10.4 Managing Hydrological Variability
147
10.4 Managing Hydrological Variability
10.4.1 The Impact of Variability Management
on Hydropolitical Resilience
Fluctuation of flow quantities is an inherent feature of any natural river system, even
in temperate basins characterised by modest intra-annual variability. The variation
of high and low water levels plays an important regulating role in riverine ecology
and in traditional agriculture. On the other hand, a high degree of natural variability
may also act as a precursor to transboundary water conflict. Rivers with outstanding
hydrological variability and economic importance display a considerable tendency to
trigger or contribute to political tensions among basin states. As Wolf et al. conclude
“extreme events of conflicts were more frequent in marginal climates with highly
variable hydrological conditions, while the riparians of rivers with less extreme natural conditions have been more moderate in their conflict/cooperation relationship”
(Wolf et al. 2003).
Consequently, managing hydrological variability can be a major challenge in coriparian relations even at best of times. Given, however, the impacts of climate change
on the hydrological cycle and human responses thereto (e.g. more storage and/or irrigation in times of drought), controlling flow variability beyond previously recorded
ranges will give rise to new levels of political difficulty all over the world. Not surprisingly, the question features high in recent hydropolitical analyses. In fact, based
on a mathematical assessment Dinar et al. actually suggest that adaptation mechanisms for hydro-variability are one of the few key factors of co-riparian resilience
(Dinar et al. 2014).
In the broadest sense of the word variability management is essentially about dealing with naturally occurring hydrological extremes, including floods, droughts and
other specific variations. It must be pointed out that while both floods and droughts
can be considered as extreme events, their impacts on hydropolitics are quite different.
Floods are typically short term phenomena with a(n almost) mechanical knock-on
effect on downstream riparians. The downstream motion of water can be predicted
fairly precisely by widely available satellite-based technologies. On mid- and downstream areas, where population density tends to be the highest, this allows authorities
and citizens to choose the adequate level of protection. Droughts, on the other hand,
do not follow precisely calculable patterns and can prolong through several months
or years. Severe droughts trigger a variety of response measures by water managers, many of them actually resulting in the intensification of water use with severe
impacts on water availability downstream. As a consequence, flood management
features among the more “benign” collective action problems of shared river basins,
while natural or man-made water shortages or scarcity tends to be the most powerful
driver of transboundary conflict (see Fig. 3.1). Either way, variability management
is closely linked to water quantity regulation.
147
10.4 Managing Hydrological Variability
10.4.1 The Impact of Variability Management
on Hydropolitical Resilience
Fluctuation of flow quantities is an inherent feature of any natural river system, even
in temperate basins characterised by modest intra-annual variability. The variation
of high and low water levels plays an important regulating role in riverine ecology
and in traditional agriculture. On the other hand, a high degree of natural variability
may also act as a precursor to transboundary water conflict. Rivers with outstanding
hydrological variability and economic importance display a considerable tendency to
trigger or contribute to political tensions among basin states. As Wolf et al. conclude
“extreme events of conflicts were more frequent in marginal climates with highly
variable hydrological conditions, while the riparians of rivers with less extreme natural conditions have been more moderate in their conflict/cooperation relationship”
(Wolf et al. 2003).
Consequently, managing hydrological variability can be a major challenge in coriparian relations even at best of times. Given, however, the impacts of climate change
on the hydrological cycle and human responses thereto (e.g. more storage and/or irrigation in times of drought), controlling flow variability beyond previously recorded
ranges will give rise to new levels of political difficulty all over the world. Not surprisingly, the question features high in recent hydropolitical analyses. In fact, based
on a mathematical assessment Dinar et al. actually suggest that adaptation mechanisms for hydro-variability are one of the few key factors of co-riparian resilience
(Dinar et al. 2014).
In the broadest sense of the word variability management is essentially about dealing with naturally occurring hydrological extremes, including floods, droughts and
other specific variations. It must be pointed out that while both floods and droughts
can be considered as extreme events, their impacts on hydropolitics are quite different.
Floods are typically short term phenomena with a(n almost) mechanical knock-on
effect on downstream riparians. The downstream motion of water can be predicted
fairly precisely by widely available satellite-based technologies. On mid- and downstream areas, where population density tends to be the highest, this allows authorities
and citizens to choose the adequate level of protection. Droughts, on the other hand,
do not follow precisely calculable patterns and can prolong through several months
or years. Severe droughts trigger a variety of response measures by water managers, many of them actually resulting in the intensification of water use with severe
impacts on water availability downstream. As a consequence, flood management
features among the more “benign” collective action problems of shared river basins,
while natural or man-made water shortages or scarcity tends to be the most powerful
driver of transboundary conflict (see Fig. 3.1). Either way, variability management
is closely linked to water quantity regulation.