244
15 Risk-Informed Decision Making
Fig. 15.6 SLM versus ORE2_Tailings FoS versus Annual probability of failure for ESA
Similar conclusion can be derived from USA rapid drawdown and pseudostatic
conditions.
Now, let’s go back and look at the areas where further analysis is required (pipes,
traffic, etc.).
Internal interdependencies
• We stated earlier (Sect. 15.1.3) there are no penstocks systems in the portfolio’s
dams, with the exception of Dam 4 and that is already included in the deplorable
category of that dam.
• There are tailings pipelines at the crest of Dams 1A, 1B (insensitive to pipe breach),
and 3.
• Dam 3 could be significantly eroded if the crest pipeline were to breach and remain
unobserved for more than 12 h (Sect. 15.5.3).
• Dam 4 is in the process of deactivation, thus no active spigotting.
• There are vehicular and subcontractor’s traffic at the crest of all dams.
For the sake of the example, let’s look at Dam 3 pipeline breach and traffic case.
As shown in Fig. 8.8, a breach in a crest pipeline can lead, by internal interdependencies, to the collapse of the dam. This requires a chain of events, for example,
as follows:
• The pipeline breaches due to: (a) a vehicle collision, (b) a joint failure, (c) corrosion of the pipe. As each one of these three failure modes can be considered
15 Risk-Informed Decision Making
Fig. 15.6 SLM versus ORE2_Tailings FoS versus Annual probability of failure for ESA
Similar conclusion can be derived from USA rapid drawdown and pseudostatic
conditions.
Now, let’s go back and look at the areas where further analysis is required (pipes,
traffic, etc.).
Internal interdependencies
• We stated earlier (Sect. 15.1.3) there are no penstocks systems in the portfolio’s
dams, with the exception of Dam 4 and that is already included in the deplorable
category of that dam.
• There are tailings pipelines at the crest of Dams 1A, 1B (insensitive to pipe breach),
and 3.
• Dam 3 could be significantly eroded if the crest pipeline were to breach and remain
unobserved for more than 12 h (Sect. 15.5.3).
• Dam 4 is in the process of deactivation, thus no active spigotting.
• There are vehicular and subcontractor’s traffic at the crest of all dams.
For the sake of the example, let’s look at Dam 3 pipeline breach and traffic case.
As shown in Fig. 8.8, a breach in a crest pipeline can lead, by internal interdependencies, to the collapse of the dam. This requires a chain of events, for example,
as follows:
• The pipeline breaches due to: (a) a vehicle collision, (b) a joint failure, (c) corrosion of the pipe. As each one of these three failure modes can be considered