159
flood (September 2014) and ice avalanche over Sonam post in Siachen (Feb 2016)
etc. are some of the major events that signal the destruction to which the region has
been subjected to due to climate change. At certain places drought and intense heat
wave have killed the diverse Himalayan flora and fauna. The impact of climate
change is now superimposed on a variety of other environmental and social stresses,
which has already been recognised as severe (Ives and Messerli 1989). Climate
change is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of disasters in Himalayan
Region. More and more people and assets in the densely populated regions are
becoming vulnerable. The remoteness of the region and poor accessibility makes its
inhabitants especially the older and disabled people, women and children etc. more
vulnerable to frequent disasters. The geopolitical fallout of climate change in
Himalaya may reach to a point of no return with the migration of poor people to
plains due to depletion and destruction of resources, loss of employment and migration of a few affluent people to mountains to capture and control its limited resources
to their advantage. Thus, there is a need to shift focus from post disaster activity to
pre disaster activity by taking measures to reduce and mitigate climate related disasters through early warning systems, systematic development of hilly regions, regulated tourism, afforestation, preserving biodiversity regimes and augmenting
information systems to educate masses about the ground realities.
2 Research Findings
Himalaya has two main sources of water feed, which sustains its ecosystem and
perennial rivers. One is the abundant amount of moisture from Indian Summer
Monsoon (ISM), which is mostly concentrated in the central and eastern regions of
Himalaya during summer months. The monsoon penetrates northwards along the
Brahmaputra River into the southeast Tibetan Plateau, but rarely as far as the
Karakoram (Hofer and Messerli 2006; Rees and Collins 2006). Other is the midlatitude western disturbances that feed mostly the North-Western region of Himalaya
during the winters. The ISM dominates the climate of the region, lasting 8 months
(March–October) in the eastern Himalaya, 4 months (June–September) in the central Himalaya, and 2 months (July–August) in the western Himalaya (Chalise and
Khanal 2001). The highest annual precipitation in the form of rain occurs in
Mawsynram, amounting to more than 12,000 mm and in the form of snow at a few
places in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh amounting to about 600–700 mm of water
equivalent. The main melting of snow and glaciers occurs in high summer; however,
this coincides with the monsoon, and is not critical for water supply downstream as
it is when melting occurs in the offspring and autumn. When monsoon is weak,
delayed, or fails, meltwater from snow and ice may limit or avert catastrophic
drought (ICIMOD 2009). The variability within solid and liquid precipitation, during winter and summer months, is very large with solid precipitation also taking
place during summer in some higher regions of Himalaya and liquid precipitation
taking place at many places during winter in inner Himalaya. The high Himalayan
Implications of Changing Climatic Pattern on the Geopolitical Situation of North…
flood (September 2014) and ice avalanche over Sonam post in Siachen (Feb 2016)
etc. are some of the major events that signal the destruction to which the region has
been subjected to due to climate change. At certain places drought and intense heat
wave have killed the diverse Himalayan flora and fauna. The impact of climate
change is now superimposed on a variety of other environmental and social stresses,
which has already been recognised as severe (Ives and Messerli 1989). Climate
change is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of disasters in Himalayan
Region. More and more people and assets in the densely populated regions are
becoming vulnerable. The remoteness of the region and poor accessibility makes its
inhabitants especially the older and disabled people, women and children etc. more
vulnerable to frequent disasters. The geopolitical fallout of climate change in
Himalaya may reach to a point of no return with the migration of poor people to
plains due to depletion and destruction of resources, loss of employment and migration of a few affluent people to mountains to capture and control its limited resources
to their advantage. Thus, there is a need to shift focus from post disaster activity to
pre disaster activity by taking measures to reduce and mitigate climate related disasters through early warning systems, systematic development of hilly regions, regulated tourism, afforestation, preserving biodiversity regimes and augmenting
information systems to educate masses about the ground realities.
2 Research Findings
Himalaya has two main sources of water feed, which sustains its ecosystem and
perennial rivers. One is the abundant amount of moisture from Indian Summer
Monsoon (ISM), which is mostly concentrated in the central and eastern regions of
Himalaya during summer months. The monsoon penetrates northwards along the
Brahmaputra River into the southeast Tibetan Plateau, but rarely as far as the
Karakoram (Hofer and Messerli 2006; Rees and Collins 2006). Other is the midlatitude western disturbances that feed mostly the North-Western region of Himalaya
during the winters. The ISM dominates the climate of the region, lasting 8 months
(March–October) in the eastern Himalaya, 4 months (June–September) in the central Himalaya, and 2 months (July–August) in the western Himalaya (Chalise and
Khanal 2001). The highest annual precipitation in the form of rain occurs in
Mawsynram, amounting to more than 12,000 mm and in the form of snow at a few
places in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh amounting to about 600–700 mm of water
equivalent. The main melting of snow and glaciers occurs in high summer; however,
this coincides with the monsoon, and is not critical for water supply downstream as
it is when melting occurs in the offspring and autumn. When monsoon is weak,
delayed, or fails, meltwater from snow and ice may limit or avert catastrophic
drought (ICIMOD 2009). The variability within solid and liquid precipitation, during winter and summer months, is very large with solid precipitation also taking
place during summer in some higher regions of Himalaya and liquid precipitation
taking place at many places during winter in inner Himalaya. The high Himalayan
Implications of Changing Climatic Pattern on the Geopolitical Situation of North…