3
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to
Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
L. Westra et al. (eds.), Ecological Integrity in Science and Law,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-46259-8_1
Lessons Learned from IPCC’s
Underestimation of Climate Change
Impacts About the Need
for a Precautionary Climate Change
Science
Donald A. Brown
Abstract Several recent studies reveal that the International Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), the organization created by the international community to synthesize the peer-reviewed climate change science to provide governments with objective, scientific understanding of climate change, its natural, political and economic
impacts and risks, and possible response options has been underestimating likely
climate change impacts. Analysis of the causes of IPCC’s failure to identify the
likely worst climate change impacts attributes the IPCCs underestimation of climate
change impacts to: (a) the “consensus” methods of IPCC processes and, (b) that the
relevant sciences follow epistemic norms designed to prevent false positive conclusions about cause and effect. This chapter argues that given the enormous potential
harms from climate change, a precautionary science that allows scientists to identify
all scientifically plausible harms is required by ethics and international legal
principles.
1 Recent Evidence That IPCC Is Underestimating Climate
Change Impacts
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the UN body established for assessing the sciences related to climate change. It was established by the
United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization
in 1988 to provide policymakers with regular scientific assessments of climate
change issues, its implications and potential future risks, as well as to put forward
adaptation and mitigation strategies. It has 195 member states (IPCC 2019).
D. A. Brown (*)
Widener University, Commonwealth Law School, Harrisburg, PA, USA
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to
Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
L. Westra et al. (eds.), Ecological Integrity in Science and Law,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-46259-8_1
Lessons Learned from IPCC’s
Underestimation of Climate Change
Impacts About the Need
for a Precautionary Climate Change
Science
Donald A. Brown
Abstract Several recent studies reveal that the International Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), the organization created by the international community to synthesize the peer-reviewed climate change science to provide governments with objective, scientific understanding of climate change, its natural, political and economic
impacts and risks, and possible response options has been underestimating likely
climate change impacts. Analysis of the causes of IPCC’s failure to identify the
likely worst climate change impacts attributes the IPCCs underestimation of climate
change impacts to: (a) the “consensus” methods of IPCC processes and, (b) that the
relevant sciences follow epistemic norms designed to prevent false positive conclusions about cause and effect. This chapter argues that given the enormous potential
harms from climate change, a precautionary science that allows scientists to identify
all scientifically plausible harms is required by ethics and international legal
principles.
1 Recent Evidence That IPCC Is Underestimating Climate
Change Impacts
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the UN body established for assessing the sciences related to climate change. It was established by the
United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization
in 1988 to provide policymakers with regular scientific assessments of climate
change issues, its implications and potential future risks, as well as to put forward
adaptation and mitigation strategies. It has 195 member states (IPCC 2019).
D. A. Brown (*)
Widener University, Commonwealth Law School, Harrisburg, PA, USA