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S. Roy and A. Chatterjee
unlock, people are avoiding social gathering maintaining social distance preferring
own vehicle rather than the public vehicle. Also, sales of the cycle are increasing
promoting greenery and the use of pollution-free vehicles. Is the Nightmare and
pandemic situation helps to maintain ecological balance? In this paper we try to
analyse these facts keeping different factors into consideration, we will deal with
the trend and seasonality of AQI and predict using time series analysis and LSTM.
We will build a model which will give a satisfactory output of the quality of air and
how the pollutants hamper human health using mathematical models. The novelty
in the paper is the comparative study of the models under two scenarios viz., what
could have been the figure without lockdown and social distancing and with lockdown and social distancing, along with the AQI Analysis on the same said scenarios.
Simultaneously, this is correlated with the predictions for the rise of air quality level.
Keywords LSTM · COVID-19 · SIQR model · AQI
5.1 Introduction
In 1720 Plague, followed by the Cholera outbreak in 1820 and Spanish Flu in 1920;
it seems that in every 100 years a pandemic chases the existence of human race
and no one has a clue to prevent that. As the famous saying goes,—‘History repeats
itself’ and in 2020 we witnessed another pandemic with the name of Novel-Corona
Virus (COVID-19). This disease was first identified in December 2019, in the Wuhan
province of China and as the fate would have been, it has spread around the globe.
The WHO had declared this as a public health emergency on 30 January 2020 and
subsequently the first case of COVID-19 in India has been detected on that day itself.
The seriousness and complexity of this pandemic could be assessed by the figure of
infected people which is close to 1,00,000 as on date. Moreover, the outbreak of this
disease has now spread to over 200 countries.
Following the trends in other countries, the Government of India announced a
nation-wide lockdown on 24 March 2020 to prevent and slow down the spread of
COVID-19 across the length and breadth of India. The lockdown has been imposed to
buy time and get things ready to fight the pandemic, i.e. it has allowed the government
to follow the rulebook of pandemics, which is to add more hospital beds, to increase
the number of test kits, to increase the number of PPE kit for the frontline workers.
In India, conditions are very much challenging as there is a high-density population
across the country, unavailability of vaccines adding to the woes, thus, making it a
herculean task as the numbers go up continuously [1].
The lockdown which has been imposed across the nation completed two months
as on 24 May 2020. This lockdown has ‘a pro and a con’, where on the one side the
spread of the virus is getting slowed due to implementation of social distancing. But
on the other hand, there is a massive recession the economy is going to experience
in the coming months. The GDP could possibly go down below the zero benchmark
as the Reserve Bank of India has predicted. With regards to India’s employment
S. Roy and A. Chatterjee
unlock, people are avoiding social gathering maintaining social distance preferring
own vehicle rather than the public vehicle. Also, sales of the cycle are increasing
promoting greenery and the use of pollution-free vehicles. Is the Nightmare and
pandemic situation helps to maintain ecological balance? In this paper we try to
analyse these facts keeping different factors into consideration, we will deal with
the trend and seasonality of AQI and predict using time series analysis and LSTM.
We will build a model which will give a satisfactory output of the quality of air and
how the pollutants hamper human health using mathematical models. The novelty
in the paper is the comparative study of the models under two scenarios viz., what
could have been the figure without lockdown and social distancing and with lockdown and social distancing, along with the AQI Analysis on the same said scenarios.
Simultaneously, this is correlated with the predictions for the rise of air quality level.
Keywords LSTM · COVID-19 · SIQR model · AQI
5.1 Introduction
In 1720 Plague, followed by the Cholera outbreak in 1820 and Spanish Flu in 1920;
it seems that in every 100 years a pandemic chases the existence of human race
and no one has a clue to prevent that. As the famous saying goes,—‘History repeats
itself’ and in 2020 we witnessed another pandemic with the name of Novel-Corona
Virus (COVID-19). This disease was first identified in December 2019, in the Wuhan
province of China and as the fate would have been, it has spread around the globe.
The WHO had declared this as a public health emergency on 30 January 2020 and
subsequently the first case of COVID-19 in India has been detected on that day itself.
The seriousness and complexity of this pandemic could be assessed by the figure of
infected people which is close to 1,00,000 as on date. Moreover, the outbreak of this
disease has now spread to over 200 countries.
Following the trends in other countries, the Government of India announced a
nation-wide lockdown on 24 March 2020 to prevent and slow down the spread of
COVID-19 across the length and breadth of India. The lockdown has been imposed to
buy time and get things ready to fight the pandemic, i.e. it has allowed the government
to follow the rulebook of pandemics, which is to add more hospital beds, to increase
the number of test kits, to increase the number of PPE kit for the frontline workers.
In India, conditions are very much challenging as there is a high-density population
across the country, unavailability of vaccines adding to the woes, thus, making it a
herculean task as the numbers go up continuously [1].
The lockdown which has been imposed across the nation completed two months
as on 24 May 2020. This lockdown has ‘a pro and a con’, where on the one side the
spread of the virus is getting slowed due to implementation of social distancing. But
on the other hand, there is a massive recession the economy is going to experience
in the coming months. The GDP could possibly go down below the zero benchmark
as the Reserve Bank of India has predicted. With regards to India’s employment