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M. T. Odman et al.
36.1 Introduction
Air quality forecasts provide useful information for avoiding exposure to high levels
of pollutants. However, additional information is needed about the contribution of
specific emission sources to develop mitigation strategies and avoid repeated pollution episodes. Dynamic air quality management is a paradigm where, depending on
the episode, different sources are targeted with varying levels of control. Prescribed
burning is a major source of air pollution in Southeastern USA. According to the 2014
emissions inventory, ¼ of all primary PM 2.5 emissions in Southeastern USA originate from the treatment of approximately 2 million hectares of land by prescribed fire
each year. The use of prescribed burning for forest and crop health has economical
and ecosystem-related benefits; however, these benefits must be weighed and managed with respect to the potential health and welfare impacts. Prescribed burning is
also very suitable source for dynamic management. Unlike most other sources that
cannot be curtailed without significant economic, social and political consequences,
prescribed burns can be easily deferred to another day.
There is an increasing need to forecast prescribed burn activity and its impact on
air quality and human health in Southeastern USA, and to disseminate these forecasts, along with other useful burn information, through a convenient online tool for
analysis and management purposes. WebGIS-based online tools have already been
developed for emissions inventory spatial analysis [1], marine pollution monitoring
and forecasting [2], and urban air quality monitoring data visualization [3]. NOAA
operates a website (https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/spb/aq/eidea) that brings
together satellite-based fire detection, cloud, smoke and aerosol optical thickness
data with ground-level PM 2.5 observations for research and application communities
to explore the impacts of fires. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
is also developing an online tool for identifying populations vulnerable to wildfire
smoke hazards [4]. Until now, a system that combines fire and air quality observations
with forecasts, focusing specifically on prescribed fires, did not exist.
Here, HiRes-X is introduced as the first modeling system and online interactive
tool (https://sipc.ce.gatech.edu/SIPFIS/map/) for forecasting and analysis of prescribed burn impacts in Southeastern USA. First, the weather-based burn activity
forecasting capability, the fire emission prediction component, and the air quality and burn impact prediction methods are reviewed. Then, efforts to expand and
extend the system are discussed. Expansion efforts include broader coverage over
the Southeastern USA and using fire-related data from a wide range of earth observations. Extensions include providing the forecasts to local and state public health
agencies and to CDC on a real-time basis. Finally, examples from recent applications
of HiRes-X to the prediction of the prescribed fire impacts are presented.
M. T. Odman et al.
36.1 Introduction
Air quality forecasts provide useful information for avoiding exposure to high levels
of pollutants. However, additional information is needed about the contribution of
specific emission sources to develop mitigation strategies and avoid repeated pollution episodes. Dynamic air quality management is a paradigm where, depending on
the episode, different sources are targeted with varying levels of control. Prescribed
burning is a major source of air pollution in Southeastern USA. According to the 2014
emissions inventory, ¼ of all primary PM 2.5 emissions in Southeastern USA originate from the treatment of approximately 2 million hectares of land by prescribed fire
each year. The use of prescribed burning for forest and crop health has economical
and ecosystem-related benefits; however, these benefits must be weighed and managed with respect to the potential health and welfare impacts. Prescribed burning is
also very suitable source for dynamic management. Unlike most other sources that
cannot be curtailed without significant economic, social and political consequences,
prescribed burns can be easily deferred to another day.
There is an increasing need to forecast prescribed burn activity and its impact on
air quality and human health in Southeastern USA, and to disseminate these forecasts, along with other useful burn information, through a convenient online tool for
analysis and management purposes. WebGIS-based online tools have already been
developed for emissions inventory spatial analysis [1], marine pollution monitoring
and forecasting [2], and urban air quality monitoring data visualization [3]. NOAA
operates a website (https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/spb/aq/eidea) that brings
together satellite-based fire detection, cloud, smoke and aerosol optical thickness
data with ground-level PM 2.5 observations for research and application communities
to explore the impacts of fires. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
is also developing an online tool for identifying populations vulnerable to wildfire
smoke hazards [4]. Until now, a system that combines fire and air quality observations
with forecasts, focusing specifically on prescribed fires, did not exist.
Here, HiRes-X is introduced as the first modeling system and online interactive
tool (https://sipc.ce.gatech.edu/SIPFIS/map/) for forecasting and analysis of prescribed burn impacts in Southeastern USA. First, the weather-based burn activity
forecasting capability, the fire emission prediction component, and the air quality and burn impact prediction methods are reviewed. Then, efforts to expand and
extend the system are discussed. Expansion efforts include broader coverage over
the Southeastern USA and using fire-related data from a wide range of earth observations. Extensions include providing the forecasts to local and state public health
agencies and to CDC on a real-time basis. Finally, examples from recent applications
of HiRes-X to the prediction of the prescribed fire impacts are presented.