91
and frequency of natural disasters (Aryal et al. 2014). Unprecedented changes in
climate (Dimri et al. 2013; Madhura et al. 2015) have adversely affected the livelihoods of inhabitant community.
Studies exhibit consistent trends in overall warming in the HKH region over the
past 100 years (Du et al. 2004; IPCC 2007; ICIMOD 2017), with indications that
temperatures are rising at higher rates in higher altitude areas. Model-based projections indicate that the warming will continue for the foreseeable future (Shrestha
and Devkota 2010). Temperature in the HKH region has been projected to increase
by 1–2 °C in general, and by 4–5 °C in high altitude regions by 2050 (Sathaye et al.
2006). The 1.5 °C world rise as agreed in Paris UNFCCC 2015, even if achieved
then temperature rise in HKH would be expected to be 2–3 times higher. The snow
and ice reserves in HKH represent a massive store of freshwater, providing resources
for energy, tourism, sanitation, and food production, among many other regional
needs. The demand for ecosystem goods and services is growing due to rapid population growth and other socioeconomic processes such as accelerating globalization, with the added stress of CC on ecosystems (Yi et al. 2017). This pressure has
negative impact on the ecosystem structure, functioning and delivery of goods and
services. It has been reported that the increasing trends of temperature has lead to
degradation of forests and rangelands, thus endangering livelihoods and biodiversity in Himalayan region (ICIMOD 2017). Climate driven changes in moisture
inputs in the form of snow and rainfall, and temporary storage in the form of glaciers, snow and groundwater are likely to have a profound effect on the flow regimes
of the major rivers (Shrestha and Devkota 2010). The most severe impact of CC will
be felt in the form of melting glaciers that will impact the portable and irrigating
water supply to the vast human habitation throughout the Himalaya including India
(Barnett et al. 2005) and affect the livelihood economy of the South Asian nations
(Rashid et al. 2015).
Agrodiversity, an important sub-set of biodiversity, is highly dependent on
weather. The seasonal rainfall has negatively affected crop yield and food supply in
Himalayan region (Negi et al. 2016; Sharma and Shrestha 2016). Further, CC also
brings significant changes in the vegetation distribution and composition, affecting
the services and products available from the forest ecosystems (Leemans and
Eickhout 2004; Rashid et al. 2015). Mountain forests are recognized as a pool of
carbon that play important role in CC mitigation (Karky et al. 2013), and also essential for survival of mountain communities in Himalayan region. With the expected
changes in climate (Stocker et al. 2013), there is higher probability of shifts and
changes in the structure, composition, and function of forest ecosystems particularly in Himalayan region (Gottfried et al. 2012). According to Chaturvedi et al.
(2011), higher altitude ecosystems in Himalayan region are more vulnerable to
global warming. These changes have been reflected by shifts in vegetation distribution patterns in the Himalayan region (Grabherr et al. 1994; Grace et al. 2002) and
the changes in phenological trends (Gaira et al. 2014). The current understanding of
the potential response to global CC is constrained by the limited knowledge of forest dynamics and its inter-linkages with people (Chakraborty et al. 2016). Gautam
et al. (2013) have indicated a serious lack of systematic studies and empirical obserNeed for Reorienting Climate Change Research in the Himalaya: Balancing the Approach
and frequency of natural disasters (Aryal et al. 2014). Unprecedented changes in
climate (Dimri et al. 2013; Madhura et al. 2015) have adversely affected the livelihoods of inhabitant community.
Studies exhibit consistent trends in overall warming in the HKH region over the
past 100 years (Du et al. 2004; IPCC 2007; ICIMOD 2017), with indications that
temperatures are rising at higher rates in higher altitude areas. Model-based projections indicate that the warming will continue for the foreseeable future (Shrestha
and Devkota 2010). Temperature in the HKH region has been projected to increase
by 1–2 °C in general, and by 4–5 °C in high altitude regions by 2050 (Sathaye et al.
2006). The 1.5 °C world rise as agreed in Paris UNFCCC 2015, even if achieved
then temperature rise in HKH would be expected to be 2–3 times higher. The snow
and ice reserves in HKH represent a massive store of freshwater, providing resources
for energy, tourism, sanitation, and food production, among many other regional
needs. The demand for ecosystem goods and services is growing due to rapid population growth and other socioeconomic processes such as accelerating globalization, with the added stress of CC on ecosystems (Yi et al. 2017). This pressure has
negative impact on the ecosystem structure, functioning and delivery of goods and
services. It has been reported that the increasing trends of temperature has lead to
degradation of forests and rangelands, thus endangering livelihoods and biodiversity in Himalayan region (ICIMOD 2017). Climate driven changes in moisture
inputs in the form of snow and rainfall, and temporary storage in the form of glaciers, snow and groundwater are likely to have a profound effect on the flow regimes
of the major rivers (Shrestha and Devkota 2010). The most severe impact of CC will
be felt in the form of melting glaciers that will impact the portable and irrigating
water supply to the vast human habitation throughout the Himalaya including India
(Barnett et al. 2005) and affect the livelihood economy of the South Asian nations
(Rashid et al. 2015).
Agrodiversity, an important sub-set of biodiversity, is highly dependent on
weather. The seasonal rainfall has negatively affected crop yield and food supply in
Himalayan region (Negi et al. 2016; Sharma and Shrestha 2016). Further, CC also
brings significant changes in the vegetation distribution and composition, affecting
the services and products available from the forest ecosystems (Leemans and
Eickhout 2004; Rashid et al. 2015). Mountain forests are recognized as a pool of
carbon that play important role in CC mitigation (Karky et al. 2013), and also essential for survival of mountain communities in Himalayan region. With the expected
changes in climate (Stocker et al. 2013), there is higher probability of shifts and
changes in the structure, composition, and function of forest ecosystems particularly in Himalayan region (Gottfried et al. 2012). According to Chaturvedi et al.
(2011), higher altitude ecosystems in Himalayan region are more vulnerable to
global warming. These changes have been reflected by shifts in vegetation distribution patterns in the Himalayan region (Grabherr et al. 1994; Grace et al. 2002) and
the changes in phenological trends (Gaira et al. 2014). The current understanding of
the potential response to global CC is constrained by the limited knowledge of forest dynamics and its inter-linkages with people (Chakraborty et al. 2016). Gautam
et al. (2013) have indicated a serious lack of systematic studies and empirical obserNeed for Reorienting Climate Change Research in the Himalaya: Balancing the Approach