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9 Hazard Identification
are included in the probability of failure of each element as described later in this
book, but do not constitute an hazard as defined above. The same is true for maintenance and monitoring. However, deviations from the intended level of care in
maintenance and monitoring are considered as hazards.
Table 9.1 defines—as a specific example from a real-life study, not as a general
list—a series of threats-from families and vectors potentially lurking on the system’s
elements, i.e., potentially generating hazard scenarios.
Hazard scenarios can be “elemental” or developed in long chains of “compounded/domino failures” (inter-dependencies) leading to outcomes (consequences)
of an impact larger than the initiating event. In order to enable proper consideration
in a rational and transparent analysis, hazard scenarios must be:
• identified and classified in a proper Hazard/Risk register. The detail of the register
will be compatible with the level of information available at the time of the study;
• characterized by at least (relative) likelihood and magnitude (intensity);
• evaluated in terms of potential targets, vulnerabilities and finally, consequences;
Table 9.1 Specific example from a real-life study
Threat from
Code
Vectors
Geosphere (including climate change) G1
Earthquake
G2
High wind (windstorm and hurricane)
G3
Lightning
G4
Snowstorms (snowmelts is included in
G6)
G5
Extreme cold, freezing rain
G6
Flooding, extreme rains/extreme drought
Electrical
E1
System of communication, IT
E2
Power electric
E3
Power hydrocarbons
Fixed and moving equipment
F1
Equipment failure from natural cause
such as “wear”
F2
Fire, explosion due to any hazard BUT
terrorism, pandemic, outages and natural
disasters
Personnel
P1
Human error
P2
Succession planning of key personnel
P3
Pandemic
P4
Employee dishonesty
Public and public agents
A1
Riots
A2
Arson
A3
Cyber attacks
9 Hazard Identification
are included in the probability of failure of each element as described later in this
book, but do not constitute an hazard as defined above. The same is true for maintenance and monitoring. However, deviations from the intended level of care in
maintenance and monitoring are considered as hazards.
Table 9.1 defines—as a specific example from a real-life study, not as a general
list—a series of threats-from families and vectors potentially lurking on the system’s
elements, i.e., potentially generating hazard scenarios.
Hazard scenarios can be “elemental” or developed in long chains of “compounded/domino failures” (inter-dependencies) leading to outcomes (consequences)
of an impact larger than the initiating event. In order to enable proper consideration
in a rational and transparent analysis, hazard scenarios must be:
• identified and classified in a proper Hazard/Risk register. The detail of the register
will be compatible with the level of information available at the time of the study;
• characterized by at least (relative) likelihood and magnitude (intensity);
• evaluated in terms of potential targets, vulnerabilities and finally, consequences;
Table 9.1 Specific example from a real-life study
Threat from
Code
Vectors
Geosphere (including climate change) G1
Earthquake
G2
High wind (windstorm and hurricane)
G3
Lightning
G4
Snowstorms (snowmelts is included in
G6)
G5
Extreme cold, freezing rain
G6
Flooding, extreme rains/extreme drought
Electrical
E1
System of communication, IT
E2
Power electric
E3
Power hydrocarbons
Fixed and moving equipment
F1
Equipment failure from natural cause
such as “wear”
F2
Fire, explosion due to any hazard BUT
terrorism, pandemic, outages and natural
disasters
Personnel
P1
Human error
P2
Succession planning of key personnel
P3
Pandemic
P4
Employee dishonesty
Public and public agents
A1
Riots
A2
Arson
A3
Cyber attacks