5 The Dual Impact of Lockdown on Curbing COVID-19 Spread …
137
the down trotting economy the cases per day is increasing in a stipulated manner
along with the AQI is also increasing as shown through our analyses. Mother Nature
has definitely being healed through this period but with the advent of the people and
vehicles on the street it is getting polluted once again but at a much lower rate. As per
our predictions we estimate a much lower pollution rate over upcoming Diwali festive
season for mainly two reasons viz. One driving factor will be lowering economy and
it is expected that people wouldn’t hold much money to spend on the crackers rather
than trying to meet their needs. And the other would be, definitely COVID-19, as with
the current figures it is pretty evident that it will not end anywhere near November
2020 unless and until the vaccines arrive which is also pretty much difficult on the
cards. The paper also shows two-dimensional analysis of the AQI fluctuations, i.e.
one is through the time series statistical modeling and the other through the LSTM
Based modeling which is heavily used for time series prediction, and both the models
are giving similar predictions.
References
1. Roy S (2020) Spread of COVID-19 in India: a simple algebraic study. Available at SSRN
3597973
2. Kermack WO, McKendrick AG (1927) A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics.
Proc R Soc Lond Ser A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character
115(772):700–721
3. Jha V, Dinesh TA, Nair P (2020) Are we ready for controlling community transmission of
COVID 19 in India? Epidemiol Int 5(1):10–13 (E-ISSN: 2455-7048)
4. Mittal S, An exploratory data analysis of COVID-19 in India. https://www.researchgate.net/
publication/340965511_An_Exploratory_Data_Analysis_of_COVID-19_in_India
5. Arti MK, Bhatnagar K, Modeling and predictions for COVID 19 spread in India. ResearchGate.
https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.11427.81444
6. El Deeba O, Jalloulc M (2020) The dynamics of COVID-19 spread in Lebanon. arXiv, arXiv2005.
7. Ghosh P, Ghosh R, Chakraborty B (2020) COVID-19 in India: state-wise analysis and
prediction. medRxiv
8. Freeman B, Taylor G, Gharabaghi B, Thé J (2017) Forecasting air quality time series using
deep learning. J Air Waste Manage Assoc 68. https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2018.1459956
9. Roy S, Roy Bhattacharya, K (2020) Spread of COVID-19 in India: a mathematical model.
Available at SSRN 3587212
10. Sharma VK, Nigam U (2020) Modelling of Covid-19 cases in India using regression and time
series models. medRxiv
11. Cohen AJ, Ross Anderson H, Ostro B et al (2005) The global burden of disease due to outdoor
air pollution. J Toxicol Environ Health. Part A 68(13–14):1301–1307. https://doi.org/10.1080/
15287390590936166
12. Gupta S, Raghuwanshi GS, Chanda A (2020) Effect of weather on COVID-19 spread in the
US: a prediction model for India in 2020. Sci Total Environ 138860
13. Gopal R, Chandrasekar VK, Lakshmanan M (2020) Dynamical modelling and analysis of
COVID-19 in India. arXiv:2005.08255
14. Singh BP, Singh G (2020) Modeling tempo of COVID-19 pandemic in India and significance
of lockdown. medRxiv
15. Gupta S (2020) Epidemic parameters for COVID-19 in several regions of India. arXiv:2005.
08499
137
the down trotting economy the cases per day is increasing in a stipulated manner
along with the AQI is also increasing as shown through our analyses. Mother Nature
has definitely being healed through this period but with the advent of the people and
vehicles on the street it is getting polluted once again but at a much lower rate. As per
our predictions we estimate a much lower pollution rate over upcoming Diwali festive
season for mainly two reasons viz. One driving factor will be lowering economy and
it is expected that people wouldn’t hold much money to spend on the crackers rather
than trying to meet their needs. And the other would be, definitely COVID-19, as with
the current figures it is pretty evident that it will not end anywhere near November
2020 unless and until the vaccines arrive which is also pretty much difficult on the
cards. The paper also shows two-dimensional analysis of the AQI fluctuations, i.e.
one is through the time series statistical modeling and the other through the LSTM
Based modeling which is heavily used for time series prediction, and both the models
are giving similar predictions.
References
1. Roy S (2020) Spread of COVID-19 in India: a simple algebraic study. Available at SSRN
3597973
2. Kermack WO, McKendrick AG (1927) A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics.
Proc R Soc Lond Ser A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character
115(772):700–721
3. Jha V, Dinesh TA, Nair P (2020) Are we ready for controlling community transmission of
COVID 19 in India? Epidemiol Int 5(1):10–13 (E-ISSN: 2455-7048)
4. Mittal S, An exploratory data analysis of COVID-19 in India. https://www.researchgate.net/
publication/340965511_An_Exploratory_Data_Analysis_of_COVID-19_in_India
5. Arti MK, Bhatnagar K, Modeling and predictions for COVID 19 spread in India. ResearchGate.
https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.11427.81444
6. El Deeba O, Jalloulc M (2020) The dynamics of COVID-19 spread in Lebanon. arXiv, arXiv2005.
7. Ghosh P, Ghosh R, Chakraborty B (2020) COVID-19 in India: state-wise analysis and
prediction. medRxiv
8. Freeman B, Taylor G, Gharabaghi B, Thé J (2017) Forecasting air quality time series using
deep learning. J Air Waste Manage Assoc 68. https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2018.1459956
9. Roy S, Roy Bhattacharya, K (2020) Spread of COVID-19 in India: a mathematical model.
Available at SSRN 3587212
10. Sharma VK, Nigam U (2020) Modelling of Covid-19 cases in India using regression and time
series models. medRxiv
11. Cohen AJ, Ross Anderson H, Ostro B et al (2005) The global burden of disease due to outdoor
air pollution. J Toxicol Environ Health. Part A 68(13–14):1301–1307. https://doi.org/10.1080/
15287390590936166
12. Gupta S, Raghuwanshi GS, Chanda A (2020) Effect of weather on COVID-19 spread in the
US: a prediction model for India in 2020. Sci Total Environ 138860
13. Gopal R, Chandrasekar VK, Lakshmanan M (2020) Dynamical modelling and analysis of
COVID-19 in India. arXiv:2005.08255
14. Singh BP, Singh G (2020) Modeling tempo of COVID-19 pandemic in India and significance
of lockdown. medRxiv
15. Gupta S (2020) Epidemic parameters for COVID-19 in several regions of India. arXiv:2005.
08499