Projected Crop Coefficients Under
Climate Change in Egypt
Samiha Ouda
Abstract The objective of this chapter was to quantify how climate change will
affect the value of Kc for several important crops in Egypt. One way to do so is to
develop a procedure to accurately estimate Kc values for 14 field crops, 7 fruit crops
and 13 vegetable crops in the five agro-climatic zones of Egypt in 2030. Monthly
values of evapotranspiration (ETo) in 2016 were calculated using Penman-Monteith
equation (P-M) and Hargreaves-Samani equation (H-S). Then, the monthly ETo(HS) values were regressed on monthly ETo(P-M) values, and prediction equations
were developed for each agro-climatic zone of Egypt. These equations were used
to project ETo values under climate change in 2030 using RCP6.0 climate change
scenario resulted from MIROC5 climate change model. These values of ETo were
used to run BISm model and to calculate Kc values for the studied crops, the date of
each Kc growth stage and its water consumptive use in 2030. Comparison between
Kc values in 2016 and 2030 for field and vegetable crops revealed that the values of
Kc ini were higher in 2016, compared to its counterpart values in 2030. The values of
Kc mid and Kc end were similar or lower in 2016, compared to its counterpart values
in 2030. Whereas, there was no change in the values of Kc for fruit crops between
2016 and 2030.
Keywords Penman-Monteith equation · Hargreaves-Samani equation (H-S) ·
MIROC5 climate change model · RCP6.0 climate change scenario
1 Introduction
The relationships between climate, crop, water, and soil are complex with many
biological processes involved [1]. An increase in temperatures is expected under
climate change [2] and could lead to a net deficit in atmospheric water content.
Thus excessive evaporation from soil, water, and plant surfaces would occur [3].
Climate change is expected to have many adverse impacts on various sectors, yet
S. Ouda (B)
Water Requirements and Field Irrigation Research Department, Soils, Water and Environment
Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, 9 El-Gamah Street, Giza 11211, Egypt
e-mail: samihaouda@yahoo.com
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
E.-S. E. Omran and A. M. Negm (eds.), Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food
Security in Egypt, Springer Water, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-41629-4_13
273
Climate Change in Egypt
Samiha Ouda
Abstract The objective of this chapter was to quantify how climate change will
affect the value of Kc for several important crops in Egypt. One way to do so is to
develop a procedure to accurately estimate Kc values for 14 field crops, 7 fruit crops
and 13 vegetable crops in the five agro-climatic zones of Egypt in 2030. Monthly
values of evapotranspiration (ETo) in 2016 were calculated using Penman-Monteith
equation (P-M) and Hargreaves-Samani equation (H-S). Then, the monthly ETo(HS) values were regressed on monthly ETo(P-M) values, and prediction equations
were developed for each agro-climatic zone of Egypt. These equations were used
to project ETo values under climate change in 2030 using RCP6.0 climate change
scenario resulted from MIROC5 climate change model. These values of ETo were
used to run BISm model and to calculate Kc values for the studied crops, the date of
each Kc growth stage and its water consumptive use in 2030. Comparison between
Kc values in 2016 and 2030 for field and vegetable crops revealed that the values of
Kc ini were higher in 2016, compared to its counterpart values in 2030. The values of
Kc mid and Kc end were similar or lower in 2016, compared to its counterpart values
in 2030. Whereas, there was no change in the values of Kc for fruit crops between
2016 and 2030.
Keywords Penman-Monteith equation · Hargreaves-Samani equation (H-S) ·
MIROC5 climate change model · RCP6.0 climate change scenario
1 Introduction
The relationships between climate, crop, water, and soil are complex with many
biological processes involved [1]. An increase in temperatures is expected under
climate change [2] and could lead to a net deficit in atmospheric water content.
Thus excessive evaporation from soil, water, and plant surfaces would occur [3].
Climate change is expected to have many adverse impacts on various sectors, yet
S. Ouda (B)
Water Requirements and Field Irrigation Research Department, Soils, Water and Environment
Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, 9 El-Gamah Street, Giza 11211, Egypt
e-mail: samihaouda@yahoo.com
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
E.-S. E. Omran and A. M. Negm (eds.), Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food
Security in Egypt, Springer Water, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-41629-4_13
273