3.2 The Xe-Pian Dam Disaster
31
Fig. 3.4 Whitman’s tolerance thresholds (Whitman 1984). In the ‘80s it was assumed a “cost
of casualty” would be 1M USD as seen by comparing the top scale with the bottom scale. See
Sect. 13.1.2 for a discussion on this subject
even 10
−6 (1/1,000,000) (C. Oboni and F. Oboni 2012) the jump up to 1/500 is
frighteningly significant. With p f = 0.002 and damages in the tens of M$ (vertical line in Fig. 3.4) the newly developed dams would clearly be bordering societal
acceptability even without considering harm to people. Chap. 13 discusses in detail
risk tolerance thresholds.
We do not know any dam-specific design peculiarities—e.g., what the return
flood was, design criteria, etc.—so we will avoid any speculation. However, what
seems obvious at this time is that meteorological alert system would have helped
and maintaining access to the operation would have a positive impact. The question
is: will we see a significant policy change in Lao PDR in the aftermath of this
catastrophe? That seem to be the case in most countries hit by dire events of this
magnitude.
31
Fig. 3.4 Whitman’s tolerance thresholds (Whitman 1984). In the ‘80s it was assumed a “cost
of casualty” would be 1M USD as seen by comparing the top scale with the bottom scale. See
Sect. 13.1.2 for a discussion on this subject
even 10
−6 (1/1,000,000) (C. Oboni and F. Oboni 2012) the jump up to 1/500 is
frighteningly significant. With p f = 0.002 and damages in the tens of M$ (vertical line in Fig. 3.4) the newly developed dams would clearly be bordering societal
acceptability even without considering harm to people. Chap. 13 discusses in detail
risk tolerance thresholds.
We do not know any dam-specific design peculiarities—e.g., what the return
flood was, design criteria, etc.—so we will avoid any speculation. However, what
seems obvious at this time is that meteorological alert system would have helped
and maintaining access to the operation would have a positive impact. The question
is: will we see a significant policy change in Lao PDR in the aftermath of this
catastrophe? That seem to be the case in most countries hit by dire events of this
magnitude.