Chapter 15
Risk-Informed Decision Making
This chapter, Risk-Informed Decision Making, presents a set of case histories used
as deployment examples. This chapter is devoted to the relative quantitative risk
assessment of a portfolio of tailings dams. It aims to establish relative probabilities
and consequences, allowing comparisons and prioritization of the portfolio’s risks
but makes no attempt to deliver absolute probabilities for one specific object. This
chapter shows how the results of a modern QRA lead to the design of a mitigative
roadmap which covers corporate, societal, and legal interests.
Now that we have identified an ISO-31000-compliant, convergent, scalable, drillable,
updatable risk management system (Chap. 14) based on a clearly defined glossary
(Sect. 5.2), it is time to show examples of risk-informed decision making (RIDM)
applied, for example, to a portfolio of dams.
In real life this type of assessment obeys a number of rules:
• It does not include checking the extant files for either geomechanical analyses/parameters selection or the absence of errors and omissions. However, it does
include checking to see whether the necessary data were reportedly collected and
worked through the design in a coherent way.
• It does not replace any work performed by the project engineers, engineers of
record, inspectors, monitoring experts and other professionals involved with the
structure.
– It interprets information delivered in the geostructure’s files using a variety of
reproducible and transparent procedures described in earlier chapters (Chaps. 10
and 11) with the objective of establishing relative probabilities, allowing comparisons and prioritization of risks.
– It examines equipment on the geostructures’ crown and the reservoir’s level
control (if applicable) to include their influence on the geostructure’s probability
of failure.
– It does not constitute an attempt to deliver absolute probabilities for one specific
object.
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
F. Oboni and C. Oboni, Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19447-5_15
219
Risk-Informed Decision Making
This chapter, Risk-Informed Decision Making, presents a set of case histories used
as deployment examples. This chapter is devoted to the relative quantitative risk
assessment of a portfolio of tailings dams. It aims to establish relative probabilities
and consequences, allowing comparisons and prioritization of the portfolio’s risks
but makes no attempt to deliver absolute probabilities for one specific object. This
chapter shows how the results of a modern QRA lead to the design of a mitigative
roadmap which covers corporate, societal, and legal interests.
Now that we have identified an ISO-31000-compliant, convergent, scalable, drillable,
updatable risk management system (Chap. 14) based on a clearly defined glossary
(Sect. 5.2), it is time to show examples of risk-informed decision making (RIDM)
applied, for example, to a portfolio of dams.
In real life this type of assessment obeys a number of rules:
• It does not include checking the extant files for either geomechanical analyses/parameters selection or the absence of errors and omissions. However, it does
include checking to see whether the necessary data were reportedly collected and
worked through the design in a coherent way.
• It does not replace any work performed by the project engineers, engineers of
record, inspectors, monitoring experts and other professionals involved with the
structure.
– It interprets information delivered in the geostructure’s files using a variety of
reproducible and transparent procedures described in earlier chapters (Chaps. 10
and 11) with the objective of establishing relative probabilities, allowing comparisons and prioritization of risks.
– It examines equipment on the geostructures’ crown and the reservoir’s level
control (if applicable) to include their influence on the geostructure’s probability
of failure.
– It does not constitute an attempt to deliver absolute probabilities for one specific
object.
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
F. Oboni and C. Oboni, Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19447-5_15
219