204
alarming given that biodiversity supports core services and functions, upon which
the stability and integrity of ecological systems depends (Lohbeck et al. 2016).
Moreover, persistent nitrate pollution of European waterways continues to pose
major risks to the environment, as well as human and animal health in MSs such as
the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain and Germany where low water quality has consistently been reported as a direct result of agricultural management and production
practices in the livestock sectors (EU Commission 2018). Likewise, declining soil
quality is a serious challenge across the EU, with 45% of soils exhibiting low or
very low carbon content (Pe’er et al. 2014).
That said, some of the greatest challenges to future productivity in the EU are
expected to result from climate change and increasingly disruptive weather patterns
(IPCC 2019). Indeed, higher temperatures, irregular precipitation, rising sea levels
and increased frequencies of drought have already been experienced across the EU,
with varying regional implications for agriculture (Kovats et al. 2014). A particularly severe and recent example may be made with reference to the extensive drought
experienced in the spring and summer of 2018 in Northern Europe, which resulted
in reductions in main crop yields by up to 50%, compared to the previous year,
across the affected regions (Reinermann et al. 2019). At the same time, it should be
added that this drought coincided with especially wet conditions in parts of Southern
Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, where crop yields improved by up to 35%
(Toreti 2019). Notwithstanding instances of increased yields, the EU’s Joint
Research Council expects that hotter and more extreme weather conditions will
pose significant risks to food security in the long-term (Toreti 2019).
In addition to being one of the sectors most affected by climate change, agriculture is also a key driver of this process and is responsible for a significant share of
EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when spillover effects for other sectors are
considered (Fellmann et al. 2018). On the contrary, as the main source of land-use,
agriculture is in a unique position to contribute to climate change mitigation and
adaptation strategies, for instance, by protecting soil carbon deposits and improving
the capacity of soils to sequester and absorb atmospheric carbon (Fernández-Getino
et al. 2017). Unlocking this potential is therefore seen as a key priority for addressing climate change and realizing emission reduction targets under the CAP
(European Council 2014). In order to explore the extent to which such outcomes
may be possible, it is necessary to consider key elements of the current CAP framework, as well as the EU Commissions pending proposals for future reform.
3 The 2014–2020 CAP Framework: Expected Outcomes
The CAP’s agri-environmental framework was last updated in 2013, when the
Council and European Parliament (EP) agreed on a reform package for the
2014–2020 period. As in the case of each major overhaul of the CAP, the 2013
reform ushered in multiple changes to the existing framework and of key concern,
for present purposes, is the introduction of three so called ‘greening’ measures
A. A. Epstein
alarming given that biodiversity supports core services and functions, upon which
the stability and integrity of ecological systems depends (Lohbeck et al. 2016).
Moreover, persistent nitrate pollution of European waterways continues to pose
major risks to the environment, as well as human and animal health in MSs such as
the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain and Germany where low water quality has consistently been reported as a direct result of agricultural management and production
practices in the livestock sectors (EU Commission 2018). Likewise, declining soil
quality is a serious challenge across the EU, with 45% of soils exhibiting low or
very low carbon content (Pe’er et al. 2014).
That said, some of the greatest challenges to future productivity in the EU are
expected to result from climate change and increasingly disruptive weather patterns
(IPCC 2019). Indeed, higher temperatures, irregular precipitation, rising sea levels
and increased frequencies of drought have already been experienced across the EU,
with varying regional implications for agriculture (Kovats et al. 2014). A particularly severe and recent example may be made with reference to the extensive drought
experienced in the spring and summer of 2018 in Northern Europe, which resulted
in reductions in main crop yields by up to 50%, compared to the previous year,
across the affected regions (Reinermann et al. 2019). At the same time, it should be
added that this drought coincided with especially wet conditions in parts of Southern
Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, where crop yields improved by up to 35%
(Toreti 2019). Notwithstanding instances of increased yields, the EU’s Joint
Research Council expects that hotter and more extreme weather conditions will
pose significant risks to food security in the long-term (Toreti 2019).
In addition to being one of the sectors most affected by climate change, agriculture is also a key driver of this process and is responsible for a significant share of
EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when spillover effects for other sectors are
considered (Fellmann et al. 2018). On the contrary, as the main source of land-use,
agriculture is in a unique position to contribute to climate change mitigation and
adaptation strategies, for instance, by protecting soil carbon deposits and improving
the capacity of soils to sequester and absorb atmospheric carbon (Fernández-Getino
et al. 2017). Unlocking this potential is therefore seen as a key priority for addressing climate change and realizing emission reduction targets under the CAP
(European Council 2014). In order to explore the extent to which such outcomes
may be possible, it is necessary to consider key elements of the current CAP framework, as well as the EU Commissions pending proposals for future reform.
3 The 2014–2020 CAP Framework: Expected Outcomes
The CAP’s agri-environmental framework was last updated in 2013, when the
Council and European Parliament (EP) agreed on a reform package for the
2014–2020 period. As in the case of each major overhaul of the CAP, the 2013
reform ushered in multiple changes to the existing framework and of key concern,
for present purposes, is the introduction of three so called ‘greening’ measures
A. A. Epstein