526
D. M. Gouda
1 Introduction
Climate change is a global phenomenon affecting countries and economic sectors
differently through the increase or decrease in temperature, decrease or increase in
rainfall and water resources availability, sea-level rise and extreme weather events
(floods and droughts). Climate models predict that the change in climatic conditions
will affect agriculture by reducing land productivity between 10 and 20% by 2050
in many developing countries and affecting about 10% of the agricultural land [1,
2]. Accordingly, many farming households are expected to counter crop deficiencies
and yield reductions that would affect their livelihoods and in turn their vulnerability
[3, 4].
Farmers in Egypt are equally expected to suffer from climate change impacts, as
Egypt has been classified as one of five countries in the world, vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change [5, 6]. Climate change is to negatively affect prime
agricultural land and thus harm agricultural production. A UNDP supported study
conducted in 2013 [7], expects a decrease between 4 and 17% of agricultural production by 2030. The Nile Delta in the northern part of Egypt—comprising about 50% of
the agricultural land—is identified as one of the world’s three “extreme” vulnerability hotspots. It is expected to experience temperature and crop water requirements’
increase, and sea-level rise (SLR) that would negatively affect large agricultural land
areas and in turn impact agricultural production [8, 9]. This would sequentially have
a bearing on farmers’ resilience by increasing their vulnerability.
Nevertheless, agriculture in Egypt in general and in the Nile Delta in particular, is
currently facing other intense challenges resulting from the rapid population growth
that is exceeding 2.5% annually [10], thus augmenting agricultural land and irrigation
water scarcities. These challenges can be categorized into socio-economic and natural
resources challenges. These challenges, if not immediately countered, are expected
to have far-reaching future impacts on agriculture and would exacerbate the impacts
of climate change in Egypt and the Nile Delta.
Though aware of the importance of the impacts of the natural resources challenges on agriculture, this chapter is only to address the socio-economic challenges
impacts on agriculture in the Nile Delta governorates. It is believed that the socioeconomic aspects fuel and reinforce the natural resources challenges, thus, if the
former are curbed the negative impacts of the latter could be contained.
To this end, this chapter attempts to explore the change in agriculture in the Nile
Delta governorates, in terms of field crops’ agricultural land area, production, net
value and employment. This attempt includes changes resulting on the one hand
from the continuation of the socio-economic challenges (without climate change),
and on the other from those caused by the climate change stimuli (without urban
expansion), here, temperature increase and sea-level rise (SLR).
The focus is on socio-economic and climatic changes that are expected to take
place by the year 2030, which is only 12 years ahead from today that allows the
assumption that similar socio-economic conditions in the Nile Delta governorates
would continue to exist.
D. M. Gouda
1 Introduction
Climate change is a global phenomenon affecting countries and economic sectors
differently through the increase or decrease in temperature, decrease or increase in
rainfall and water resources availability, sea-level rise and extreme weather events
(floods and droughts). Climate models predict that the change in climatic conditions
will affect agriculture by reducing land productivity between 10 and 20% by 2050
in many developing countries and affecting about 10% of the agricultural land [1,
2]. Accordingly, many farming households are expected to counter crop deficiencies
and yield reductions that would affect their livelihoods and in turn their vulnerability
[3, 4].
Farmers in Egypt are equally expected to suffer from climate change impacts, as
Egypt has been classified as one of five countries in the world, vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change [5, 6]. Climate change is to negatively affect prime
agricultural land and thus harm agricultural production. A UNDP supported study
conducted in 2013 [7], expects a decrease between 4 and 17% of agricultural production by 2030. The Nile Delta in the northern part of Egypt—comprising about 50% of
the agricultural land—is identified as one of the world’s three “extreme” vulnerability hotspots. It is expected to experience temperature and crop water requirements’
increase, and sea-level rise (SLR) that would negatively affect large agricultural land
areas and in turn impact agricultural production [8, 9]. This would sequentially have
a bearing on farmers’ resilience by increasing their vulnerability.
Nevertheless, agriculture in Egypt in general and in the Nile Delta in particular, is
currently facing other intense challenges resulting from the rapid population growth
that is exceeding 2.5% annually [10], thus augmenting agricultural land and irrigation
water scarcities. These challenges can be categorized into socio-economic and natural
resources challenges. These challenges, if not immediately countered, are expected
to have far-reaching future impacts on agriculture and would exacerbate the impacts
of climate change in Egypt and the Nile Delta.
Though aware of the importance of the impacts of the natural resources challenges on agriculture, this chapter is only to address the socio-economic challenges
impacts on agriculture in the Nile Delta governorates. It is believed that the socioeconomic aspects fuel and reinforce the natural resources challenges, thus, if the
former are curbed the negative impacts of the latter could be contained.
To this end, this chapter attempts to explore the change in agriculture in the Nile
Delta governorates, in terms of field crops’ agricultural land area, production, net
value and employment. This attempt includes changes resulting on the one hand
from the continuation of the socio-economic challenges (without climate change),
and on the other from those caused by the climate change stimuli (without urban
expansion), here, temperature increase and sea-level rise (SLR).
The focus is on socio-economic and climatic changes that are expected to take
place by the year 2030, which is only 12 years ahead from today that allows the
assumption that similar socio-economic conditions in the Nile Delta governorates
would continue to exist.