9.2 Modern Methods
131
The updating then makes it possible to re-frame probabilities present in the quantitative risk register and to re-evaluate the risks.
The various examples above show the benefits found in linking multi-temporal
objective space observation with a dynamic convergent QRA platform in mining
projects and operations. The two-pronged approach enables us to “measure” and
make sense of a complex problem. It allows us to:
• transparently compare alternatives;
• discuss rationally and openly the survival conditions;
• evaluate the premature failure of a structure.
Connecting a dynamic QRA platform with a high-performance data gathering
technique reduces costs, avoids blunders, and constitutes a healthy management
practice, especially for long-term projects requiring short- or long-term monitoring,
including, of course, site restorations.
Principles for Linking Space or Drone Observation to Risk Assessments
The purpose of this section is not to deliver the details of the how-to connect space
or drone observation to probabilistic analyses of dams and dykes, for obvious scope
limitations. Instead, it is to explain the principle and the angle of attack leading to
prepare an automated or semi-automated probability updating system, i.e., how to
generate the link between space or drone observation and QRAs mentioned earlier.
Table 9.3 explains how various space or drone observation themes can be
approached to deliver useful data for an a priori risk assessment. That means using a
historic space or drone observation database on a site that is being assessed for risks
the first time.
Let’s now examine which data can be gathered on a regular basis over cycles of
observation and the principles by which they can be used in updating probabilities and
consequences of a quantitative risk assessment. As an example, consider a portfolio
of dams or dykes. We will first review freeboard, wet spots and dam deformations,
and finally symptoms-driven methodologies. We will then discuss the principles of
automated re-evaluation procedures.
• It is generally agreed that the amount of freeboard of a dam or levee should be
increased to protect areas with high value and high loss potential. A review of
different freeboard requirements in various countries provides some examples of
commonly adopted values (MacArthur and MacArthur 1991). Furthermore, the
beach length (distance between the crest of the dam and the water in the tailings
pond) reduction is a well know indicator of poor potential stability conditions in
the dam. Both freeboard and beach length can be easily measured by means of
satellite observation and have an impact on the probability of failure.
• The same occurs with wet spots on the downstream face of a dam, at the toe.
Dam deformations (vertical and horizontal) can be compared with a known
height/deformation ratio to determine the state of the structure.
• Finally, symptom-driven methodologies can be applied. Characteristics observable
by satellite or drone which reportedly alter the probability of failure of a dyke or
a dam are, for example:
131
The updating then makes it possible to re-frame probabilities present in the quantitative risk register and to re-evaluate the risks.
The various examples above show the benefits found in linking multi-temporal
objective space observation with a dynamic convergent QRA platform in mining
projects and operations. The two-pronged approach enables us to “measure” and
make sense of a complex problem. It allows us to:
• transparently compare alternatives;
• discuss rationally and openly the survival conditions;
• evaluate the premature failure of a structure.
Connecting a dynamic QRA platform with a high-performance data gathering
technique reduces costs, avoids blunders, and constitutes a healthy management
practice, especially for long-term projects requiring short- or long-term monitoring,
including, of course, site restorations.
Principles for Linking Space or Drone Observation to Risk Assessments
The purpose of this section is not to deliver the details of the how-to connect space
or drone observation to probabilistic analyses of dams and dykes, for obvious scope
limitations. Instead, it is to explain the principle and the angle of attack leading to
prepare an automated or semi-automated probability updating system, i.e., how to
generate the link between space or drone observation and QRAs mentioned earlier.
Table 9.3 explains how various space or drone observation themes can be
approached to deliver useful data for an a priori risk assessment. That means using a
historic space or drone observation database on a site that is being assessed for risks
the first time.
Let’s now examine which data can be gathered on a regular basis over cycles of
observation and the principles by which they can be used in updating probabilities and
consequences of a quantitative risk assessment. As an example, consider a portfolio
of dams or dykes. We will first review freeboard, wet spots and dam deformations,
and finally symptoms-driven methodologies. We will then discuss the principles of
automated re-evaluation procedures.
• It is generally agreed that the amount of freeboard of a dam or levee should be
increased to protect areas with high value and high loss potential. A review of
different freeboard requirements in various countries provides some examples of
commonly adopted values (MacArthur and MacArthur 1991). Furthermore, the
beach length (distance between the crest of the dam and the water in the tailings
pond) reduction is a well know indicator of poor potential stability conditions in
the dam. Both freeboard and beach length can be easily measured by means of
satellite observation and have an impact on the probability of failure.
• The same occurs with wet spots on the downstream face of a dam, at the toe.
Dam deformations (vertical and horizontal) can be compared with a known
height/deformation ratio to determine the state of the structure.
• Finally, symptom-driven methodologies can be applied. Characteristics observable
by satellite or drone which reportedly alter the probability of failure of a dyke or
a dam are, for example: