15 Drought and Insolvency: Case Study of the Producer-Buyer …
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Table 15.8
Measured flow, calculated flow (Q
c ), forecasted value (Q
f ), and errors (Er), in case of each model and of the Multi-model used for 6 months,
June–November, 1994 (Oltet River)
Month
Measured flow (m 3
s −1
)
Deterministic
statistical model (1)
Hydromet.
analogues method
(2)
Stochastic model
ARMA type (3)
Stanford type
model (4)
Multi-model
procedure (mm)
(5)
Q
c
Er (%)
Q
c
Er (%)
Q
c
Er (%)
Q
c
Er (%)
Q
f
Er (%)
m 3
s −1
m 3
s −1
m 3
s −1
m 3
s −1
m 3
s −1
VI
3.61
3.03
−16.07
3.12
−13.57
3.80
5.26
3.50
−3.05
3.36
−6.86
VII
3.18
3.36
5.66
3.8
19.50
3.26
2.52
3.20
0.63
3.41
7.08
VIII
1.19
1.09
−8.40
0.727
−38.91
1.26
5.88
1.50
26.05
1.48
24.42
IX
0.474
0.220
−53.59
0.624
31.65
0.550
16.03
0.900
89.87
0.46
−3.14
X
2.98
1.78
−40.27
2.5
−16.11
3.20
7.38
3.00
0.67
2.79
−6.50
XI
1.71
1.02
−40.35
1.49
−12.87
2.02
18.13
1.59
−7.02
1.59
−6.82