15 Drought and Insolvency: Case Study of the Producer-Buyer …
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events. The long-term hydrological forecast represents the forecast of the future value
of an element of the regime, of a water body, for a period extending beyond ten
days, from the issue of the forecast. Medium-term (extended) hydrological forecast
represents the forecast of the future value of an element of the regime of a water
body, for a period ending between two to ten days from the issue of the forecast.
The short-term hydrological forecast represents the forecast of the future value of
an element of the regime of a water body, for a period ending up to two days from
the issue of the forecast. Net volume is the value between the minimum and the
maximum exploitation levels.
Most of the time the hydrological forecasts concern rapidly occurring events (tidal
waves) or long-term events (seasonal). The very long ones (taking 12 months, for
instance) comprise a high degree of error (30–40%). The accuracy and opportunity
of the hydrological forecasts depend on several factors. Notably are the viability
and on the amount of hydrological and meteorological information, on the response
time of the catchment basin, on the rapidity of basin status at a certain point, on
the forecasting techniques or on the models used, and on how quickly beneficiaries
receive the forecast [11]. Regardless of the forecasted element, the forecasts issued
involve a degree of error, expressed in percentage of the real value or absolute values
(m
3 /s, m
3 , days, months, and so on).
The Centre of Hydrological Forecasts of the National Institute of Hydrology
and Water Management in Bucharest issues short-term (1–2 days), medium-term
(3–7 days) and long-term (monthly, seasonal and annual) hydrological forecasts.
This is done for a series of countrywide representative forecast sections, which are
also disseminated by Hidroelectrica S.A
The National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management in Bucharest—
through the National Centre of Hydrological Forecasts—elaborates a short-term
(1–2 days), medium-term (3–7 days), and long-term (monthly, seasonal, and annual)
hydrological forecasts for a series of forecast sections representative nationwide,
forecasts that were also disseminated by Hidroelectrica S.A. The precision of hydrological forecasts decreases, as the anticipation time increases; for this reason, the
long-term forecasts elaborated (mostly the seasonal and annual forecasts), are used
for only information and research purposes. They must be updated periodically by
medium- and short-term forecasts. Generally, long-term hydrological forecasts refer
to the mean monthly or annual flow regime, and they are 60% confirmed (40% error).
The National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management develops research
studies and provides services in the fields of hydrology, hydrogeology, and in the
management of water resources. They aim to support activities and decisions related
to the effective management of water resources, during hydrological risk events
(floods, droughts), and under normal situations, by the decision makers in the field:
“Romanian Waters” National Administration and the Ministry of Environment and
Forests.
The main fields of activity are the following:
– short, medium-, and long-term diagnoses and the hydrological forecasts of a
national and trans-border interest;
507
events. The long-term hydrological forecast represents the forecast of the future value
of an element of the regime, of a water body, for a period extending beyond ten
days, from the issue of the forecast. Medium-term (extended) hydrological forecast
represents the forecast of the future value of an element of the regime of a water
body, for a period ending between two to ten days from the issue of the forecast.
The short-term hydrological forecast represents the forecast of the future value of
an element of the regime of a water body, for a period ending up to two days from
the issue of the forecast. Net volume is the value between the minimum and the
maximum exploitation levels.
Most of the time the hydrological forecasts concern rapidly occurring events (tidal
waves) or long-term events (seasonal). The very long ones (taking 12 months, for
instance) comprise a high degree of error (30–40%). The accuracy and opportunity
of the hydrological forecasts depend on several factors. Notably are the viability
and on the amount of hydrological and meteorological information, on the response
time of the catchment basin, on the rapidity of basin status at a certain point, on
the forecasting techniques or on the models used, and on how quickly beneficiaries
receive the forecast [11]. Regardless of the forecasted element, the forecasts issued
involve a degree of error, expressed in percentage of the real value or absolute values
(m
3 /s, m
3 , days, months, and so on).
The Centre of Hydrological Forecasts of the National Institute of Hydrology
and Water Management in Bucharest issues short-term (1–2 days), medium-term
(3–7 days) and long-term (monthly, seasonal and annual) hydrological forecasts.
This is done for a series of countrywide representative forecast sections, which are
also disseminated by Hidroelectrica S.A
The National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management in Bucharest—
through the National Centre of Hydrological Forecasts—elaborates a short-term
(1–2 days), medium-term (3–7 days), and long-term (monthly, seasonal, and annual)
hydrological forecasts for a series of forecast sections representative nationwide,
forecasts that were also disseminated by Hidroelectrica S.A. The precision of hydrological forecasts decreases, as the anticipation time increases; for this reason, the
long-term forecasts elaborated (mostly the seasonal and annual forecasts), are used
for only information and research purposes. They must be updated periodically by
medium- and short-term forecasts. Generally, long-term hydrological forecasts refer
to the mean monthly or annual flow regime, and they are 60% confirmed (40% error).
The National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management develops research
studies and provides services in the fields of hydrology, hydrogeology, and in the
management of water resources. They aim to support activities and decisions related
to the effective management of water resources, during hydrological risk events
(floods, droughts), and under normal situations, by the decision makers in the field:
“Romanian Waters” National Administration and the Ministry of Environment and
Forests.
The main fields of activity are the following:
– short, medium-, and long-term diagnoses and the hydrological forecasts of a
national and trans-border interest;