Chapter 17
Using Higher Order Sensitivity
Approaches to Assess Aircraft Emissions
Impacts on O 3 and PM 2.5
Calvin Arter and Sarav Arunachalam
Abstract This study utilized an advanced sensitivity analysis, the higher order
Decoupled Direct Method (HDDM-3D) as implemented in the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) to quantify the impacts of aviation emissions
during the landing and takeoff (LTO) cycle at nine individual airports; five located
in regions of attainment of O 3 and PM 2.5 NAAQS: Boston Logan (BOS), Kansas
City (MCI), Raleigh Durham (RDU), Seattle-Tacoma (SEA), and Tucson (TUS);
and four located in regions of nonattainment: Chicago O’Hare (ORD), HartsfieldJackson Atlanta (ATL), John F. Kennedy (JFK), and Los Angeles (LAX). Fuel burn
changes needed at the four nonattainment airports ranged from −14.9 (357,185 less
tons) to −3.3 (55,715 less tons) times less fuel burned and from 1.6 (29,826 more
tons) to 3.1 (79,584 more tons) times more fuel burned to reduce ambient PM 2.5
by 0.1 µg/m
3 and O 3 by 1 ppb, respectively. Fuel burn changes needed at the five
attainment airports ranged from 20.4 (39,516 more tons) to 48.0 (397,180 more tons)
times more fuel burned and from −449.0 (−477,734 less tons) to −24.0 (46,648 less
tons) times less fuel burned to increase ambient PM 2.5 by 0.1 µg/m
3 and O 3 by
1 ppb, respectively. Using these estimates for a range of airports, we demonstrate
an illustration of how HDDM-based sensitivity calculations can be used to develop
source specific impacts on potential attainment designations for a region.
17.1 Introduction
The aviation sector has seen substantial growth in the past decade with air carriers
flying 631 million passenger miles in the year 2015, resulting in an increase of around
C. Arter (B)
Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel
Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
e-mail: arterca@email.unc.edu
C. Arter · S. Arunachalam
Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
e-mail: sarav@email.unc.edu
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
C. Mensink et al. (eds.), Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI,
Springer Proceedings in Complexity,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_17
99
Using Higher Order Sensitivity
Approaches to Assess Aircraft Emissions
Impacts on O 3 and PM 2.5
Calvin Arter and Sarav Arunachalam
Abstract This study utilized an advanced sensitivity analysis, the higher order
Decoupled Direct Method (HDDM-3D) as implemented in the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) to quantify the impacts of aviation emissions
during the landing and takeoff (LTO) cycle at nine individual airports; five located
in regions of attainment of O 3 and PM 2.5 NAAQS: Boston Logan (BOS), Kansas
City (MCI), Raleigh Durham (RDU), Seattle-Tacoma (SEA), and Tucson (TUS);
and four located in regions of nonattainment: Chicago O’Hare (ORD), HartsfieldJackson Atlanta (ATL), John F. Kennedy (JFK), and Los Angeles (LAX). Fuel burn
changes needed at the four nonattainment airports ranged from −14.9 (357,185 less
tons) to −3.3 (55,715 less tons) times less fuel burned and from 1.6 (29,826 more
tons) to 3.1 (79,584 more tons) times more fuel burned to reduce ambient PM 2.5
by 0.1 µg/m
3 and O 3 by 1 ppb, respectively. Fuel burn changes needed at the five
attainment airports ranged from 20.4 (39,516 more tons) to 48.0 (397,180 more tons)
times more fuel burned and from −449.0 (−477,734 less tons) to −24.0 (46,648 less
tons) times less fuel burned to increase ambient PM 2.5 by 0.1 µg/m
3 and O 3 by
1 ppb, respectively. Using these estimates for a range of airports, we demonstrate
an illustration of how HDDM-based sensitivity calculations can be used to develop
source specific impacts on potential attainment designations for a region.
17.1 Introduction
The aviation sector has seen substantial growth in the past decade with air carriers
flying 631 million passenger miles in the year 2015, resulting in an increase of around
C. Arter (B)
Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel
Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
e-mail: arterca@email.unc.edu
C. Arter · S. Arunachalam
Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
e-mail: sarav@email.unc.edu
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
C. Mensink et al. (eds.), Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI,
Springer Proceedings in Complexity,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_17
99