Chapter 54
Quantification of Uncertainty
in Lagrangian Dispersion Modelling,
Using ECMWF’s New ERA5 Ensemble
Andy Delcloo and Pieter De Meutter
Abstract FLEXPART is a Lagrangian particle dispersion transport model which is
originally designed for calculating the long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air
pollutants from point sources. Through the years, these type of models have proven
to be a very useful tool in an operational context for the protection of the population
in case of accidents in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime, FLEXPART has
evolved into a more comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modelling and
analysis, and it can be used for a wide range of applications. The model can be
used in a forward or backward mode, making it possible to trace back the source
pollution contribution of a certain pollutant. To perform the FLEXPART dispersion
simulations under consideration, we will use meteorological data from the European
Centre for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF), more specifically the new ERA5
10-member climate data reanalysis at a 63 km resolution. We will explore how good
we can access the model uncertainty in an objective way by taking advantage of
ensemble weather forecasts.
54.1 Introduction
The International Monitoring System (IMS) is being setup to verify compliance with
the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Part of the IMS will consist of forty
stations that can measure certain airborne radioactive xenon isotopes, which are
created after a nuclear explosion. However, radioactive xenon isotopes are regularly
detected by IMS stations and it has been shown that these originate from civilian
sources such as medical isotope production facilities and nuclear power plants [2].
This xenon background could mask the signatures of a nuclear explosion.
A. Delcloo (B) · P. De Meutter
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
e-mail: Andy.Delcloo@meteo.be
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
P. De Meutter
SCK CEN, Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
C. Mensink et al. (eds.), Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI,
Springer Proceedings in Complexity,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_54
343
Quantification of Uncertainty
in Lagrangian Dispersion Modelling,
Using ECMWF’s New ERA5 Ensemble
Andy Delcloo and Pieter De Meutter
Abstract FLEXPART is a Lagrangian particle dispersion transport model which is
originally designed for calculating the long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air
pollutants from point sources. Through the years, these type of models have proven
to be a very useful tool in an operational context for the protection of the population
in case of accidents in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime, FLEXPART has
evolved into a more comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modelling and
analysis, and it can be used for a wide range of applications. The model can be
used in a forward or backward mode, making it possible to trace back the source
pollution contribution of a certain pollutant. To perform the FLEXPART dispersion
simulations under consideration, we will use meteorological data from the European
Centre for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF), more specifically the new ERA5
10-member climate data reanalysis at a 63 km resolution. We will explore how good
we can access the model uncertainty in an objective way by taking advantage of
ensemble weather forecasts.
54.1 Introduction
The International Monitoring System (IMS) is being setup to verify compliance with
the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Part of the IMS will consist of forty
stations that can measure certain airborne radioactive xenon isotopes, which are
created after a nuclear explosion. However, radioactive xenon isotopes are regularly
detected by IMS stations and it has been shown that these originate from civilian
sources such as medical isotope production facilities and nuclear power plants [2].
This xenon background could mask the signatures of a nuclear explosion.
A. Delcloo (B) · P. De Meutter
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
e-mail: Andy.Delcloo@meteo.be
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
P. De Meutter
SCK CEN, Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
C. Mensink et al. (eds.), Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI,
Springer Proceedings in Complexity,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_54
343