148
10 Defining Probabilities of Events
Independent Different Elements
Let’s now look at different, independent dams. We recently developed a tailings
dam system risk assessment for a client owning/operating 15 dams. The results are
displayed in Fig. 10.6.
Each yellow vertical bar corresponds to a dam in the system. The bottom of the bar
corresponds to the optimistic estimate of the probability, while the top corresponds to
the pessimistic one, based on extant uncertainties. An explanation on how to derive
these values is given in Chap. 11. As can be seen, the quality of the dams in the
portfolio is extremely variable. The horizontal grey lines give the historic world-wide
tailings dam performance (Table 4.1, used as bench-mark). The two green rectangular
Fig. 10.6 Relative probabilities of failure and historic benchmark for a portfolio of 15 dams
10 Defining Probabilities of Events
Independent Different Elements
Let’s now look at different, independent dams. We recently developed a tailings
dam system risk assessment for a client owning/operating 15 dams. The results are
displayed in Fig. 10.6.
Each yellow vertical bar corresponds to a dam in the system. The bottom of the bar
corresponds to the optimistic estimate of the probability, while the top corresponds to
the pessimistic one, based on extant uncertainties. An explanation on how to derive
these values is given in Chap. 11. As can be seen, the quality of the dams in the
portfolio is extremely variable. The horizontal grey lines give the historic world-wide
tailings dam performance (Table 4.1, used as bench-mark). The two green rectangular
Fig. 10.6 Relative probabilities of failure and historic benchmark for a portfolio of 15 dams