586
S. A. Zahran
3.1.2 Egypt Food Insecurity and Climate Change Vulnerability Map
UN World Food Programmed (WFP) and the Met Office Hadley Centre produced
The Food Insecurity and Climate Change Vulnerability map. It illustrates index for
how strong adaptation and mitigation efforts will prevent the worst impacts of climate
change on hunger globally and help make people less vulnerable to food insecurity.
This index is calculated based on exposure to climate change related hazard,
sensitivity of agriculture production to these hazards, and the capacity of country
with climate change-related food shocks.
• Index is calculated from a measure of the average length flood and drought events
in each country as the exposure component for the baseline period (1981–2010).
The adaptive capacity component of the index is calculated using socio-economic
indicators relevant to the food security system. Criteria for inclusion, all data
included in the vulnerability to food insecurity index correlates with the Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) measure of under nutrition. Three representative
concentration pathways (RCPs) scenario are considered in this map; low emission
with temperature around 2 °C. “RCP 2.6”, intermediate emission with temperatures
between 2.5 and 3 °C above pre-industrial levels “RCP 4.5”, and high emission
with temperature rise in global average of 4 °C or more above pre-industrial levels
by the end of the 21st century. This scenario is also known as RCP 8.5.
The projections of the climate model are used to calculate future projections
of the exposure component of the index. Twelve climate models from the latest
generation of climate models used to inform the most recent Inter-governmental
Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC AR5) were used, and the average value of
the index for each country across the models is shown
There are three level of different adaptation; low; high and none as following
(Fig. 10):
• The ‘high’ adaptation scenario corresponds to a change of approximately 10–15%
in the 2050s compared to the present-day, and a further change of approximately
10–15% in the 2080s compared to the 2050s.
• The ‘low’ adaptation scenario corresponds to a change of approximately 5–10%
in the 2050s compared to the present-day, and a further change of approximately
5–10% in the 2080s compared to the 2050s.
• The no adaptation scenario maintains the sensitivity and adaptive capacity
components of the index at the present-day level.
As illustrates in the Fig. 11, and related to vulnerability map. It should be noted
that by 2050 and 2080 with high emission scenario for climate change and with conducting a High level of adaptation, Egypt vulnerability to food insecurity increase
with 35 and 62% from the present day respectively. However if there are maladaptation and with high scenario for emission the Egypt vulnerability to food insecurity
will be increase with 47 and 85% from the present day by 2050 and 2080 respectively. Table 1 shows the percentages of increasing the vulnerability of Egyptian
S. A. Zahran
3.1.2 Egypt Food Insecurity and Climate Change Vulnerability Map
UN World Food Programmed (WFP) and the Met Office Hadley Centre produced
The Food Insecurity and Climate Change Vulnerability map. It illustrates index for
how strong adaptation and mitigation efforts will prevent the worst impacts of climate
change on hunger globally and help make people less vulnerable to food insecurity.
This index is calculated based on exposure to climate change related hazard,
sensitivity of agriculture production to these hazards, and the capacity of country
with climate change-related food shocks.
• Index is calculated from a measure of the average length flood and drought events
in each country as the exposure component for the baseline period (1981–2010).
The adaptive capacity component of the index is calculated using socio-economic
indicators relevant to the food security system. Criteria for inclusion, all data
included in the vulnerability to food insecurity index correlates with the Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) measure of under nutrition. Three representative
concentration pathways (RCPs) scenario are considered in this map; low emission
with temperature around 2 °C. “RCP 2.6”, intermediate emission with temperatures
between 2.5 and 3 °C above pre-industrial levels “RCP 4.5”, and high emission
with temperature rise in global average of 4 °C or more above pre-industrial levels
by the end of the 21st century. This scenario is also known as RCP 8.5.
The projections of the climate model are used to calculate future projections
of the exposure component of the index. Twelve climate models from the latest
generation of climate models used to inform the most recent Inter-governmental
Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC AR5) were used, and the average value of
the index for each country across the models is shown
There are three level of different adaptation; low; high and none as following
(Fig. 10):
• The ‘high’ adaptation scenario corresponds to a change of approximately 10–15%
in the 2050s compared to the present-day, and a further change of approximately
10–15% in the 2080s compared to the 2050s.
• The ‘low’ adaptation scenario corresponds to a change of approximately 5–10%
in the 2050s compared to the present-day, and a further change of approximately
5–10% in the 2080s compared to the 2050s.
• The no adaptation scenario maintains the sensitivity and adaptive capacity
components of the index at the present-day level.
As illustrates in the Fig. 11, and related to vulnerability map. It should be noted
that by 2050 and 2080 with high emission scenario for climate change and with conducting a High level of adaptation, Egypt vulnerability to food insecurity increase
with 35 and 62% from the present day respectively. However if there are maladaptation and with high scenario for emission the Egypt vulnerability to food insecurity
will be increase with 47 and 85% from the present day by 2050 and 2080 respectively. Table 1 shows the percentages of increasing the vulnerability of Egyptian