644
E.-S. E. Omran and A. M. Negm
More recently, two innovative approaches have been explored, including early-life
conditioning (i.e., prenatal heat acclimation) and genetic selection of breeds with
the increased capacity of coping with heat stress conditions (i.e., increased heat
tolerance). However, these potential opportunities, although promising (particularly,
for poultry production in hot climatic regions), still require further research and
development.
3.5 Socioeconomic Impacts
Climate change, agriculture, and rural communities’ vulnerability in the Nile Delta.
The conclusion presents a brief comparison between the impact of urban expansion on
agricultural land and that of climate change on agriculture. The impact of urbanization
would be higher on the field crops’ cropping area, as it would reduce the area by
about 2.6% of the total field crops’ cropping area in Egypt based on 2015 data, while
climate change would only reduce the area by 0.04%. In contrast, the impact of urban
expansion on field crops’ production and the net value in the Nile Delta governorates
accounts only for about 50% of the impact of climate change. Urbanization would
reduce the field crops’ production by 2.33% of total field crops’ production in Egypt,
while climate change would reduce it by 4.42%. This would be reflected in the field
crops’ net value, as urbanization is to decrease the net value by 2.29%, whereas
climate change is to reduce it by 4.95% of total field crops’ net value in Egypt based
on 2015 data.
Climate change would increase the field crops’ water requirement by 2%, while
urbanization would decrease it by about 2.7%. However, climate change impacts are
dependent on the availability of adequate irrigation water. Any reduction in Egypt’s
water supply—due to environmental and physical causes, such as rain reduction
on the Ethiopian highlands and/or the building of the GERD, and increased ET of
field crops—would increase the severity of annual crop yield deficiencies affecting
farmers (landowners and laborers). All landowners and some laborers (about 0.03%)
are to be affected by climate change, while the impact of urbanization is to be more
severe on laborers as it would reduce the working days by about 2.5% of total field
crops’ working days in Egypt.
Climate change impacts on agriculture, in terms of decrease of field crops’
production and net value, could accelerate urbanization on agricultural land,
especially in marginal areas. Finally, the review of farmers’ and Nile Delta
governorates’ adaptive capacities showed that climate change is to significantly affect
Alexandria and Ismailia by reducing their field crops’ production and net value.
Nevertheless, the most vulnerable governorate due to its assets would be Beheira. As
the adaptation process would be hampered by the number of the rural population, the
size of land ownership, illiteracy, and poverty of farmers [21] and inadequate access to
VEW and funding source. Additionally, the losses of Beheira governorate would also
have a large impact on the national level due to the size of its field crops’ agricultural
land, production in tons , net value and farmers’ (women and men) percentage of total
E.-S. E. Omran and A. M. Negm
More recently, two innovative approaches have been explored, including early-life
conditioning (i.e., prenatal heat acclimation) and genetic selection of breeds with
the increased capacity of coping with heat stress conditions (i.e., increased heat
tolerance). However, these potential opportunities, although promising (particularly,
for poultry production in hot climatic regions), still require further research and
development.
3.5 Socioeconomic Impacts
Climate change, agriculture, and rural communities’ vulnerability in the Nile Delta.
The conclusion presents a brief comparison between the impact of urban expansion on
agricultural land and that of climate change on agriculture. The impact of urbanization
would be higher on the field crops’ cropping area, as it would reduce the area by
about 2.6% of the total field crops’ cropping area in Egypt based on 2015 data, while
climate change would only reduce the area by 0.04%. In contrast, the impact of urban
expansion on field crops’ production and the net value in the Nile Delta governorates
accounts only for about 50% of the impact of climate change. Urbanization would
reduce the field crops’ production by 2.33% of total field crops’ production in Egypt,
while climate change would reduce it by 4.42%. This would be reflected in the field
crops’ net value, as urbanization is to decrease the net value by 2.29%, whereas
climate change is to reduce it by 4.95% of total field crops’ net value in Egypt based
on 2015 data.
Climate change would increase the field crops’ water requirement by 2%, while
urbanization would decrease it by about 2.7%. However, climate change impacts are
dependent on the availability of adequate irrigation water. Any reduction in Egypt’s
water supply—due to environmental and physical causes, such as rain reduction
on the Ethiopian highlands and/or the building of the GERD, and increased ET of
field crops—would increase the severity of annual crop yield deficiencies affecting
farmers (landowners and laborers). All landowners and some laborers (about 0.03%)
are to be affected by climate change, while the impact of urbanization is to be more
severe on laborers as it would reduce the working days by about 2.5% of total field
crops’ working days in Egypt.
Climate change impacts on agriculture, in terms of decrease of field crops’
production and net value, could accelerate urbanization on agricultural land,
especially in marginal areas. Finally, the review of farmers’ and Nile Delta
governorates’ adaptive capacities showed that climate change is to significantly affect
Alexandria and Ismailia by reducing their field crops’ production and net value.
Nevertheless, the most vulnerable governorate due to its assets would be Beheira. As
the adaptation process would be hampered by the number of the rural population, the
size of land ownership, illiteracy, and poverty of farmers [21] and inadequate access to
VEW and funding source. Additionally, the losses of Beheira governorate would also
have a large impact on the national level due to the size of its field crops’ agricultural
land, production in tons , net value and farmers’ (women and men) percentage of total