Evolution of Global Secondary Lead Production
15
In the more immediate future, the industry in China will be watching developments
in the e-bike market very closely for signs that consumers are accepting smaller, li–
ion powered e-bikes as a substitute for larger e-bikes powered by lead–acid batteries.
Even if this is the case there will be a period of transition as most local authorities
have put in place temporary registration schemes, in some cases through to 2022,
for e-bikes already on the road that do not meet the new standard. However, if a new
market for electric motorcycles still powered by lead–acid batteries does not emerge
over the next 12–18 months, this will be bad news, not only for battery recyclers in
China, but also for the global market for refined lead.
The threat to lead–acid batteries over the next ten years from electric vehicles,
in China and elsewhere, is unlikely to be that marked. In the first place, current
ambitious forecasts for electric vehicle sales may not be met, just as they have not
been met over the past five years, as consumer concern about high vehicle prices
and limited charging infrastructure continue to deter the growth of a mass market for
these vehicles. This means that the conventional vehicle fleet, powered by internal
combustion engine or hybrid power trains, will continue to expand creating demand
for lead–acid batteries and the need for used batteries to be recycled.
Figure 6 charts CHR Metals’ forecast for global secondary lead production over
the period to 2030. From around 10 Mt in 2018, secondary lead production via battery
recyclers and from feed processed by primary smelters is expected to rise to a little
over 11 Mt by 2030. The major regional areas of production, North America, Europe,
and China are forecast to see little overall growth past 2020, with output in China
quite possibly dipping towards the end of the forecast period. Modest, but further
growth is forecast in other Asian countries, especially India, as well as in parts of
South America and Africa.
Fig. 6 Global secondary lead production including via primary smelters
15
In the more immediate future, the industry in China will be watching developments
in the e-bike market very closely for signs that consumers are accepting smaller, li–
ion powered e-bikes as a substitute for larger e-bikes powered by lead–acid batteries.
Even if this is the case there will be a period of transition as most local authorities
have put in place temporary registration schemes, in some cases through to 2022,
for e-bikes already on the road that do not meet the new standard. However, if a new
market for electric motorcycles still powered by lead–acid batteries does not emerge
over the next 12–18 months, this will be bad news, not only for battery recyclers in
China, but also for the global market for refined lead.
The threat to lead–acid batteries over the next ten years from electric vehicles,
in China and elsewhere, is unlikely to be that marked. In the first place, current
ambitious forecasts for electric vehicle sales may not be met, just as they have not
been met over the past five years, as consumer concern about high vehicle prices
and limited charging infrastructure continue to deter the growth of a mass market for
these vehicles. This means that the conventional vehicle fleet, powered by internal
combustion engine or hybrid power trains, will continue to expand creating demand
for lead–acid batteries and the need for used batteries to be recycled.
Figure 6 charts CHR Metals’ forecast for global secondary lead production over
the period to 2030. From around 10 Mt in 2018, secondary lead production via battery
recyclers and from feed processed by primary smelters is expected to rise to a little
over 11 Mt by 2030. The major regional areas of production, North America, Europe,
and China are forecast to see little overall growth past 2020, with output in China
quite possibly dipping towards the end of the forecast period. Modest, but further
growth is forecast in other Asian countries, especially India, as well as in parts of
South America and Africa.
Fig. 6 Global secondary lead production including via primary smelters