
by exponential computing power growth) than the fact that other people
became increasingly confrontational when faced with the possibility of
being recorded by Glass wearers, as well as that such wearers tended not
to like being referred to as “glassholes”: sometimes, fashion sense has
as important role to play as technology, otherwise, we would have long
been driving Sinclair C5s.
A focus on technology alone, then, is always a mistake when considering the impact of disruptive technologies. Dobbs, Manyika, and Woetzel
are more effective in determining underlying macro forces driving largescale changes in the world.
58
They list these four categories as: the rise of
emerging markets; technology as a means of accelerating the “natural”
forces of the market; an ageing world population; and accelerating flows
of trade, capital, and people. These categories – of which technology
is but one part – are effecting huge transformations, such as the shift
of markets from the west to the east, a greying workforce that can no
longer retire at such an early age, and increasing globalisation. Writing
in 2016, Dobbs, Manyika, and Woetzel do not take into account reactions against such globalisation as expressed in events such as Brexit, the
populist policies of Donald Trump, or anti-immigration trends throughout the advanced economies; it is too early to write off corrective effects within such populist expressions, but the fact that in the decades
ahead half of the world’s economic growth will come from massive cities
such as Kumasi in Ghana or Santa Catarina in Brazil – largely ignored
by western political elites today – indicates that the centre of gravity
will inevitably shift away from the West. This, then, is a part of the
socio-economic shift that is taking place now across the globe that will
indeed transform all parts of the economy, the media included. Dobbs,