27
are not reduced at the same rate, the carbon budget should be reduced by up to a
further 210–790 Gt (Rogelj et al. 2018, p. 104). Cumulative emissions from 1870
through 2017 equalled 575 Gt (Collins et al. 2013; Le Queré et al. 2018). Thus, the
remaining carbon budget amounts to 215 Gt. Given the current global annual emission rate of 10 Gt CO 2 , the remaining carbon budget would be consumed in little
more than two decades (Le Queré et al. 2018).
The most relevant consequence of carbon budgets evidence from a legal and
policy relate to the need to halt further carbon intensive projects—such as greenfield
oil sands, coal mines, etc.—over the next decades. A recent study commissioned by
the European Union notes that such effort would be worth a 1.6 USD trillion risk on
the oil and gas industry (Carbon Tracker Initiative 2018).
2.3 Attribution of Historic GHG Emissions to Specific Entities
The larger-than-average contribution to GHG emissions generated by some countries and companies, raises the issue as to whether such entities can be held individually responsible for the resulting climate change impacts, even where these
effects will be felt globally.
Since 2013, scientists have begun to attribute operational and product GHG
emissions, thus showcasing a producer-side view of climate accountability (Heede
2013). The Carbon Major Report now attributes 63% of the CO 2 and methane emitted between 1751 and 2010 to 90 entities: Fifty investor-owned companies, such as
Chevron, Peabody, Shell, and BHP Billiton; thirty-one state-owned companies,
such as Saudi Aramco and Statoil; nine government-run industries in countries,
such as China, Poland, and the former Soviet Union (Heede et al. 2014).
3
The
research also classified the 90 entities according to type of fossil fuel extracted and
marketed—56 oil and natural gas companies and 37 coal producers. In addition,
CO 2 emissions from seven cement manufacturers are included. Half of the emissions traced to the ninety “carbon majors” have occurred since 1986, demonstrating
the increasing speed with which fossil fuels are being burned. These findings are far
from settling the controversial moral issue as to who should bear present remedial
responsibility as a result of historic GHG emissions (Butt 2017). Yet, they indeed
constitute a path-breaking scientific development with thorough legal implications,
as they enable to strengthen the causal chain between some specific entities’ conducts and the—already recognized—hazardous risk of detrimental consequences of
global warming.
3 In sum, the calculations draw from companies or entities net fossil fuel production data from
publicly available sources, as factored with each fuel’s carbon content, deduction for non-energy
uses of produced fuels, and emission factors for each fuel, for each entity, and for every year for
which production data have been found.
Climate Science Before the Courts: Turning the Tide in Climate Change Litigation
are not reduced at the same rate, the carbon budget should be reduced by up to a
further 210–790 Gt (Rogelj et al. 2018, p. 104). Cumulative emissions from 1870
through 2017 equalled 575 Gt (Collins et al. 2013; Le Queré et al. 2018). Thus, the
remaining carbon budget amounts to 215 Gt. Given the current global annual emission rate of 10 Gt CO 2 , the remaining carbon budget would be consumed in little
more than two decades (Le Queré et al. 2018).
The most relevant consequence of carbon budgets evidence from a legal and
policy relate to the need to halt further carbon intensive projects—such as greenfield
oil sands, coal mines, etc.—over the next decades. A recent study commissioned by
the European Union notes that such effort would be worth a 1.6 USD trillion risk on
the oil and gas industry (Carbon Tracker Initiative 2018).
2.3 Attribution of Historic GHG Emissions to Specific Entities
The larger-than-average contribution to GHG emissions generated by some countries and companies, raises the issue as to whether such entities can be held individually responsible for the resulting climate change impacts, even where these
effects will be felt globally.
Since 2013, scientists have begun to attribute operational and product GHG
emissions, thus showcasing a producer-side view of climate accountability (Heede
2013). The Carbon Major Report now attributes 63% of the CO 2 and methane emitted between 1751 and 2010 to 90 entities: Fifty investor-owned companies, such as
Chevron, Peabody, Shell, and BHP Billiton; thirty-one state-owned companies,
such as Saudi Aramco and Statoil; nine government-run industries in countries,
such as China, Poland, and the former Soviet Union (Heede et al. 2014).
3
The
research also classified the 90 entities according to type of fossil fuel extracted and
marketed—56 oil and natural gas companies and 37 coal producers. In addition,
CO 2 emissions from seven cement manufacturers are included. Half of the emissions traced to the ninety “carbon majors” have occurred since 1986, demonstrating
the increasing speed with which fossil fuels are being burned. These findings are far
from settling the controversial moral issue as to who should bear present remedial
responsibility as a result of historic GHG emissions (Butt 2017). Yet, they indeed
constitute a path-breaking scientific development with thorough legal implications,
as they enable to strengthen the causal chain between some specific entities’ conducts and the—already recognized—hazardous risk of detrimental consequences of
global warming.
3 In sum, the calculations draw from companies or entities net fossil fuel production data from
publicly available sources, as factored with each fuel’s carbon content, deduction for non-energy
uses of produced fuels, and emission factors for each fuel, for each entity, and for every year for
which production data have been found.
Climate Science Before the Courts: Turning the Tide in Climate Change Litigation