93
different forest types (Joshi et al. 2012; Chakraborty et al. 2016). In a more recent
study Rashid et al. (2015) indicated that (A1B scenario, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) most
of the area under Polar desert/rock/ice is projected to be replaced by boreal evergreen forest, tundra and shrub lands by the year 2035. The study further mentioned
that the forests in the central and north-western part of India are highly vulnerable.
Furthermore, a significant part of the Himalayan bio-diversity hotspot that stretches
along the northwestern part of India along the states of Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir
and Himachal Pradesh is projected to be highly vulnerable (Chaturvedi et al. 2011;
Upgupta et al. 2015). This may be mostly attributed to the higher elevation of these
regions. Similarly, a substantial forest area under temperate evergreen forest category of Jammu & Kashmir is expected to be colonized by temperate deciduous
forest by 2030s (Ravindranath et al. 2006). Similarly, forests of Lahul-Spiti and
Kangra districts are expected to shift from the existing forest type under RCP4.5
and 8.5 CC scenario by 2080s (Ravindranath et al. 2006). Moreover, expansion of
savannahs, reappearance of temperate evergreen coniferous forest and shrub lands
in Karakoram belt is expected under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 CC scenarios by 2080s.
Two significant factors impacting the change in forest cover over the northeast
India were identified to be: (i) population growth, and (ii) adverse impact of CC
(Reddy et al. 2013). Decreasing rainfall trend and reduction in moisture availability
over the north-eastern India has been found to particularly impact the evergreen
broad leaf forest. Subsequently, a significant proportion of the evergreen broad leaf
forest type is found to be replaced by mixed forest category (Reddy et al. 2013). A
detailed district wise vulnerability of forest of northeast India was carried out for the
period of 2021–2050 using IPCC emission scenario A1B (Ravindranath et al. 2005).
The results of this study mentioned that overall forest vulnerabilities are expected to
increase under a warmer climate in the future. Forests of western Nagaland,
Mizoram, north Sikkim and east Garo hills are highly vulnerable but vulnerability
is expected to reduce in Kokrazhar region of Assam (Ravindranath et al. 2006).
Model-based projections suggest that warming will continue for the foreseeable
future. Under such scenario of changing climate, it is expected that the diverse ecosystem components in the region will be affected. Therefore, there is a need to
develop effective strategies and plans for adaptation and mitigation. This requires
attention and a balanced thinking at local to global level.
5 Reorienting R&D Focus
Notwithstanding the facts and the projections of CC on Himalaya, efforts are underway to understand the impacts, intensity and direction of the investigations across
the regions. However, these efforts are not uniform and are often based on erroneously made projections. At present the global understanding on CC trends and
implications are emerging from bigger nations, which influence regional economy
(i.e., China, India). Therefore, the perspectives of smaller nations get diffused or
weakly reflected. Further, while discussing various aspects of CC researches in the
Need for Reorienting Climate Change Research in the Himalaya: Balancing the Approach
different forest types (Joshi et al. 2012; Chakraborty et al. 2016). In a more recent
study Rashid et al. (2015) indicated that (A1B scenario, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) most
of the area under Polar desert/rock/ice is projected to be replaced by boreal evergreen forest, tundra and shrub lands by the year 2035. The study further mentioned
that the forests in the central and north-western part of India are highly vulnerable.
Furthermore, a significant part of the Himalayan bio-diversity hotspot that stretches
along the northwestern part of India along the states of Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir
and Himachal Pradesh is projected to be highly vulnerable (Chaturvedi et al. 2011;
Upgupta et al. 2015). This may be mostly attributed to the higher elevation of these
regions. Similarly, a substantial forest area under temperate evergreen forest category of Jammu & Kashmir is expected to be colonized by temperate deciduous
forest by 2030s (Ravindranath et al. 2006). Similarly, forests of Lahul-Spiti and
Kangra districts are expected to shift from the existing forest type under RCP4.5
and 8.5 CC scenario by 2080s (Ravindranath et al. 2006). Moreover, expansion of
savannahs, reappearance of temperate evergreen coniferous forest and shrub lands
in Karakoram belt is expected under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 CC scenarios by 2080s.
Two significant factors impacting the change in forest cover over the northeast
India were identified to be: (i) population growth, and (ii) adverse impact of CC
(Reddy et al. 2013). Decreasing rainfall trend and reduction in moisture availability
over the north-eastern India has been found to particularly impact the evergreen
broad leaf forest. Subsequently, a significant proportion of the evergreen broad leaf
forest type is found to be replaced by mixed forest category (Reddy et al. 2013). A
detailed district wise vulnerability of forest of northeast India was carried out for the
period of 2021–2050 using IPCC emission scenario A1B (Ravindranath et al. 2005).
The results of this study mentioned that overall forest vulnerabilities are expected to
increase under a warmer climate in the future. Forests of western Nagaland,
Mizoram, north Sikkim and east Garo hills are highly vulnerable but vulnerability
is expected to reduce in Kokrazhar region of Assam (Ravindranath et al. 2006).
Model-based projections suggest that warming will continue for the foreseeable
future. Under such scenario of changing climate, it is expected that the diverse ecosystem components in the region will be affected. Therefore, there is a need to
develop effective strategies and plans for adaptation and mitigation. This requires
attention and a balanced thinking at local to global level.
5 Reorienting R&D Focus
Notwithstanding the facts and the projections of CC on Himalaya, efforts are underway to understand the impacts, intensity and direction of the investigations across
the regions. However, these efforts are not uniform and are often based on erroneously made projections. At present the global understanding on CC trends and
implications are emerging from bigger nations, which influence regional economy
(i.e., China, India). Therefore, the perspectives of smaller nations get diffused or
weakly reflected. Further, while discussing various aspects of CC researches in the
Need for Reorienting Climate Change Research in the Himalaya: Balancing the Approach