Regional Changes in Refined Zinc
Output and Demand
Claire Hassall
Abstract Global refined zinc output has grown from 8.9 Mt in 2000 to around
11.8 Mt in 2019, an increase of almost 3 Mt. Only 530 kt of this increase occurred
outside China, while China’s output rose by over 2.4 Mt. The major expansion in
China’s refined zinc production capacity took place in the ten years to 2010, with
some further moderate increase to 2016, but there has been a net decrease in capacity
since then. Refined zinc usage globally grew from 8.9 Mt in 2000 to 12.2 Mt in 2019,
an increase of 3.3 Mt, but China accounted for more than this total rise, effectively
taking away zinc demand from the rest of world. However, China’s share of global
zinc demand is now changing as its economy matures and, in the last 3 years, China’s
demand for zinc has stagnated at best, and in some years has fallen significantly.
Higher costs, more extensive and better enforced environmental regulations, and the
effect of trade disputes have seen China’s manufacturing industry more constrained,
with some Chinese manufacturing companies now basing activities off-shore, and
with other countries now better able to compete in world markets than in the initial
10–15 years after China’s entry into the WTO at the end of 2002. The last nine years
have seen 13 zinc smelters outside China close, with the loss of close to 1 Mt of
annual capacity. The last greenfield zinc smelter ex-China was commissioned in
2010, and capacity expansions have taken place at a number of plants, notably in
South Korea, Mexico, India, and Norway, compensating for capacity losses, but
not adding to capacity overall. The next five years are expected to see growth in
refined zinc demand concentrated in countries other than China, with South-Eastern
and South Asian countries leading the way. This raises the question of where and
how the additional requirement for refined zinc will be met and whether China will
play any role in supplying zinc to these expanding markets. This presentation will
provide an analysis of recent regional changes in zinc demand and supply as outlined
above and examine the prospects for future zinc demand and the potential sources
of additional refined zinc output globally.
Keywords Refined zinc demand · Refined zinc production · Chinese zinc market
C. Hassall (B)
CHR Metals Limited, 11 Church Street, Godalming GU7 1EQ, UK
e-mail: claire.hassall@chrmetals.com
© The Minerals, Metals & Materials Society 2020
A. Siegmund et al. (eds.), PbZn 2020: 9th International Symposium
on Lead and Zinc Processing, The Minerals, Metals & Materials Series,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37070-1_53
615
Output and Demand
Claire Hassall
Abstract Global refined zinc output has grown from 8.9 Mt in 2000 to around
11.8 Mt in 2019, an increase of almost 3 Mt. Only 530 kt of this increase occurred
outside China, while China’s output rose by over 2.4 Mt. The major expansion in
China’s refined zinc production capacity took place in the ten years to 2010, with
some further moderate increase to 2016, but there has been a net decrease in capacity
since then. Refined zinc usage globally grew from 8.9 Mt in 2000 to 12.2 Mt in 2019,
an increase of 3.3 Mt, but China accounted for more than this total rise, effectively
taking away zinc demand from the rest of world. However, China’s share of global
zinc demand is now changing as its economy matures and, in the last 3 years, China’s
demand for zinc has stagnated at best, and in some years has fallen significantly.
Higher costs, more extensive and better enforced environmental regulations, and the
effect of trade disputes have seen China’s manufacturing industry more constrained,
with some Chinese manufacturing companies now basing activities off-shore, and
with other countries now better able to compete in world markets than in the initial
10–15 years after China’s entry into the WTO at the end of 2002. The last nine years
have seen 13 zinc smelters outside China close, with the loss of close to 1 Mt of
annual capacity. The last greenfield zinc smelter ex-China was commissioned in
2010, and capacity expansions have taken place at a number of plants, notably in
South Korea, Mexico, India, and Norway, compensating for capacity losses, but
not adding to capacity overall. The next five years are expected to see growth in
refined zinc demand concentrated in countries other than China, with South-Eastern
and South Asian countries leading the way. This raises the question of where and
how the additional requirement for refined zinc will be met and whether China will
play any role in supplying zinc to these expanding markets. This presentation will
provide an analysis of recent regional changes in zinc demand and supply as outlined
above and examine the prospects for future zinc demand and the potential sources
of additional refined zinc output globally.
Keywords Refined zinc demand · Refined zinc production · Chinese zinc market
C. Hassall (B)
CHR Metals Limited, 11 Church Street, Godalming GU7 1EQ, UK
e-mail: claire.hassall@chrmetals.com
© The Minerals, Metals & Materials Society 2020
A. Siegmund et al. (eds.), PbZn 2020: 9th International Symposium
on Lead and Zinc Processing, The Minerals, Metals & Materials Series,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37070-1_53
615