322
F. E. K. Sato and T. Nakata
The main conclusions of this approach are listed below.
• The total sales of vehicles in Japan seem to slow down in the following years
because of the decreasing Japanese population. However, sales of electric vehicles
will increase to 3.72 million units/year in 2030 and remain almost constant until
2050.
• EVB demand is going to increase rapidly in the following years; however, it is
expected to reach maturity near 2030 and meet the peak in 2040.
• Exportation of used EV has a substantial impact on the LiB processing/recycling
market. EVB for recycling and reusing is expected to be low compared to the
quantity of battery to be supplied in the market in the following years.
• The amount of scrapped EVB will increase 45 times from 2020 to 2050. Moreover, a complete closed-loop of them can be expected around 2050 only if the
exportation of used electric vehicles is hardly diminished.
• Processing cost for EVB was calculated as 4.4 thousand million yens in 2030,
17.8 thousand million yens in 2040, and 28.8 thousand million yens in 2050.
• The development of LIB recycling technologies should be center, in the short
term, in developing low cost and efficient technologies.
• Shorten the use life of BEV will increase the returning flow of material for
recycling; however, the increment of material needed for the production of new
vehicles will be higher.
Finally, what needs to be emphasized is that the proposed model can be adapted to
other countries but also for different products. Results presented in this study can also
guide automakers to propose feasible business models for the reusing/recycling of
LiB, but also for dismantles and material recycling companies to adjust its installation
for the coming changes in the vehicle market.
References
Argonne National Laboratory (2012) Material and energy flows in the materials production,
assembly, and end of life stages of the automotive lithium ion battery life cycle. https://greet.
es.anl.gov/publication-lib-lca
Automobile Inspection & Registration Information Association (2019). Tendency of the vehicles
ownership in our country. https://www.airia.or.jp/publish/statistics/trend.html
Baldé CP, Forti V. Gray V, Kuehr R, Stegmann P (2017) The global e-waste monitor—2017, United
Nations University (UNU), International Telecommunication Union (ITU) & International Solid
Waste Association (ISWA), Bonn/Geneva/Vienna
Bolun Xu, Alexandre Oudalov, Andreas Ulbig, Goran Andersson, Kirschen Daniel S (2018)
Modeling of lithium-ion battery degradation for cell life assessment. IEEE Trans Smart Grid
9(2):1131–1140
Dargay J, Gately D (1999) Income effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide 1960–2015.
Transp Res Part A 33:101–138
Diekmann J, Grützke M, Loellhoeffel T, Petermann M, Rothermel S, Winter M, Nowak S, Kwade
A (2018). Potential dangers during the handling of lithium-ion batteries. In: Kwade A, Diekmann
F. E. K. Sato and T. Nakata
The main conclusions of this approach are listed below.
• The total sales of vehicles in Japan seem to slow down in the following years
because of the decreasing Japanese population. However, sales of electric vehicles
will increase to 3.72 million units/year in 2030 and remain almost constant until
2050.
• EVB demand is going to increase rapidly in the following years; however, it is
expected to reach maturity near 2030 and meet the peak in 2040.
• Exportation of used EV has a substantial impact on the LiB processing/recycling
market. EVB for recycling and reusing is expected to be low compared to the
quantity of battery to be supplied in the market in the following years.
• The amount of scrapped EVB will increase 45 times from 2020 to 2050. Moreover, a complete closed-loop of them can be expected around 2050 only if the
exportation of used electric vehicles is hardly diminished.
• Processing cost for EVB was calculated as 4.4 thousand million yens in 2030,
17.8 thousand million yens in 2040, and 28.8 thousand million yens in 2050.
• The development of LIB recycling technologies should be center, in the short
term, in developing low cost and efficient technologies.
• Shorten the use life of BEV will increase the returning flow of material for
recycling; however, the increment of material needed for the production of new
vehicles will be higher.
Finally, what needs to be emphasized is that the proposed model can be adapted to
other countries but also for different products. Results presented in this study can also
guide automakers to propose feasible business models for the reusing/recycling of
LiB, but also for dismantles and material recycling companies to adjust its installation
for the coming changes in the vehicle market.
References
Argonne National Laboratory (2012) Material and energy flows in the materials production,
assembly, and end of life stages of the automotive lithium ion battery life cycle. https://greet.
es.anl.gov/publication-lib-lca
Automobile Inspection & Registration Information Association (2019). Tendency of the vehicles
ownership in our country. https://www.airia.or.jp/publish/statistics/trend.html
Baldé CP, Forti V. Gray V, Kuehr R, Stegmann P (2017) The global e-waste monitor—2017, United
Nations University (UNU), International Telecommunication Union (ITU) & International Solid
Waste Association (ISWA), Bonn/Geneva/Vienna
Bolun Xu, Alexandre Oudalov, Andreas Ulbig, Goran Andersson, Kirschen Daniel S (2018)
Modeling of lithium-ion battery degradation for cell life assessment. IEEE Trans Smart Grid
9(2):1131–1140
Dargay J, Gately D (1999) Income effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide 1960–2015.
Transp Res Part A 33:101–138
Diekmann J, Grützke M, Loellhoeffel T, Petermann M, Rothermel S, Winter M, Nowak S, Kwade
A (2018). Potential dangers during the handling of lithium-ion batteries. In: Kwade A, Diekmann