complications to the spatiotemporal behavior of climatic variables in India, which
will threaten the sustenance of the huge populations of the country.
Under this global climate change scenario, a number of studies have investigated
the changing trends of climatic parameters in India. Some scholars have analyzed the
past weather data recorded by meteorological stations to detect trends of climatic
variables on a local, regional, or national scale. On the other hand, in a few studies
projection of future climate has been based on present trends of climatic variables.
So, the climate change scenario of India can be explored from two perspectives:
observed trend of climate change and projected trend of climate change.
Observed Trend of Climate Change in India
Kothawale and Rupa Kumar (2005) have examined monthly maximum and minimum temperature data of 121 stations of the Indian Meteorological Department
(IMD) for the time periods of 1901–2003 to identify seasonal and annual trends in
temperature change in the country as a whole and in seven homogeneous regions,
namely, Western Himalaya, Northwest, North Central, Northeast, West Coast, and
Interior Peninsula. A parametric statistical technique, namely, linear regression
analysis, was applied to detect trends of temperature change from the period
1901–2003 and make comparisons of the trends of two other time periods,
1901–2003 and 1971–2003. Following are some key findings of this study.
1. During 1901–2003, the annual mean temperature of India has increased at the rate
of 0.05
C/10 years, but in the relatively short 1971–2003 time period this trend
has accelerated to the rate of 0.22
C/10 years. The rising trend of annual
maximum temperature (0.07
C/10 years) is significantly higher than that of the
annual minimum temperature (0.02
C/10 years) during 1901–2003, although
during 1971–2003 the annual minimum temperature (0.21
C/10 years) increased
at a slightly greater rate than annual maximum temperature (0.20
C/10 years).
2. Annual maximum temperature significantly increased over India in all the four
seasons during 1901–2003, but in this period a significant warming trend of mean
temperature is observed only in winter and in post monsoon seasons. During
1971–2003 a statistically significant increasing trend of annual maximum temperature is observed in winter and post monsoon seasons, whereas in winter and
monsoon seasons a rising trend of annual minimum temperature becomes
significant.
3. During 1901–2003 all regions of India experienced rising trends in annual mean
and annual maximum temperature, but in the northwestern region a decreasing
trend of annual minimum temperature is noticed. However, during 1971–2003 no
decreasing trend of annual mean or annual maximum or annual minimum temperature is observed anywhere in India.
Attri and Tyagi (2010) have explored the climate change scenario of India by
analyzing climatic data of more than 100 years (1901–2009), recorded in the
128
S. Mukhopadhyay and A. K. Mandal
will threaten the sustenance of the huge populations of the country.
Under this global climate change scenario, a number of studies have investigated
the changing trends of climatic parameters in India. Some scholars have analyzed the
past weather data recorded by meteorological stations to detect trends of climatic
variables on a local, regional, or national scale. On the other hand, in a few studies
projection of future climate has been based on present trends of climatic variables.
So, the climate change scenario of India can be explored from two perspectives:
observed trend of climate change and projected trend of climate change.
Observed Trend of Climate Change in India
Kothawale and Rupa Kumar (2005) have examined monthly maximum and minimum temperature data of 121 stations of the Indian Meteorological Department
(IMD) for the time periods of 1901–2003 to identify seasonal and annual trends in
temperature change in the country as a whole and in seven homogeneous regions,
namely, Western Himalaya, Northwest, North Central, Northeast, West Coast, and
Interior Peninsula. A parametric statistical technique, namely, linear regression
analysis, was applied to detect trends of temperature change from the period
1901–2003 and make comparisons of the trends of two other time periods,
1901–2003 and 1971–2003. Following are some key findings of this study.
1. During 1901–2003, the annual mean temperature of India has increased at the rate
of 0.05
C/10 years, but in the relatively short 1971–2003 time period this trend
has accelerated to the rate of 0.22
C/10 years. The rising trend of annual
maximum temperature (0.07
C/10 years) is significantly higher than that of the
annual minimum temperature (0.02
C/10 years) during 1901–2003, although
during 1971–2003 the annual minimum temperature (0.21
C/10 years) increased
at a slightly greater rate than annual maximum temperature (0.20
C/10 years).
2. Annual maximum temperature significantly increased over India in all the four
seasons during 1901–2003, but in this period a significant warming trend of mean
temperature is observed only in winter and in post monsoon seasons. During
1971–2003 a statistically significant increasing trend of annual maximum temperature is observed in winter and post monsoon seasons, whereas in winter and
monsoon seasons a rising trend of annual minimum temperature becomes
significant.
3. During 1901–2003 all regions of India experienced rising trends in annual mean
and annual maximum temperature, but in the northwestern region a decreasing
trend of annual minimum temperature is noticed. However, during 1971–2003 no
decreasing trend of annual mean or annual maximum or annual minimum temperature is observed anywhere in India.
Attri and Tyagi (2010) have explored the climate change scenario of India by
analyzing climatic data of more than 100 years (1901–2009), recorded in the
128
S. Mukhopadhyay and A. K. Mandal