157
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
P. S. Goel et al. (eds.), Climate Change and the White World,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21679-5_11
Implications of Changing Climatic Pattern
on the Geopolitical Situation of North
Western Himalaya, India
Ashwagosha Ganju and H. S. Negi
Abstract Indian Himalayan region has warmed significantly in last few decades.
Winter precipitation has become more variable with increase in liquid precipitation
except in Karakoram Himalaya. There has been significant increase in winter seasonal precipitation in last three decades in Lower Himalayan regions whereas
Higher Himalaya has shown decrease. The snow cover area has decreased everywhere in Indian Himalaya except in Karakoram where it has increased marginally.
The increase in liquid precipitation in place of snow, may prove disastrous in some
regions where regolith is loose and dry. The rapid erosion from mountain slopes
would give rise to many other hazards downstream. Extreme winter precipitation
events may produce extensive avalanches, which may travel kilometers to cause
extensive damage in hitherto safe areas. All these changes coupled with the increase
in number of extreme precipitation events in past few decades have brought in a new
climatic shift, which may have far reaching consequences on geopolitical situation
in Indian Himalayan region in near future.
With all these changes the accessibility to the remote regions may ease, which
may help in efficient management of border regions. However, what would be the
consequence of such a situation when extended in future, though modeled by climate scientists, has yet to be evaluated geopolitically. While some efforts on modelling have been attempted, the scientific validation from ground has yet not been
done properly. Remote sensing data has helped to some extent, yet there is a need to
augment and evaluate it with ground data.
There is a need to prepare for worst case scenarios, given the current geopolitical
situations that are already showing signs of bursting at seams. Predicting and diffusing extreme weather events will continue to be the future research area in Himalaya.
Simultaneously, every drop of precious snow and glacier melt water has to be
counted for by construction of many small reservoirs in Himalaya for the purpose
of harvesting snow melt and rain water with a strong regulation on its consumption
and usage. A comprehensive plan on monitoring cryospheric region of Himalaya
with dense network of automatic observatories and with dedicated crysopheric satellite observation system is the need of hour. UAVs, with better sensors maybe put
A. Ganju (*) · H. S. Negi
Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment, Chandigarh, India
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
P. S. Goel et al. (eds.), Climate Change and the White World,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21679-5_11
Implications of Changing Climatic Pattern
on the Geopolitical Situation of North
Western Himalaya, India
Ashwagosha Ganju and H. S. Negi
Abstract Indian Himalayan region has warmed significantly in last few decades.
Winter precipitation has become more variable with increase in liquid precipitation
except in Karakoram Himalaya. There has been significant increase in winter seasonal precipitation in last three decades in Lower Himalayan regions whereas
Higher Himalaya has shown decrease. The snow cover area has decreased everywhere in Indian Himalaya except in Karakoram where it has increased marginally.
The increase in liquid precipitation in place of snow, may prove disastrous in some
regions where regolith is loose and dry. The rapid erosion from mountain slopes
would give rise to many other hazards downstream. Extreme winter precipitation
events may produce extensive avalanches, which may travel kilometers to cause
extensive damage in hitherto safe areas. All these changes coupled with the increase
in number of extreme precipitation events in past few decades have brought in a new
climatic shift, which may have far reaching consequences on geopolitical situation
in Indian Himalayan region in near future.
With all these changes the accessibility to the remote regions may ease, which
may help in efficient management of border regions. However, what would be the
consequence of such a situation when extended in future, though modeled by climate scientists, has yet to be evaluated geopolitically. While some efforts on modelling have been attempted, the scientific validation from ground has yet not been
done properly. Remote sensing data has helped to some extent, yet there is a need to
augment and evaluate it with ground data.
There is a need to prepare for worst case scenarios, given the current geopolitical
situations that are already showing signs of bursting at seams. Predicting and diffusing extreme weather events will continue to be the future research area in Himalaya.
Simultaneously, every drop of precious snow and glacier melt water has to be
counted for by construction of many small reservoirs in Himalaya for the purpose
of harvesting snow melt and rain water with a strong regulation on its consumption
and usage. A comprehensive plan on monitoring cryospheric region of Himalaya
with dense network of automatic observatories and with dedicated crysopheric satellite observation system is the need of hour. UAVs, with better sensors maybe put
A. Ganju (*) · H. S. Negi
Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment, Chandigarh, India