Chapter 6
Emerging Challenges to Transboundary
Water Governance
6.1 Overview
The theories, laws and institutions of today’s transboundary water governance
regimes have evolved in relatively stable hydro-climatic conditions over the past century or so. These regimes therefore reflect a high degree of stationarity, an assumption that the physical design parameters of the management of international rivers
are sufficiently well-known and largely predictable.
The past few decades have, however, brought about such fundamental changes
into the key factors of water management (i.e. natural hydrology and human uses)
that may render established frameworks of transboundary water governance unsuitable in the future. Order-of-magnitude increases in human population, atmospheric
greenhouse gas emissions or agricultural water use—just to name a few—have triggered an unfolding global water crisis that is likely to have significant repercussions
on co-riparian relations even in historically water-abundant, cooperative and wealthy
regions of the world. Evidently, the security and political implications of the water
crisis multiply in areas characterised by arid conditions, high anthropogenic water
stress or political instability.
As a consequence, the stability of political relations among states sharing freshwater resources has recently become a major subject of interest for governments,
international organisations and academia alike. Findings of empirical research on
the issue in the past two decades suggest that the key determinants of transboundary water cooperation are not one (or a handful) powerful hydrological or political
driver(s), such as water scarcity or unilateralism. Instead, the stability of transboundary water relations depends on the capacity of the governance regime in place to
absorb changes that go beyond the range of previously observed events. Such capacity can be measured through the presence of a number of formal components of treaty
design (e.g. allocation formula, dispute settlement mechanism, etc.) and a series of
qualitative criteria (e.g. history of regional conflicts, relative wealth discrepancies
among riparian states, etc.).
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
G. Baranyai, European Water Law and Hydropolitics, Water Governance - Concepts,
Methods, and Practice, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22541-4_6
53
Emerging Challenges to Transboundary
Water Governance
6.1 Overview
The theories, laws and institutions of today’s transboundary water governance
regimes have evolved in relatively stable hydro-climatic conditions over the past century or so. These regimes therefore reflect a high degree of stationarity, an assumption that the physical design parameters of the management of international rivers
are sufficiently well-known and largely predictable.
The past few decades have, however, brought about such fundamental changes
into the key factors of water management (i.e. natural hydrology and human uses)
that may render established frameworks of transboundary water governance unsuitable in the future. Order-of-magnitude increases in human population, atmospheric
greenhouse gas emissions or agricultural water use—just to name a few—have triggered an unfolding global water crisis that is likely to have significant repercussions
on co-riparian relations even in historically water-abundant, cooperative and wealthy
regions of the world. Evidently, the security and political implications of the water
crisis multiply in areas characterised by arid conditions, high anthropogenic water
stress or political instability.
As a consequence, the stability of political relations among states sharing freshwater resources has recently become a major subject of interest for governments,
international organisations and academia alike. Findings of empirical research on
the issue in the past two decades suggest that the key determinants of transboundary water cooperation are not one (or a handful) powerful hydrological or political
driver(s), such as water scarcity or unilateralism. Instead, the stability of transboundary water relations depends on the capacity of the governance regime in place to
absorb changes that go beyond the range of previously observed events. Such capacity can be measured through the presence of a number of formal components of treaty
design (e.g. allocation formula, dispute settlement mechanism, etc.) and a series of
qualitative criteria (e.g. history of regional conflicts, relative wealth discrepancies
among riparian states, etc.).
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
G. Baranyai, European Water Law and Hydropolitics, Water Governance - Concepts,
Methods, and Practice, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22541-4_6
53