Agricultural Production in Egypt:
Assessing Vulnerability and Enhancing
Adaptive Capacity and Resilience
to Climate Change
Mohamed A. S. Abdel Monem and Biljana Radojevic
Abstract The international community has developed the 2030 Agenda and the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that include specific elements to enhance
sustainable agricultural production and food security. SDG 13 “take urgent actions
to combat climate change and its impacts” calls for enhancing the adaptive capacity and build resilience to climate change as well as mainstreaming climate change
measures into policies and planning processes of the countries. According to the
IPCC assessment, Near East North Africa is one of the world regions that are most
vulnerable to climatic change and consequently, agriculture is the most affected sector. It is anticipated that such a climate change impact would reduce crop yield up
to 30%. Within the ‘Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate
Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region’
(RICCAR), the impact of climate change on specific agriculture sectors was projected using the two considered climate scenarios, based on selected Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCP), specifically RCP 4.5 (moderate-case scenario) and
RCP 8.5 (worst-case scenario). Based on the RICCARD projections, the vulnerability of the agricultural sectors in the Arab Region to climate change have few aspects.
Environmental challenges in the Arab world include water scarcity, with the lowest
freshwater resource endowment in the world and very low precipitation with excessive exposure to extreme events. The Arab Region is one of the most impacted regions
by climate change with half of its area’s cropland systems producing wheat, maize,
olives, potatoes, olives and vegetables are considered high vulnerable to climate
change. Livestock production as well is expected to decline due to drought, increase
in degradation of rangelands and desertification. Expected more drought cycles in
addition to increasing deforestation rate add to the challenges facing the forestry sector in the region. Egypt is considered as one of the countries that are greatly impacted
by the climate change. The vulnerability of Egypt to climate change is significant
in all agriculture sectors: cropping, fishery and livestock. Developing strategy to
M. A. S. Abdel Monem (B) · B. Radojevic
Regional Office for the Near East and North Africa, Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations, FAO, P.O. Box: 2223, Dokki, Cairo, Egypt
e-mail: mohamed.abdelmonem@fao.org
M. A. S. Abdel Monem
Soil and Water Department, Egyptian Atomic Energy Authority, Cairo, Egypt
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
E.-S. E. Omran and A. M. Negm (eds.), Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food
Security in Egypt, Springer Water, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-41629-4_10
205
Assessing Vulnerability and Enhancing
Adaptive Capacity and Resilience
to Climate Change
Mohamed A. S. Abdel Monem and Biljana Radojevic
Abstract The international community has developed the 2030 Agenda and the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that include specific elements to enhance
sustainable agricultural production and food security. SDG 13 “take urgent actions
to combat climate change and its impacts” calls for enhancing the adaptive capacity and build resilience to climate change as well as mainstreaming climate change
measures into policies and planning processes of the countries. According to the
IPCC assessment, Near East North Africa is one of the world regions that are most
vulnerable to climatic change and consequently, agriculture is the most affected sector. It is anticipated that such a climate change impact would reduce crop yield up
to 30%. Within the ‘Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate
Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region’
(RICCAR), the impact of climate change on specific agriculture sectors was projected using the two considered climate scenarios, based on selected Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCP), specifically RCP 4.5 (moderate-case scenario) and
RCP 8.5 (worst-case scenario). Based on the RICCARD projections, the vulnerability of the agricultural sectors in the Arab Region to climate change have few aspects.
Environmental challenges in the Arab world include water scarcity, with the lowest
freshwater resource endowment in the world and very low precipitation with excessive exposure to extreme events. The Arab Region is one of the most impacted regions
by climate change with half of its area’s cropland systems producing wheat, maize,
olives, potatoes, olives and vegetables are considered high vulnerable to climate
change. Livestock production as well is expected to decline due to drought, increase
in degradation of rangelands and desertification. Expected more drought cycles in
addition to increasing deforestation rate add to the challenges facing the forestry sector in the region. Egypt is considered as one of the countries that are greatly impacted
by the climate change. The vulnerability of Egypt to climate change is significant
in all agriculture sectors: cropping, fishery and livestock. Developing strategy to
M. A. S. Abdel Monem (B) · B. Radojevic
Regional Office for the Near East and North Africa, Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations, FAO, P.O. Box: 2223, Dokki, Cairo, Egypt
e-mail: mohamed.abdelmonem@fao.org
M. A. S. Abdel Monem
Soil and Water Department, Egyptian Atomic Energy Authority, Cairo, Egypt
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
E.-S. E. Omran and A. M. Negm (eds.), Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food
Security in Egypt, Springer Water, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-41629-4_10
205