266
E.-S. E. Omran
10 Impact of Climate Change on Field Crops’ Production
and Net Value
The increase in temperature is predicted to influence the agricultural land area in the
governorates of the Nile Delta. Due to their insufficient access to fresh water, remote
and marginal land areas could be spoiled [42]. Nevertheless, the potential area to be
lost due to the temperature increase is not quantified in this chapter.
Temperature increase would affect field crops’ production in the Nile Delta governorates. Table 4 shows that the temperature increase would decrease the total field
crops’ production in Egypt by 4.4% compared to 2015. Depending on their cropping
pattern, however, the impact on the governorates is expected to differ. For example,
pulses should be most affected by a 9% decrease in total production in Egypt. The
production of pulses is concentrated in Alexandria, Damietta and Kafr El-Sheikh
where it covers 2.1%, 1.9%, and 1.2% of their total field crops’ area respectively,
followed by vegetables’ production that would suffer from a reduction of 7.2%.
The impact on vegetable-growing governorates is predicted to be higher, however,
as vegetables cover larger agricultural areas in Alexandria, Ismailia, and Beheira,
amounting about 43%, 35% and 22% respectively. In contrast, the production of
cotton is to increase by about 9% of total cotton production in Egypt (based on 2015
data). This increase is to mainly benefit Kafr El-Sheikh, and Beheira governorates
as cotton cover 7.1% and 3.5% of their respective agricultural land areas.
Also, the production of strategic field crops will suffer as the production of cereals
will decrease by 5%, the production of sugar crops by 0.3% and the production of
oil crops by around 1.1% of their total production in Egypt based on data from 2015.
Wheat, sugar crops and oil crops are labeled strategic crops for the Egyptian government. These crops are essential for the diet and clover of the Egyptian populations
Table 4 Impact of
temperature increase on
agriculture in the Nile Delta
governorates in 2030
Field crops’ group
P, %
N, %
W, %
Cereals
5.00
4.29
2.02
Sugar crops
0.33
0.30
0.56
Oil crops
1.08
1.07
0.89
Pulses
9.01
3.95
1.57
Vegetables
7.19
6.01
1.42
Clover (berseem)
5.13
6.93
2.53
Medicinal crops
0.21
4.66
0.29
Cotton
(+8.75)
(+10.59)
2.32
% Reduction of total Egypt
4.39
4.95
1.75
P = % reduction/increase of field crops production of total field
crops production in Egypt in 2015. N = % reduction/increase of
field crops net value of total field crops net value in Egypt in 2015.
W = % increase of field crops water requirement of total water
requirement in Egypt in 2015
E.-S. E. Omran
10 Impact of Climate Change on Field Crops’ Production
and Net Value
The increase in temperature is predicted to influence the agricultural land area in the
governorates of the Nile Delta. Due to their insufficient access to fresh water, remote
and marginal land areas could be spoiled [42]. Nevertheless, the potential area to be
lost due to the temperature increase is not quantified in this chapter.
Temperature increase would affect field crops’ production in the Nile Delta governorates. Table 4 shows that the temperature increase would decrease the total field
crops’ production in Egypt by 4.4% compared to 2015. Depending on their cropping
pattern, however, the impact on the governorates is expected to differ. For example,
pulses should be most affected by a 9% decrease in total production in Egypt. The
production of pulses is concentrated in Alexandria, Damietta and Kafr El-Sheikh
where it covers 2.1%, 1.9%, and 1.2% of their total field crops’ area respectively,
followed by vegetables’ production that would suffer from a reduction of 7.2%.
The impact on vegetable-growing governorates is predicted to be higher, however,
as vegetables cover larger agricultural areas in Alexandria, Ismailia, and Beheira,
amounting about 43%, 35% and 22% respectively. In contrast, the production of
cotton is to increase by about 9% of total cotton production in Egypt (based on 2015
data). This increase is to mainly benefit Kafr El-Sheikh, and Beheira governorates
as cotton cover 7.1% and 3.5% of their respective agricultural land areas.
Also, the production of strategic field crops will suffer as the production of cereals
will decrease by 5%, the production of sugar crops by 0.3% and the production of
oil crops by around 1.1% of their total production in Egypt based on data from 2015.
Wheat, sugar crops and oil crops are labeled strategic crops for the Egyptian government. These crops are essential for the diet and clover of the Egyptian populations
Table 4 Impact of
temperature increase on
agriculture in the Nile Delta
governorates in 2030
Field crops’ group
P, %
N, %
W, %
Cereals
5.00
4.29
2.02
Sugar crops
0.33
0.30
0.56
Oil crops
1.08
1.07
0.89
Pulses
9.01
3.95
1.57
Vegetables
7.19
6.01
1.42
Clover (berseem)
5.13
6.93
2.53
Medicinal crops
0.21
4.66
0.29
Cotton
(+8.75)
(+10.59)
2.32
% Reduction of total Egypt
4.39
4.95
1.75
P = % reduction/increase of field crops production of total field
crops production in Egypt in 2015. N = % reduction/increase of
field crops net value of total field crops net value in Egypt in 2015.
W = % increase of field crops water requirement of total water
requirement in Egypt in 2015