2030 in the BAU scenario. Oil and natural gas will account for 23.1 and 2.8%,
respectively. Despite attempts in China to increase nuclear energy, the installed
capacity is currently relatively small; thus its share in total primary energy consumption will be 2.8%. Hydropower and other renewable energy consumption will
account for 13.4%. Primary energy consumption changes only slightly for Japan
in the BAU scenario, because of a relatively low economic growth rate. Coal, oil,
and natural gas will account for 19.0, 54.5, and 17.3%, respectively, of total primary
energy consumption by 2030. Nuclear will account for 4.5% with 1.0 EJ in 2030.
Hydropower and other renewable energy will account for approximately 4.7%. The
total primary energy consumption of Korea will increase by 17.5% from 2020 to
2030 in the BAU scenario, and coal, oil, and natural gas will account for 18.6, 46.9,
and 15.7%, respectively, in 2030. Nuclear power will account for 15.9% and
hydropower and other renewable energy approximately 2.9%.
Carbon emissions are reduced through switching carbon-intensive fossil fuels for
fuels with lower carbon intensity or carbon-free fuels. In 2030, coal consumption in
China will decrease from 58.0% in the BAU scenario to 45.2% in the TAR scenario.
Oil will increase from 23.1% in BAU to 26.0% in TAR. Natural gas will increase
from 2.8% in BAU to 3.5% in TAR. Nuclear will shift from 2.8% in BAU to 3.0% in
TAR, and hydropower and renewable energy will shift from 13.4% in BAU to
22.2% in TAR. In Japan, energy sources are apt to shift to cleaner fossil fuel (natural
gas) or renewable energy due to the wide use of various emission abatement
technologies. In 2030, coal consumption in Japan will decrease from 4.4 EJ in the
BAU scenario to 3.5 EJ in the TAR scenario. Oil will decrease from 54.5% in BAU
to 41.4% in TAR. Natural gas will increase from 17.3% in BAU to 23.3% in TAR.
Nuclear will shift from 4.5% in BAU to 5.6% in TAR, and hydropower and
renewable energy will shift from 4.7% in BAU to 9.0% in TAR. In 2030, coal
consumption in Korea will decrease from 3.0 EJ in the BAU scenario to 1.5 EJ in the
TAR scenario. Oil will decrease from 46.9% in BAU to 34.3% in TAR. Natural gas
will increase from 15.7% in BAU to 21.4% in TAR. Nuclear will shift from 15.9% in
BAU to 21.5% in TAR. Hydropower and renewable energy will shift from 2.9% in
BAU to 10.2% in TAR.
4.2.2.2 GDP Losses
GDP losses from the BAU scenarios are given in Fig. 4.5, with 1.8, 1.5, and 2.4%
losses for China, Japan, and Korea, respectively, in the TAR scenario in 2030. The
GDP loss caused by carbon reductions is affected by total energy cost, which is
considered as a proportion of GDP. In China, despite reducing emission intensity to
65% of 2005 levels, the total carbon emission reduced from the BAU scenario in
Fig. 4.3 (continued) non-electric backstop from coal, LBD-H2 hydrogen from carbon free source,
RNEW other renewables
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X. Su and W. Zhou
respectively. Despite attempts in China to increase nuclear energy, the installed
capacity is currently relatively small; thus its share in total primary energy consumption will be 2.8%. Hydropower and other renewable energy consumption will
account for 13.4%. Primary energy consumption changes only slightly for Japan
in the BAU scenario, because of a relatively low economic growth rate. Coal, oil,
and natural gas will account for 19.0, 54.5, and 17.3%, respectively, of total primary
energy consumption by 2030. Nuclear will account for 4.5% with 1.0 EJ in 2030.
Hydropower and other renewable energy will account for approximately 4.7%. The
total primary energy consumption of Korea will increase by 17.5% from 2020 to
2030 in the BAU scenario, and coal, oil, and natural gas will account for 18.6, 46.9,
and 15.7%, respectively, in 2030. Nuclear power will account for 15.9% and
hydropower and other renewable energy approximately 2.9%.
Carbon emissions are reduced through switching carbon-intensive fossil fuels for
fuels with lower carbon intensity or carbon-free fuels. In 2030, coal consumption in
China will decrease from 58.0% in the BAU scenario to 45.2% in the TAR scenario.
Oil will increase from 23.1% in BAU to 26.0% in TAR. Natural gas will increase
from 2.8% in BAU to 3.5% in TAR. Nuclear will shift from 2.8% in BAU to 3.0% in
TAR, and hydropower and renewable energy will shift from 13.4% in BAU to
22.2% in TAR. In Japan, energy sources are apt to shift to cleaner fossil fuel (natural
gas) or renewable energy due to the wide use of various emission abatement
technologies. In 2030, coal consumption in Japan will decrease from 4.4 EJ in the
BAU scenario to 3.5 EJ in the TAR scenario. Oil will decrease from 54.5% in BAU
to 41.4% in TAR. Natural gas will increase from 17.3% in BAU to 23.3% in TAR.
Nuclear will shift from 4.5% in BAU to 5.6% in TAR, and hydropower and
renewable energy will shift from 4.7% in BAU to 9.0% in TAR. In 2030, coal
consumption in Korea will decrease from 3.0 EJ in the BAU scenario to 1.5 EJ in the
TAR scenario. Oil will decrease from 46.9% in BAU to 34.3% in TAR. Natural gas
will increase from 15.7% in BAU to 21.4% in TAR. Nuclear will shift from 15.9% in
BAU to 21.5% in TAR. Hydropower and renewable energy will shift from 2.9% in
BAU to 10.2% in TAR.
4.2.2.2 GDP Losses
GDP losses from the BAU scenarios are given in Fig. 4.5, with 1.8, 1.5, and 2.4%
losses for China, Japan, and Korea, respectively, in the TAR scenario in 2030. The
GDP loss caused by carbon reductions is affected by total energy cost, which is
considered as a proportion of GDP. In China, despite reducing emission intensity to
65% of 2005 levels, the total carbon emission reduced from the BAU scenario in
Fig. 4.3 (continued) non-electric backstop from coal, LBD-H2 hydrogen from carbon free source,
RNEW other renewables
92
X. Su and W. Zhou